Cary_Snow95
Member
NWS RAH calling for 3-7” across NC
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Tropical Ian Ianland Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
If this hook into sc comes to fruition it make cut down on totals. We really want it to stay due south of us for as long as possible before it punches dry air in
Two things with that… yes there would probably be a period of dry air punching in.. especially for the eastern 3rd of NC, but as the low then would turn back NE, a good bit of rain would likely pivot back through. Also where that dry air punches in could also be an area that sees a risk of severe weather
Classic along LOT jet here in the euro 
Even if the center went from CHS to RDU it would rain well west in NC/SC
Even if the center went from CHS to RDU it would rain well west in NC/SC
Better hope the NAM is pulling its LR shenanigans
Iv already accepted my defeat as I watch this go further and further east. I went from looking at 4+ inches of rain to now being lucky if we get 2.
Your still very likely to pick up well more than 2 inches of rain. As I said on the other thread, with jet dynamics coming in from the west, the QPF response will be much further west than what the LR NAM is showing. This is something that the globals are picking up on with how far back to the west they have the rainfall going.
ICON probably came on shore at Bulls Bay near Awendaw. If that happened, that’s the best case scenario. It’s in the middle of a large protected area with limited population
JHS
Member
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 pm Tuesday: Anomalous upper trough is forecast to move
quickly off the East Coast early in the short term...too fast
(unfortunately for us) to "grab" T.C. Ian and send it into the
western Atlantic. Ian is therefore expected to find itself within a
nebulous flow pattern...wobbling slowly north across the Florida
peninsula at the start of the period. That being the case,
confidence in the track of the remnant circulation is below average
beyond Day 3 or 4. (This is born out in the latest ensemble track
guidance...a veritable mess beyond that time frame.) Having said
that, impacts from Ian (mainly in the form of rain) are still likely
across our forecast area by the end of the short term, but the
magnitude of those impacts remains very uncertain... due to a
variety of unknowables at this point.
In the interim, gusty winds are forecast to become established
across the area on Thursday...continuing through the end of the
period as the gradient tightens between Ian, a 1030+ mb surface high
settling into the northeast, and resultant inverted ridge sharpening
down the Eastern Seaboard. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range appear
likely, especially during each afternoon. While the guidance
consensus is to slow down the surge of tropical moisture and precip
development across our CWA, likely PoPs nevertheless appear
warranted across the southeast fringe by early Fri evening.
Lingering anomalously low heights and NE low level flow followed by
increasing/thickening cloud cover is expected to yield well-below
normal max temps and slightly below normal mins through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 pm Tuesday: Conditions are expected to be in a gradual
state of deterioration across the forecast area at the start of the
extended, with precip chances ramping up toward categorical by
daybreak Saturday...as tropical moisture will likely be surging from
the southeast. Having said that, T.C. Ian is expected to be
encountering its next difficulty early in the period, as it will
encounter the leading edge of sprawling and fairly strong high
pressure covering much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The
interaction of these features creates the most uncertainty regarding
the track of the cyclone`s remnants over the weekend into early next
week. Interestingly (considering the ridiculous degree of spread in
ensemble guidance), a consensus appears to be emerging among the
global deterministic models to drag the weakening and increasingly
less-tropical remnants into north Georgia by the end of Saturday,
with some hint that a dry slot will surge into the forecast area for
late Sat/Sat night. And in fact, while the remnants remain over the
region for a while before dissipating...or perhaps kicking out to
the east, these solution don`t produce much in the way of heavy
rainfall past Saturday evening.
Thus, Fri night/Saturday are currently looking like the rainiest
period. A number of factors are creating a considerable amount of
uncertainty regarding QPF. First: with the aforementioned surface
ridge in place...cold air damming will quickly become locked in
once precipitation develops...with the resultant stable air mass
cutting into the rainfall rate potential. Second: with tropical rain
bands/ deep convection expected to focus along the upstream coastal
front, some degree of moisture transport interruption into the area
is a good bet, which would result in further hindrance to rainfall
rate potential. Combine that with the lingering intensity and track
uncertainties, and QPF is a big ?. Based upon the current emerging
consensus in the guidance, confidence is increasing that much of the
area will see at least a couple of inches of rain in the Fri night/
Saturday time frame, but how much above/beyond that remains a
mystery for now.
