• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ian

UK looks to be out in the Atlantic day 3 and over SC coast day 4. Off to bed.
 
Looks like Tampa is the area the models are focusing in on for landfall. Question is will it go inland after landfall, or back over the Atlantic and make a second landfall in the SE?
 
Tropical tidbits doesn't even have a color scale for the raw amount of rain for tampa.

pivotal reads out 45 inches AND its still lightly raining


11.png
 
iGRXY said:
If you want to see just how serious the rainfall with this thing is going to get. Just look at the current radar over Florida. Huge bands already rolling in from the interaction between Ian and the stalled front over central Florida. This trough is serious business and you can bet there’s going to be some big totals all along that from as it moves north.
Click to expand...
The flooding has already started in Miami. This was my college campus this afternoon after a 2 hour downpour; water was thigh deep on most roads around campus. Water was shooting through manhole covers throughout low lying areas as the sewers backed up. Wasn’t too out of the ordinary as these are occasional occurrences during thunderstorms, but will get worse over the next day as rain becomes more consistent and heavy. Will also be concerning if surge starts to compound the flooding. Predictions are only for one to two feet of saltwater inundation max here, but that could be enough to put the drainage system over the top during the most extreme downpours. Fortunately, Miami should definitely avoid the worst of the storm. However, if the surge and rainfall in Tampa become as bad as some predictions, they have a historic situation on their hands.04FB9F98-E1DB-4694-A0AB-567DDAFE2708.png
 
Well, GFS's ultimate track gets Eastern AL involved with substantial rain this time.. and all of us, really.
 
Canadian looks to head to the big bend again, maybe a bit inland over northern FL
 
Yep better maps show that canadian is well east of it's last run.. id be getting out of tampa bay
 
So we still have the 2 camps. One keeps it moving up along the east coast and the other slows or stalls over eastern gulf Tampa area
 
Shaggy said:
So we still have the 2 camps. One keeps it moving up along the east coast and the other slows or stalls over eastern gulf Tampa area
Click to expand...

Yeh, the RGEM is east of 18z and shows a much more ominous track right into Tampa area while it's global bro skirts slightly west....

RGEM puts 36+ inches in Tampa.... so GFS is not alone
 
brendan123 said:
The flooding has already started in Miami. This was my college campus this afternoon after a 2 hour downpour; water was thigh deep on most roads around campus. Water was shooting through manhole covers throughout low lying areas as the sewers backed up. Wasn’t too out of the ordinary as these are occasional occurrences during thunderstorms, but will get worse over the next day as rain becomes more consistent and heavy. Will also be concerning if surge starts to compound the flooding. Predictions are only for one to two feet of saltwater inundation max here, but that could be enough to put the drainage system over the top during the most extreme downpours. Fortunately, Miami should definitely avoid the worst of the storm. However, if the surge and rainfall in Tampa become as bad as some predictions, they have a historic situation on their hands.View attachment 122225
Click to expand...

I've had 4 inches of rain today in my gauge, and 2 inches within the last 3 hours. We might receive 8-12" totals, which is mind-boggling given our distance from the COC.
 
GFS parks rain for about 72 hours here but somehow is spitting out 3-4” totals. They’ve got to do something about these feedback issues. It makes the model partially useless if you can’t even get accurate totals or surface reflectivity
 
Shawn said:
Yeh, the RGEM is east of 18z and shows a much more ominous track right into Tampa area while it's global bro skirts slightly west....

RGEM puts 36+ inches in Tampa.... so GFS is not alone
Click to expand...
I used to completely dismiss those insane amounts off hand thinking there’s no way they could verify, but after seeing them be right in Houston with Harvey and Wilmington with Florence, we know absolutely they can verify
 
Chazwin said:
I used to completely dismiss those insane amounts off hand thinking there’s no way they could verify, but after seeing them be right in Houston with Harvey and Wilmington with Florence, we know absolutely they can verify
Click to expand...

I am ashamed to admit that I did not watch/study Harvey very much. Did it have weak steering/got stuck too?
 
