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Tropical Hurricane Ian

JHS said:
That is a very big shift by the Euro and it is probably going to be right. Comes out near Daytona and I'm willing to bet that if the run kept going it never would make the north turn or would do so in time to just scrape the Outer Banks of NC. The other models will follow suit with their next run and this will probably not be coming back west.
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Your post are getting so ridiculous
 
Brick Tamland said:
It seems forecasting the track of hurricanes has become harder instead of easier, especially ones in the Gulf.
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brick i love you but i couldn't disagree more man. i think that there's an inflated feeling of uncertainty from both the variety of products, the reliance on ensembles and more 18z and 6z runs which increase the serialization of tracking these things. when i was in high school tracking irene i did not have tropical tidbits or any great resources like that; outside of official forecasts i had the gfs via the university of wyoming website, i had jeff masters wunderblog comment section and i had wxrisk on facebook, that was my diet. if i were in that position now i would have a vastly superior diet of weather consumption. there likely were greater forecasting battles, they just werent visible to us. as far as forecast quality i think it gets better every year; i think the NHC has been absolutely stellar in this storm in particular, that track had barely budged and the intensity forecast has held firm.
 
ILMRoss said:
brick i love you but i couldn't disagree more man. i think that there's an inflated feeling of uncertainty from both the variety of products, the reliance on ensembles and more 18z and 6z runs which increase the serialization of tracking these things. when i was in high school tracking irene i did not have tropical tidbits or any great resources like that; outside of official forecasts i had the gfs via the university of wyoming website, i had jeff masters wunderblog comment section and i had wxrisk on facebook, that was my diet. if i were in that position now i would have a vastly superior diet of weather consumption. there likely were greater forecasting battles, they just werent visible to us. as far as forecast quality i think it gets better every year; i think the NHC has been absolutely stellar in this storm in particular, that track had barely budged and the intensity forecast has held firm.
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Way off topic but thanks for making us all feel even older!
 
Code: 
 Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092022 220927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.

 Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       79.5%       61.5%       70.5%
 25kt / 24h       90.2%       84.2%       87.2%
 30kt / 24h       85.9%       84.1%       85.0%
 35kt / 24h       79.3%       84.1%       81.7%
 40kt / 24h       79.3%       82.7%       81.0%
 45kt / 36h       79.3%       57.0%       68.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.2%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       32.6%       23.0%       27.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%        4.0%       16.8%
 
recon_AF301-1809A-IAN_dropsonde9_20220927-0102.png

964 mb and 21 kt in the dropsonde which equals 962 mb..
 
If a king tide starts at only 6.5 feet in Charleston and 9 foot is major flooding, the high tide from Tuesday until Saturday is right at six feet. You get a three or four foot storm surge and downtown Charleston is a soup bowl.

Providing these easterly solutions continue to mount, that’s gonna be a big deal.
 
Arcc said:
The trough is slightly deeper over the east coast, but the key difference is speed of Ian. This run the storm moves slightly faster and equals a big jump east.
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so then that begs the question how fast is he moving and is he ahead of modeling and if so by how much. He has been in the eastern part of his cone for most of the day
 
Arcc said:
The trough is slightly deeper over the east coast, but the key difference is speed of Ian. This run the storm moves slightly faster and equals a big jump east.
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wouldnt slightly faster mean a slight jump ? Why would there be a big jump, if its only slightly faster ?
 
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