Tropical Ian Ianland Thread

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Cary_Snow95 said:
I think a general 3-6” with locally higher amounts across NC is likely. We likely see models increase returns as we get closer. About 48 hours of moisture fetch from directly offshore
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There is some really high end rain potential for us. Especially if the coastal front gets drawn inland and we can focus some convective bands on Saturday. The Euro is actually a respectable tornado threat for much of Ga/SC/SENC on Saturday and Sunday.

The one thing to watch will be the mid level dry punch. It'll cut down on totals but it may enhance the severe threat
 
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SD said:
There is some really high end rain potential for us. Especially if the coastal front gets drawn inland and we can focus some convective bands on Saturday. The Euro is actually a respectable tornado threat for much of Ga/SC/SENC on Saturday and Sunday.

The one thing to watch will be the mid level dry punch. It'll cut down on totals but it may enhance the severe threat
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Agreed. This is just a firehose look. Like you said drag the front inland a bit and we get dumped on all Saturday afternoon. I could see someone getting a 10” lollipop given the dynamics here
 
JHS said:
That dry slot will keep amounts WAY down here. We need the 70 degree dewpoints back.
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The EURO just dropped over 5" here and pushing 4" in union. You're looking at individual model runs too much. You want the CAD dome for enhancement and a coverage. GFS has a reflectivity issue and feedback issues. I would be shocked if 4" isn't the average across the upstate with a lot of places getting more.
 
Yep. As a whole the NBM has only increased in rain amounts here per run; and I'm sure it's the same for everywhere else too.
 
Moist
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Just looking at this from my backyard point of view, is this going to start Friday and go into Sunday? Or is it looking more like Saturday now for the start? Upstate sc.
 
Stevo24 said:
Just looking at this from my backyard point of view, is this going to start Friday and go into Sunday? Or is it looking more like Saturday now for the start? Upstate sc.
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Thursday night will start seeing bands likely coming up from the SE. Friday morning-Sunday morning/afternoon.
 
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GFS back with the 5” drought buster over this way. That’s why you can’t live and die by every run showing different amounts. Just look at the overall structure and realize that odds are, we are about to get slammed with rain
 
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We do need the rain here and it looks like Ian is going to supply it! I believe the wife and I might reconsider our plans to attend her home county fair on Saturday although I think it would be interesting to walk around in intermittent tropical downpours.
 
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