• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ian

deltadog03 said:
Any thoughts? I feel like its around this area.
View attachment 121997
Click to expand...

IDK. Thoughts are dangerous with this system. lol

I completely agree. Recon took some dropsondes from their high altitude aircraft. They found the lowest pressures in the area that you marked, and there's definitely some higher winds to the N and NE. In fact, I'd say there's vigorous spin and convection all the way up to 15.4, 78 where 54MPH winds were found. The Northern Area is constantly producing electric storms. Hopefully we get this resolved in the next HH Flight, because I really want to go sleep. Going to the Bills/Dolphins Game tomorrow.

EDIT: NE Convection is wrapping around the dominant area on Satellite.
 
Last edited:
Stevo24 said:
Too bad the wedge never verifies that strong.
Click to expand...
We'd have to get closer and have way more sampling to know what the trough will end up doing as it moves through. The modeling likely shows an intensified wedge because the low is pulling the wedge down entirely, so what would only reach maybe N GA at the most would penetrate deep into AL and further south in GA and maybe SC too.
 
Chris says flooding not looking like a threat here in the upstate. Am I missing something because it looks like a huge threat.
 

Attachments

  • 0CB77256-6609-4BBC-A525-72812952EAAB.jpeg
    0CB77256-6609-4BBC-A525-72812952EAAB.jpeg
    565.9 KB · Views: 57
Stevo24 said:
Chris says flooding not looking like a threat here in the upstate. Am I missing something because it looks like a huge threat.
Click to expand...
Just reading his post and he mentions that he thinks this is a fast mover.

Edit: it should be noted that by the end of this week it will have been at least 2 weeks since a lot of these areas have seen significant rain, so the ground should be able to handle it to an extent.
 
So the position is being moved towards the area in Deltadog's image. Shear on the West Side probably from that 200MB trough and 500MB vorticity over Cuba, but I could be wrong. The Dvork method suggest we have a 52MPH storm, which is supported by the upper level 54MPH wind found during Recon.

A. 09L (IAN)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 14.9N

D. 77.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVR W
QUAD SUGGESTING SOME SHEAR. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2035Z 14.7N 76.5W SSMIS


...KONON
 
JHS said:
I would normally agree but we will have a LOT of dry air to overcome.
Click to expand...
Stevo24 said:
Maybe where you are located. My town it always underperforms. Always.
Click to expand...
Except that time in ‘14, when Greenville wasn’t supposed to get any freezing precip , and the wedge over performed and massive damage occurred into Athens Georgia!
The weaker more disorganized storm that’s showing on model runs today, will make for nice rainfall for a lot of the SE!
 
iGRXY said:
Maybe if we are talking about getting a wedge to work for snow but regular wedges over perform 9/10 times. Seen countless times where we are 5-10 degrees colder than models show from wedges
Click to expand...
Yep and they NEVER erode on time. They have kept us out of many severe weather outbreaks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top