Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Wild Weather Monger]

There is a LOT of very cool dry and stable air to be ingested if it landfalls on the northern gulf coast.

Here we can see the dry continental air as it begins to penetrate the storm's core. A rapidly weakening half-a-cane making landfall would be the result.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Dang, do we have a center trying to consolidate this far south? If so, the westward shifts may not be done.

 

[ILMRoss]

Dang, do we have a center trying to consolidate this far south? If so, the westward shifts may not be done.

It’s hard to say, it’s still really unorganized at the surface, no discernible pressure gradients or anything like that. But yeah if the LLC consolidates somewhere in this primordial soup of light winds, it may wind up south of 14N

 

[TerryInTucker]

Any chance this thing becomes Irma Part Deux?

 

[Henry2326]

Here we can see the dry continental air as it begins to penetrate the storm's core. A rapidly weakening half-a-cane making landfall would be the result.

The comparison to Euro shows the difference in timing .

 

[deltadog03]

Let’s all be transparent here, right? For the crowd who wants/thinks west y’all understand this is likely** to be rapidly weakening right? The east crowd/people/path, that’s the path that can sustain and deeper storm. I hope that didn’t make anyone mad, just trying to set expectations.

 

[deltadog03]

It’s hard to say, it’s still really unorganized at the surface, no discernible pressure gradients or anything like that. But yeah if the LLC consolidates somewhere in this primordial soup of light winds, it may wind up south of 14N

To me that is key today, where does the LLC setup. I think northern part wins out, but might not. If does prob east in the end, if not further west possible.

 

[Henry2326]

Let’s all be transparent here, right? For the crowd who wants/thinks west y’all understand this is likely** to be rapidly weakening right? The east crowd/people/path, that’s the path that can sustain and deeper storm. I hope that didn’t make anyone mad, just trying to set expectations.

Ha....the only one that matters is mother nature....she just hasn't told us yet what she wants.

 

[Stevo24]

Let’s all be transparent here, right? For the crowd who wants/thinks west y’all understand this is likely** to be rapidly weakening right? The east crowd/people/path, that’s the path that can sustain and deeper storm. I hope that didn’t make anyone mad, just trying to set expectations.

As long as I get a ton of rain idc if it’s weakening.

 

[Shaggy]

Big rain with no wind in tropical systems is worse than cold and no snow

 

[Arcc]

The only thing I’m confused about is the idea that with this western shift the storm should be weaker. Why? Just days ago this was forecasted to be a major hurricane anywhere in the gulf? Why now all the sudden it has shear to deal with?

It’s not sudden. The models were showing this issue for the northern gulf from the get go.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Big rain with no wind in tropical systems is worse than cold and no snow

People need a break and wishing a destructive storm on people is one of the most awful things one could hear of

Is there no care for your fellow neighbor and man?

 

[Tornadocane]

People need a break and wishing a destructive storm on people is one of the most awful things one could hear of

Is there no care for your fellow neighbor and man?

Stop it. There's always one guy that grandstands about the how the rest of us are immoral for expressing excitement for strong or destructive storms and extreme weather events. You think we don't understand the human toll? I was an EMT for 5 years because I liked the excitement of emergencies, but it doesn't mean I wanted to see people die from heart attacks or see a fire burn down someones apartment. It's going to happen regardless of my wishes, and I'm the one that's preparing my friends and family.

This is a meteorology forum. I wait years for a Major Hurricane or a Record Snowstorm to come chugging my way so I can stand outside and experience extreme wind, rain and snow with my front extremity hanging out of my front jean pocket. I get erect for record high minimum temperatures. Tracking this storm right now is the most fun I'm going to have all year, and it may be for the other poster who you unfairly claim is "Wishing a destructive storm on people". No.

 

[Shaggy]

People need a break and wishing a destructive storm on people is one of the most awful things one could hear of

Is there no care for your fellow neighbor and man?

I'm not wishing anything on anyone. Nor am I denying I like extreme weather.

Bet you wish for snow all the time yet snow account's for literally HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of injuries and deaths a year.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

we are all weather geeks on here, no one needs to call anyone out...

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

What do y’all think of this?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ILMRoss]

What do y’all think of this?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fear mongering rubbish, whoever greenlit this should be ashamed

 

[Tornadocane]

I'm not wishing anything on anyone. Nor am I denying I like extreme weather.

Bet you wish for snow all the time yet snow account's for literally HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of injuries and deaths a year.

IDK... It sounded like "you just want people to die." LOL. ?


We got history Shaggy. I'm not letting anyone take shots at you. That's my job.

 

[Henry2326]

11 am

 

[accu35]

I would say this, if the storm decides to come further west like into western PH, it will indeed weaken. Even though it weakens there should still be plenty of rain gusty TS winds that could exceed up to cat 1 territory. So there should be some wild weather still. According to the Hurricane models, the pretty much stay strong up until landfall.