Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Tornadocane]

This battle between areas that want to become the dominant COC is pretty amazing. You have the one further SW with some Mid-Level Vorticity producing convection, and then you have the one trying to get going North of 15 Degrees that has had intense convection producing lightening. Clearly the best instability is towards the North. The strongest instability and better upper level environment is clearly on the North Side.

This looks like it's going to blow up at any second.

 

[Tornadocane]

 

[BHS1975]

View attachment 121968

Yeap definitely looks to be tightening up.


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[deltadog03]

View attachment 121968

Let’s see what takes over

 

[vsublazer]

 

[Tornadocane]

Yeap definitely looks to be tightening up.


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Oh Yeah. Oh Yeah. This is going to organize quickly. Every frame looks like the system is about to get stacked. You can see the clouds at various levels starting to flow in the same general direction. Though it's tougher to see the lower levels now. Recon is going to find a completely different system on its next journey.

 

[Zander98al]

Slower consolidation of a center has really encouraged this westward track. I think you'll probably see a few more westward ticks until it's Conjealed.

 

[Arcc]

And we have seen this happen frequently with systems in the Gulf the last few years.

Ian is crossing the west Caribbean under very good conditions, it’s definitely gonna bomb.

 

[Tornadocane]

14.567N 76.550W

1006.0 mb

 

[JHS]

Has there ever been a CAD during a TC before? Because that seems new lol

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Irma had it. Temps were in the upper 50's here as it went through the area.

 

[jeremyt]

And if the models keep shifting it further west, that would mean more time in the Gulf and more time to strengthen before landfall.

Actually more time to get sheared and ingest dry air.

 

[Arcc]

The sky is the limit in the west Caribbean and Yucatán channel. There is a reason why monsters like Allen, Gilbert, Wilma, Emily, Ivan, Mitch and Dean roamed here. If this can get a solid core developed, a show is nearly guaranteed.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The sky is the limit in the west Caribbean and Yucatán channel. There is a reason why monsters like Allen, Gilbert, Wilma, Emily, Ivan, Mitch and Dean roamed here. If this can get a solid core developed, a show is nearly guaranteed.

I think we're going to see it strengthen rapidly like so many others have down there.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

14.567N 76.550W

1006.0 mb

That matches the satellite presentation rather well too. I think this is the one.

 

[Tornadocane]

19:55:00Z

14.817N 76.283W

1005.8 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)

Recon is creeping NE.

 

[Tornadocane]

That matches the satellite presentation rather well too. I think this is the one.

I agree. There is just so much instability in that area.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

18z ......Looks like HWRF might have the right idea.
Moved west and intensity increased.

View attachment 121966

View attachment 121967

The devil is in the details.. most of these models have a landfall around 120 which you can see a majority of the models begin to significantly reduce the strength of the hurricane. This will be unlike our usual rapid intensifications up until landfall where we will probably see a beauty of a storm over water which then gets shredded and beaten up before landfall. Impacts will still be high though regardless but certainly good to see if you are living near the landfall location.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Key take away from this is where is our center once we get to 80W are we close to if not on 15N or are we sitting at 13-14N.. closer to 15 we are by that time means east camp will win out. Closer to 13-14N west camp will win out.

 

[Tornadocane]

15.000N 76.100W

1005.7 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)

-

I know no King but the King on 15N whose name is Ian. I

 

[Stormsfury]

Looking over visible satellite imagery loop, appears to be there's a larger centrifugal mechanism gyre around 14.1°N, 77.0°W or so.