Definitely a possibility. IMO it’s a little early for a call as there are a lot of wrinkles to be ironed out. Will be bad for whoever gets the initial landfall if intensity is close to being modeled correctly. I know the Carolinas could sure use the rain but my wishing has never led to being correct in the end.
per my young daughter working/living in Fort Myers water is sold out.
If it doesn’t make landfall until it’s up to the panhandle, that would be a distinct possibility… though I would suspect we would be dealing with a hybrid that still is equivalent strength of a category 1, like Sandy was. The problem with that is that while you may not have as strong a storm, the effects would be spread over a much wider area
I’m not even sure that would be the case. Winds at 850mb quickly wind down as well. Probably some gusty winds inland and some heavy rain to the north and Northwest of the center, but doesn’t look like a huge deal.
True if the GFS is taken verbatim on this. However, it has had issues in the past of resolving the effects of tropical systems being absorbed into troughs. Just something to keep in an eye on as this gets closer
shear
As he said above shear and a boatload of dry/stable air. A major hurricane hit is still very much on the table, but it will depend of landfall location. A hit on central FL is much more environmentally conducive to a major hurricane hit, but should the track veer toward the panhandle, that chance drops substantially.
If it goes by the GFS solution, it would sent into higher wind shear in the northern Gulf of Mexico but if it goes by the Euro solution, it will experience less wind shear before landfall and will potentially still be a intensifying major hurricane upon landfall.
This will still become imo a major hurricane the question is where does it go past Cuba. If east towards a landfall on SW Florida coast I would expect a major hurricane landfall.. if it stays west over the eastern gulf I would expect strengthening but an eventual weakening trend as it starts to feel the impacts of shear from the trough more. Still I believe where ever this goes there will be high impacts in terms of a possible tornado threat and obvious flooding threat for a lot of the SE especially along the track on the storm.
I’ve been wondering since that 18z GFS came out earlier, what kind of effect the sharp contrast in airmasses would have on the tornado potential. You always watch the right front quadrant of a landfalling system and the GFS has dewpoints in the 40s quickly going to dewpoints in the 70s over an extremely short distance. What are your thoughts?
That actually looks like more members to the west.
Atl could be smashed with that track..
I would highly suggest rescheduling. My wife and I have been twice…both times in mid February and it’s absolutely gorgeousCouldn’t convince the other party to go down and ride out a storm
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