Conditions should steadily dry out through the remainder of the
period, but some degree of moisture (and PoP) lingers into early
next week. Temps should remain below normal throughout.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the 18z TAF fcst period. Skies
should remain mostly clear through the early evening hours, with
upper level cirrus increasing from SE to NW this evening into
Wednesday. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon and will be
mainly NW`ly. Low-end wind gusts are most likely at KAVL. Winds
decrease slightly tonight into daybreak Wednesday remaining NW`ly at
KAVL and turning more N`ly and NNE`ly east of the mtns. Winds
remaining at light speeds overnight into daybreak Wednesday, along
with increasing cirrus, may limit mtn valley fog development. Wind
speeds increase throughout Wednesday morning across the western
Carolinas with NW`ly winds at KAVL and NNE`ly winds east of the
mtns. Low-end gusts look most likely at KAVL again Wednesday
morning. Sfc high pressure will lead to continued dry conditions
through the TAF fcst period.
Outlook: VFR with dry high pressure across the region through
Thursday. Aviation interests will need to closely monitor the
progress of Ian for possible significant impacts Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An dry air mass and mild temperatures will allow relative humidity
values to fall below 25 percent across most of NE GA this afternoon.
All but Rabun County will see a few hours of RH values dropping
below 25 percent. Wind speeds and gusts will be slightly elevated
but sustained winds will generally be below 15 mph with gusts below
20 mph. With low fuel moisture values in these areas, have a
statement for Increased Fire Danger in place through 7pm. There will
be some locations across the NC mountains with elevated winds and
low RH but there is little overlap. A few locations across the NC
and SC Piedmont will have low RH as well. However, winds will be
much lighter there, so not planning to expand the statement.
GSP's take on it.
They seem to think we will not see a whole lot of precip with it. 2-3 inches at most.
As of 210 pm Tuesday: Anomalous upper trough is forecast to move
quickly off the East Coast early in the short term...too fast
(unfortunately for us) to "grab" T.C. Ian and send it into the
western Atlantic. Ian is therefore expected to find itself within a
nebulous flow pattern...wobbling slowly north across the Florida
peninsula at the start of the period. That being the case,
confidence in the track of the remnant circulation is below average
beyond Day 3 or 4. (This is born out in the latest ensemble track
guidance...a veritable mess beyond that time frame.) Having said
that, impacts from Ian (mainly in the form of rain) are still likely
across our forecast area by the end of the short term, but the
magnitude of those impacts remains very uncertain... due to a
variety of unknowables at this point.
In the interim, gusty winds are forecast to become established
across the area on Thursday...continuing through the end of the
period as the gradient tightens between Ian, a 1030+ mb surface high
settling into the northeast, and resultant inverted ridge sharpening
down the Eastern Seaboard. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range appear
likely, especially during each afternoon. While the guidance
consensus is to slow down the surge of tropical moisture and precip
development across our CWA, likely PoPs nevertheless appear
warranted across the southeast fringe by early Fri evening.
Lingering anomalously low heights and NE low level flow followed by
increasing/thickening cloud cover is expected to yield well-below
normal max temps and slightly below normal mins through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 pm Tuesday: Conditions are expected to be in a gradual
state of deterioration across the forecast area at the start of the
extended, with precip chances ramping up toward categorical by
daybreak Saturday...as tropical moisture will likely be surging from
the southeast. Having said that, T.C. Ian is expected to be
encountering its next difficulty early in the period, as it will
encounter the leading edge of sprawling and fairly strong high
pressure covering much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The
interaction of these features creates the most uncertainty regarding
the track of the cyclone`s remnants over the weekend into early next
week. Interestingly (considering the ridiculous degree of spread in
ensemble guidance), a consensus appears to be emerging among the
global deterministic models to drag the weakening and increasingly
less-tropical remnants into north Georgia by the end of Saturday,
with some hint that a dry slot will surge into the forecast area for
late Sat/Sat night. And in fact, while the remnants remain over the
region for a while before dissipating...or perhaps kicking out to
the east, these solution don`t produce much in the way of heavy
rainfall past Saturday evening.
