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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Memphis NWS is also talking about the uncertainty of Ian:


Full attention will brought to Tropical Storm Ian (likely
hurricane before too long) by the middle of next week as it
meanders through the GOM and makes landfall somewhere along the
Gulf Coast. Lots of uncertainty wrt to track and intensity
remains, so making any long term forecast with accuracy remains
low at this time. Nonetheless, the ECMWF does bring the remnants
of this storm potentially into eastern portions of the Mid-South
by next weekend. Stay tuned.
LOL at KMEG..
 
The icon really isn't any worse than any of the 250 ensemble members that get posted on here and really it's right in line with the eastern camp. Doesn't mean it's right but it's not some off the wall track it's showing
As the 5pm stated the Ballon releases and G4 missions over the next 24 hours will settle them down hopefully
 
GFS feedback issues apparent as we have almost 48 hours straight of precip with several hours of heavy stuff but some how only ended up with an inch of QPF lol
Looking beautiful if you want rain in the upstate.
 
Dropsonde (14.8, 77.4)
1005mb (29.68 inHg)Surface (Sea Level)26.0°C (78.8°F)24.1°C (75°F)35° (from the NE)33 knots (38 mph)

54MPH Flight Level and 46MPH Ground Level Wind. (15.4,78).
 
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Maybe banter, don’t care of the track or intensity as long as we get much needed rain! Not to sound uncaring if the effects are bad along landfalling areas!
 
GFS feedback issues apparent as we have almost 48 hours straight of precip with several hours of heavy stuff but some how only ended up with an inch of QPF lol
This is what I was mentioning earlier. Firehose of moisture riding up and over CAD is gonna produce a widespread soaker…the GFS wants to focus all the QPF to those bright bands it shows at the coast and SC low country
 
Once we get a little more agreement on track we will probably start an Ian inland impact thread since there's likely to be a large heavy rain, gradient wind, tornado threat well removed from the CoC. Before anyone complains we as staff believe this makes sense and helps the posts flow better regarding impact. What doesn't make sense is a page like:

Recon data
Radar picture
How much rain for Jonesville
Tornado threat for South ga
It's windy in Greenville nc
Comment on Ian landfall point
Satellite image

This gets messy and confusing
 
Once we get a little more agreement on track we will probably start an Ian inland impact thread since there's likely to be a large heavy rain, gradient wind, tornado threat well removed from the CoC. Before anyone complains we as staff believe this makes sense and helps the posts flow better regarding impact. What doesn't make sense is a page like:

Recon data
Radar picture
How much rain for Jonesville
Tornado threat for South ga
It's windy in Greenville nc
Comment on Ian landfall point
Satellite image

This gets messy and confusing
Big kidney bean threat ?️
 
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