What I’m nervous about is most models have a period of intensification tomorrow past Cuba so aside from what’s happening tonight with the strength this thing will have a period of time to do something else once it’s past Cuba.
 
Shawn said:
I am ashamed to admit that I did not watch/study Harvey very much. Did it have weak steering/got stuck too?
Click to expand...
Yes… it stalled in a position right after landfall that just pumped a firehose right into Houston.
 
On average a tropical cyclone drops around 6-12” in a 12-24 hour period generally so to have one sit there for 36 hours and nearly put 4 feet of rain down over one area is absolutely astonishing
 
The 19 UTC NBM has an average below 9 inches for Tampa.. Lets hope that's what verifies, idk.. will have to see what it says after these 00z
 
And the gefs spread opens at 90 hours. This is gonna be a tricky one. At 18z there was a strong cluster in the NE gom and none over water in the Atlantic hardly but now it's spread out and has a few more off the Florida east coast.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20220927_002822.jpg
    Screenshot_20220927_002822.jpg
    530.8 KB · Views: 23
  • Screenshot_20220927_002846.jpg
    Screenshot_20220927_002846.jpg
    608.2 KB · Views: 23
The rain totals on the GFS weren’t nice to Tampa, but at least the storm surge is lessened because the center is south.
 
Yeah, Ian trying to go super Saiyan before the Cuba visit.
recon_AF301-1809A-IAN.png

The eye has also shrunk 10 NM since the previous pass also.
778
URNT12 KNHC 270442
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022
A. 27/03:56:10Z
B. 21.38 deg N 083.66 deg W
C. 700 mb 2783 m
D. 961 mb
E. 305 deg 8 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C22
H. 97 kt
I. 185 deg 8 nm 03:53:30Z
J. 285 deg 91 kt
K. 187 deg 11 nm 03:52:30Z
L. 86 kt
M. 040 deg 18 nm 04:02:00Z
N. 135 deg 96 kt
O. 042 deg 22 nm 04:03:30Z
P. 10 C / 3048 m
Q. 17 C / 3042 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 1809A IAN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 96 KT 042 / 22 NM 04:03:30Z
;
 
Possible Zone B will follow A with a mandatory if these solutions look likely tomorrow
 
ILMRoss said:
Unsure Tampa, Florida, and the federal gov at large really have an idea of how catastrophic this is going to end up being
Click to expand...
The only thing that could really save Tampa from a historically destructive storm would be a landfall to the south and east that stops the worst of the surge from funneling into Tampa Bay, and even then the wind damage in the Tampa area would still likely be extensive. In any case, somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast is likely to face one of the worst hurricanes for the state in recent memory.
 
Chazwin said:
I used to completely dismiss those insane amounts off hand thinking there’s no way they could verify, but after seeing them be right in Houston with Harvey and Wilmington with Florence, we know absolutely they can verify
Click to expand...
I grew up outside Houston with Alvin's 43 in in 24 hours in mind (Tropical Storm Claudette, July 1979). Out that way on the way to the beach after a good rain, one might see people jet skiing down the full ditches.

abc13.com

Tropical Storm Claudette dumped more than 40 inches of rain in 1979

In 1979, Tropical Storm Claudette dumped 42 inches of rain in the Alvin area in just 24 hours. That record still stands 40 years later.
abc13.com abc13.com
Not even Hurricane Harvey could top that rainfall production in one day. Harvey's highest 24-hour rainfall was 25.6 inches.
...
Clear Creek was a mile wide in some spots.
Click to expand...

texascooppower.com

Alvin’s Deluge: It Reigns

Gulf Coast town holds U.S. record for greatest rainfall in 24 hours
texascooppower.com texascooppower.com
They had no sense of what was to come, but their dogs must have. When the Klappers turned in for the evening, the dogs hid under their bed. At around 2 a.m., one of the dogs jumped up on the bed and woke Richard. He nudged it back down to the floor, but it didn’t land with the patter of paws; it landed with a splash. Richard turned on his bedside lamp and realized their entire bedroom was flooded.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
The ukie may have a better handle on this due to weak steering. It's been rock steady thus far.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top