Not without a hell of a lot more forward speed
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Henry2326
Member
8 pm NHC....hanging with their story.
00z models.....more confidence.
00z models.....more confidence.
I don’t think they make any changes to the forecast cone until the 11pm advisory. I think the 8am/pm advisories keep the same forecast cone as the 5pm/am advisories.
Shaggy
Member
Pretty clear indication this isn't gonna be much as it runs the gulf or the east coast depending on track. Initial landfall if central or southern Florida will be bad though
I will say this with confidence….. panhandle landfall=weaker cane
Central or S FL landfall= possible major
Central or S FL landfall= possible major
Man this is incorrect.
Taylor C
Member
00z tropical intensity models show as follows:
7am CST Sunday= tropical storm
7pm CST Sunday= tropical storm nearing hurricane strength
7am CST Monday= category 1
7pm CST Monday= category 2
7am CST Tuesday= category 3
7pm CST Tuesday= category 3
7am CST Wednesday= category 3
7pm CST Wednesday= weakening
7am CST Sunday= tropical storm
7pm CST Sunday= tropical storm nearing hurricane strength
7am CST Monday= category 1
7pm CST Monday= category 2
7am CST Tuesday= category 3
7pm CST Tuesday= category 3
7am CST Wednesday= category 3
7pm CST Wednesday= weakening
jeremyt
Member
Now Ian!
Shear definitely decreasing now.
Shaggy
Member
Found this to be am interesting tidbit.
The track models
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous
forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give
more credence to the position of the official forecast.
The track models
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous
forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give
more credence to the position of the official forecast.
A big 24 hours for this system. Still have a bit of competing vort maxes. EURO says something different vs GFS. both ENS suites are different as well. Tried to show the EURO with it.
I agree!
Man what the hell is recon doing right now, is it movie night at the base
Brent
Member
I know it had mechanical issues earlier. Those planes are so old
iGRXY
Member
Through 33 the GFS is a touch weaker and southeast of 18z
Brick Tamland
Member
Major hurricane at landfall? Didn't expect that with the curve into FL instead of going further in the Gulf.
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Lots of Juice with this one at this point.
