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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Meteorologist1999 said:
Does it bend back west?
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Brick Tamland said:
Florida is not that wide and flat. I think the intensity for it when it crosses FL and gets back in the Atlantic all depends on how fast it moves across FL. The longer it takes, the more it will weaken. If it moves fast and gets back out into the Atlantic, it could keep a lot of it's intensity and strengthen again before a second landfall.
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Florida is very much flat
 
also going to put my stake in the ground and say a reemergence in the atlantic won't change much, i generally think that after the florida landfall ian's angular momentum will be so out of whack that the ceiling will be a weak (but stout) cat 1. nothing to snuff at for sure but i just don't think any atlantic reemergence will be a big deal in the grand scheme
 
Lol I said a few days ago I thought the hurricane bombing out would be the big issue and that some of the outlier models on how strong it was are worth a watch ?. Something about these hurricanes the last 5 years ?
 
ILMRoss said:
def think this thing might be breathing the same rarified air as harvey, michael, other notable examples on approach
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I said before that Hurricanes are no longer behave as they have in the past with weakening on approach to land. These extremely warm waters that we have now compared to the past is just like jet fuel for these storms. Even where you get dry air and shear, storms either aren't weakening considerably or actually gain some strength if it's over very warm waters. Right now there's shear but its coming across the NE and with this thing moving NE it's really not having any affect and is venting the storm. At the end of the day you can have all these obstacles in the path of these storms, but if it's over 85 degree + water, it's almost obsolete at this point. It's almost like God dropped steroids in the ocean waters of the Gulf and Caribbean.
 
Sarasota could be in the bullseye. Looking at VRBO there are a ton of little cottages and bungalows on Siesta Key & Longoat. That area hasn't had anything like this in at least 50 years and I can't imagine what the damage would be. Hopefully everyone is evacuating.
 
kind of annoying to not have pressure readings, but last past just showed a pretty marked increase in temperature in the eye:

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usually a indicator of significant strengthening, that next sonde will probably be 954-956ish
 
iGRXY said:
I said before that Hurricanes are no longer behave as they have in the past with weakening on approach to land. These extremely warm waters that we have now compared to the past is just like jet fuel for these storms. Even where you get dry air and shear, storms either aren't weakening considerably or actually gain some strength if it's over very warm waters. Right now there's shear but its coming across the NE and with this thing moving NE it's really not having any affect and is venting the storm. At the end of the day you can have all these obstacles in the path of these storms, but if it's over 85 degree + water, it's almost obsolete at this point. It's almost like God dropped steroids in the ocean waters of the Gulf and Caribbean.
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I disagree to an extent. The big hits over the past few years have much more to do with timing. For instance in 04-05 the big storms reached their peaks early as opposed to the past few years where they tend to bumble around until right before landfall to finally put it together and go haywire. Now what has caused that can be debated.
 
Arcc said:
I disagree to an extent. The big hits over the past few years have much more to do with timing. For instance in 04-05 the big storms reached their peaks early as opposed to the past few years where they tend to bumble around until right before landfall to finally put it together and go haywire. Now what has caused that can be debated.
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See I disagree and chop it up to clear climate change making fueling these storms more and more obvious.
 
What types of impacts might be expected on east coast of Florida (Daytona or north) if Ian decides to pop over to the Atlantic if it comes in near tampa?
 
iGRXY said:
See I disagree and chop it up to clear climate change making fueling these storms more and more obvious.
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If this makes a 2nd landfall (IF) what affects will this have on us in the upstate? Less rain?
 
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