Tropical Hurricane Ian

[accu35]

Recon finding the center maybe south of 14 north. Close to where gfs initialize

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I would normally agree but we will have a LOT of dry air to overcome.

Doesn’t really matter when Ian is acting to pull the moisture offshore over the Carolina’s

 

[BHS1975]

Doesn’t really matter when Ian is acting to pull the moisture offshore over the Carolina’s

Yeap the soupy air will be just off shore and you pull that over the CAD you will get tons of precip.


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[Shawn]

12z Euro initialized the system about where the 12z GFS did. Question is if the Euro will yank it SW as much as the GFS did in future frames

 

[Chazwin]

Hopefully the Euro and Canadian models are right about precip. The GFS dry slots many of us and I'm afraid it may be right with the dry air wrapping around. It's a shame that the 70 degree dewpoints are long gone with this system possibly coming in. If this does miss, it'll be another 2+ weeks before we get another shot at any real rain.

The GFS is having its normal convective feedback issues which is normal this far out. The fact is it’s showing a firehouse of moisture coming in over the top of a CAD… we all know that’s a recipe for heavy rainfall

 

[smast16]

Big rain with no wind in tropical systems is worse than cold and no snow

No son, I want the rain up here and I'd like to keep the trees too. So all rain and no bite it perfect!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Euro way sw already

 

[Shawn]

Yep, Euro does it. Weaker than GFS though. 1004 vs 996.. so not much

 

[KyloG]

Euro ticking sw

 

[weather bubba]

The chart conveys an overinflated degree of confidence with this storm in both track and intensity. There’s nothing here beneficial to the public that the NHC cone doesn’t bring. Nothing about this feels like a good faith effort to inform the public and instead just feels like clickbait. Charts like this give mets a bad name in my opinion and damage credibility. You’re technically not wrong but just because it could happen doesn’t mean it should be published

I do think this chart is hyperbole and I see your point. The real problem with charts like this is that many people who know little or nothing about the weather take forecasts like this as gospel rather than looking at other data and sources to make decisions. The NWS should be the first source that the public should go to for details on possible impacts from an approaching tropical system of any type.

 

[KyloG]

GFs vs euro day 3

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFs vs euro day 3

View attachment 121955

Trough strength ??‍

 

[KyloG]

GFS win ?‍

 

[Metwannabe]

Yikes for Tampa, strengthening on approach too

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS win ?‍

View attachment 121957

Still think GFS is too far west. I like the euro with very slow moves west but to think this thing goes any further west than big bend is still hard for me to buy right now .. especially with recon still having a hard time finding the exact center..

 

[Henry2326]

HWRF and HMON shifting west, at same position, but not as far west as GFS.
HMON shredded on approach.
But....
HWRF at 955.....hope that doesn't verify.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Trend of the day has been further west with Ian. We have seen the track of tropical systems change just 24 hours from landfall, so not surprising to see this.

 

[NoSnowATL]

HWRF has me in close to the center.

 

[Zander98al]

HWRF and HMON shifting west, at same position, but not as far west as GFS.
HMON shredded on approach.
But....
HWRF at 955.....hope that doesn't verify.

View attachment 121960

View attachment 121961

Will be some pretty impressive inland flooding and storm surge in the eastern panhandle if the HWRF OR HMON are correct. Honestly this would be devastating for this area as Michael ravaged this area a few years ago.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

To my point,
We need this pin pointed and locked down before we say which model has a better handle on things.. that’s 3 low level centers competing..