Thus, Fri night/Saturday are currently looking like the rainiest
period. A number of factors are creating a considerable amount of
uncertainty regarding QPF. First: with the aforementioned surface
ridge in place...cold air damming will quickly become locked in
once precipitation develops...with the resultant stable air mass
cutting into the rainfall rate potential. Second: with tropical rain
bands/ deep convection expected to focus along the upstream coastal
front, some degree of moisture transport interruption into the area
is a good bet, which would result in further hindrance to rainfall
rate potential. Combine that with the lingering intensity and track
uncertainties, and QPF is a big ?. Based upon the current emerging
consensus in the guidance, confidence is increasing that much of the
area will see at least a couple of inches of rain in the Fri night/
Saturday time frame, but how much above/beyond that remains a
mystery for now.
Conditions should steadily dry out through the remainder of the
period, but some degree of moisture (and PoP) lingers into early
next week. Temps should remain below normal throughout.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the 18z TAF fcst period. Skies
should remain mostly clear through the early evening hours, with
upper level cirrus increasing from SE to NW this evening into
Wednesday. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon and will be
mainly NW`ly. Low-end wind gusts are most likely at KAVL. Winds
decrease slightly tonight into daybreak Wednesday remaining NW`ly at
KAVL and turning more N`ly and NNE`ly east of the mtns. Winds
remaining at light speeds overnight into daybreak Wednesday, along
with increasing cirrus, may limit mtn valley fog development. Wind
speeds increase throughout Wednesday morning across the western
Carolinas with NW`ly winds at KAVL and NNE`ly winds east of the
mtns. Low-end gusts look most likely at KAVL again Wednesday
morning. Sfc high pressure will lead to continued dry conditions
through the TAF fcst period.
Outlook: VFR with dry high pressure across the region through
Thursday. Aviation interests will need to closely monitor the
progress of Ian for possible significant impacts Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An dry air mass and mild temperatures will allow relative humidity
values to fall below 25 percent across most of NE GA this afternoon.
All but Rabun County will see a few hours of RH values dropping
below 25 percent. Wind speeds and gusts will be slightly elevated
but sustained winds will generally be below 15 mph with gusts below
20 mph. With low fuel moisture values in these areas, have a
statement for Increased Fire Danger in place through 7pm. There will
be some locations across the NC mountains with elevated winds and
low RH but there is little overlap. A few locations across the NC
and SC Piedmont will have low RH as well. However, winds will be
much lighter there, so not planning to expand the statement.
GSP's take on it.
They seem to think we will not see a whole lot of precip with it. 2-3 inches at most.
iGRXY
Member
Need an idea of rainfall from this? Here is the best bet. The blend of all the models. Calling for 2” in these posts is trolling at this point.
Now PDS
Avalanche
Member
Is this already adjusted for the more westerly track currently forecasted?
That’s the latest NWS Blend of Models that the WPC releases. It was issued at 5pm so it takes into account the today’s 12z model runs. The good thing about that blend is that it weights the different models based on their accuracy scores at specific time ranges.
Avalanche
Member
Im just surprised given the western upstate track that central NC would get anything more than an outer band squall.
The thing is that it’s not just the hurricane that’s producing the rainfall. It’s a combo of the hurricane and the high to the north producing a strong moist flow off the Atlantic, a stalled coastal front and strong jet dynamics.
Tornadocane
Member
OMG... I think a Tornado right near my house in Cooper City (Near Davie, FL Location in Warning), and my brother said he could see it from his home. It happened 1 minute after I got the warning, and then the tree started to bend and my house was making noises. Then the winds shifted around from the other direction, and started bending the everything the other way. A blue flashes lit up the sky even though we saw few poles in Florida, and then ambulances started howling nearby. Power came back in 10 minutes after the storm cause I'm on the same grid as the Hospital. Tornado Warnings are still blasting every few minutes.
I can't imagine what the dirty side of a Cat 4 looks like when it hits Collier or Lee County, Florida.
I can't imagine what the dirty side of a Cat 4 looks like when it hits Collier or Lee County, Florida.
JHS
Member
That's true enough and it does seem odd that a tropical system moving that slow only drops 3-4 inches of rain unless convection near the coast does rob us of moisture. Under normal circumstances a tropical system moving at this speed would drop the kind of rain that we got from Jerry in 1995. Some places came close to 20 inches out of that.