Shocking that the models would overdo an eastern trough 5 days out...not.
A sobering reminder for when the epic 5-day snowstorms this winter wind up in the Ohio Valley lol.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
A sobering reminder for when the epic 5-day snowstorms this winter wind up in the Ohio Valley lol.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
When I made the comment the other day if the NW trend was only applicable in the winter it was tongue in cheek but also knew in my mind, I’ve seen this movie waaaaay too many times.
And just like winter, we're left with a CAD rain along with a miserable NE wind to chill ya to the bone.
Well, that's an interesting-looking satellite pic. Best looking fake eye I think I've ever seen.
Good! We need it!
lexxnchloe
Member
Im hoping it just gets stuck in the GOM and dies out. Sunny is better than rain.
EPS
Clearly still a long way to go here but looking more likely the SE in general will deal with a bigger flood threat than anything from this
Overnight, shear has been replaced with outflow in every quadrant. As has been modeled, once a core consolidates, it's clear it's bombs away.
Winds are still light and I think LLC is still messy. Recon kind of agrees. It will be interesting to see
Where a LLC can truly take ownership and where that is within the convection will be super key for track as well.
Where a LLC can truly take ownership and where that is within the convection will be super key for track as well.
Man waking up to see that a sheared TC is finally surrounded by convection is like running into an old high school friend at the bar who was a loser then but got it together and has a nice job and a girlfriend now. Proud of you ian ?
iGRXY
Member
I love the EURO and EPS just as much as the next guy and 9/10 times you’re smart to go with that but when those 2 were clearly the furthest eastern outliers especially compared to the hurricane models/spaghetti graphs, I think it was safe to say that the GFS may have been on to something with the more western track. Especially when it was showing deep slow moving troughs that let’s face it, rarely materializes here. Still plenty of time to see changes and I could see a slight tick to the east but it appears the big bend to down around Tampa look prime for a landfall then a quick turn to the N and NW
I agree.....I only say be careful, because the hurricane models run off the GFS conditions *I am pretty sure* someone correct me if I am wrong please.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hot off the press…West again from 6Z
I think something near 15N could take over the center at some point today.
BHS1975
Member
The UK met has nailed tracks in the past and looks like it may nail this one.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The only thing I’m confused about is the idea that with this western shift the storm should be weaker. Why? Just days ago this was forecasted to be a major hurricane anywhere in the gulf? Why now all the sudden it has shear to deal with?
I haven't studied the naps, but my guess is shear.
There is a LOT of very cool dry and stable air to be ingested if it landfalls on the northern gulf coast.
Henry2326
Member
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian this morning, and should provide additional data on Ian's structure
and intensity.
and intensity.