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Tropical Hurricane Ian

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BHS1975 said:
Euro way east caving to the ukie.


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looks like eps has several members out into the atlantic again with a SC / GA landfall. Doesn't get far enough offshore to really gain any strength though would be my guess. That high centered over NY needs to be further north or slower to move in if we want to see this clear into the Atlantic far enough to restrengthen
 
000
WTNT64 KNHC 270831
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
430 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER WESTERN
CUBA...

Satellite and radar data indicate that the center of Ian has made
landfall just southwest of the town of La Coloma in the Pinar Del
Rio Province of Cuba at 430 AM EDT...0830 UTC. Maximum sustained
winds at landfall were estimated to be 125 MPH (205 KM/H). This
makes Ian a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale.

SUMMARY OF 430 AM EDT...0830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 83.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
 
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Arcc said:
I was originally south of Tampa at 110mph -120mph. However looking how the HMON is constantly 115knts and the HWRF is 115knts to 120knts just west of Tampa, I might have to raise it up. Chance of a Cat 4 hitting Tampa is quickly rising.
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Nah going S of there.


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NHC. 5 am
No more gradual decrease....just "bam" at 120 mph.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.7N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.4N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.3N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 31.7N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
 
Henry2326 said:
NHC. 5 am
No more gradual decrease....just "bam" at 120 mph.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.7N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 25.4N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.3N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 31.7N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
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Could be more when it hits that bathtub near the keys.


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deltadog03 said:
Good morning everyone! I hope everyone is prepared in the path of this Hurricane for sure. Hope yall get some inland rains for everyone as well. Here is the current steering map.
View attachment 122249
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If this upper level steering flow map is any indication than Ian might be going across Florida after landfall and back out to sea for a second landfall somewhere in the Carolinas as a growing number of models are showing. These shifts east in the major models maybe be portending a trend that needs to be watched. The water temperatures off the Carolina coasts are in the lower eighties so there could be some minor intensification if Ian gets far enough east into the Gulf Stream before making a second landfall.
 
weather bubba said:
If this upper level steering flow map is any indication than Ian might be going across Florida after landfall and back out to sea for a second landfall somewhere in the Carolinas as a growing number of models are showing. These shifts east in the major models maybe be portending a trend that needs to be watched. The water temperatures off the Carolina coasts are in the lower eighties so there could be some minor intensification if Ian gets far enough east into the Gulf Stream before making a second landfall.
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Now, the flow is changing for sure and that is just the current map, but gives you and idea for sure.
 
KyloG said:
Somehow the 6z GFs was worse than the 0z. ?

View attachment 122252
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Is that 53.9 inches of rain I see near Tampa? That would be an unbelievable amount of rain for any one given area. Even the 33.3 inch number above it would bring unheard of rainfall totals and catastrophic flooding for that area.
 
Ian must like the Cuban Cigars. I'snt the 1st time I've seen a cane strengthen, hold steady over land. If its flat, wet/humid enough, It can happen. Everglades area , southern LA comes to mind. Also if its forward speed is fast, getting vented just right , It can aid a Cane over land maintaining its strength.
 
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