• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ian

The NHC forecast uses a cone for a reason. Anywhere in that cone has equal chance for the CENTER of the storm to track. NHC forecast looks fine in projecting all of those possibilities.
 
I'll float this last idea by y'all, what if this continues to struggle to really strengthen? I mean it's about to really blow such a " good" environment??
 
deltadog03 said:
I'll float this last idea by y'all, what if this continues to struggle to really strengthen? I mean it's about to really blow such a " good" environment??
Click to expand...
Mother Nature does what she wants...she's undefeated. :p
 
deltadog03 said:
I'll float this last idea by y'all, what if this continues to struggle to really strengthen? I mean it's about to really blow such a " good" environment??
Click to expand...
I doubt it struggles much longer. Given the environment, a cat 5 before Cuba is more likely than a cat 1 imo.
 
Tornadocane said:
Sure. In theory. I don't think it will all clear out given the strengthening vorticity signatures over the Yucatan and Central Gulf causing subsidence on the SSW to NNW Peripheries of Ian's peripheries. It certainly seems like the Outflow boundary has been disturbed.

It will strengthen, but RI? I feel like everyone has said it would RI way before this point in time. Even the Weather Channel Hurricane Expert has walked back a bit.
Click to expand...
I get the handwringing but everything still looks fine to me, systems still pointed "go". I'll admit it didn't deepen as much as I expected but I think that's a product of how large/broad the core/eye is. RI is most common with smaller/pinhole eyes. This is... not a pinhole.
1664206118352.png

We're still on track for steady strengthening with rapid intensification more likely one the eyewall closes.
 
deltadog03 said:
I'll float this last idea by y'all, what if this continues to struggle to really strengthen? I mean it's about to really blow such a " good" environment??
Click to expand...
Eps 06z is a good look at this.. weaker east .. stronger west is what it seems on that run of ensembles.. also will be key to see where it crosses Cuba.. is it the furthest western tip or more east slicing a good bit of Cuba off.. east vs west idea will probably follow the same trend for its landfall spot in the US.
 
12z ICON..LF Tampa.
Doesn't quite make it to FL east coast before turning.

Looks more like NHC and east side of spaghetti models.


icon_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh57-120.gif
 
ILMRoss said:
I get the handwringing but everything still looks fine to me, systems still pointed "go". I'll admit it didn't deepen as much as I expected but I think that's a product of how large/broad the core/eye is. RI is most common with smaller/pinhole eyes. This is... not a pinhole.
View attachment 122135

We're still on track for steady strengthening with rapid intensification more likely one the eyewall closes.
Click to expand...

I'm just not completely convinced at moment that we see RI. It didn't surprise me when the NHC mentioned that the eye wall wasn't closed on the west side due to vorticity maps and radar. Definitely wasn't a pinhole, and I could see dry air circling around the storm. The ULAC has become displaced, and shear seems to be encroaching on the NW. So does it get to 105 knots before landfall in Cuba? I'm starting to lean towards 'no'.
 
GFS back east lol, and this is why the NHC doesn't move the track with every model run.... they know what they are doing

sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png
 
Yeah any model run that shows less than 3-4" is undervaluing QPF. Moisture from the Hurricane in the gulf, a moisture fetch from the atlantic riding a CAD dome will enhance rates and coverage as well as lift from the Southern and eastern facing slopes scream half a foot for a lot of people. That just seems like the most for sure thing right now as east and west LF tracks still bring the core over the areas inland.
 
Water will pile up substantially in Tampa’s bay if that southern eyewall comes around like some model depictions have suggested. Also, rainfall totals of 40+ inches showing on the maps. Florida better hope that stays offshore.
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah any model run that shows less than 3-4" is undervaluing QPF. Moisture from the Hurricane in the gulf, a moisture fetch from the atlantic riding a CAD dome will enhance rates and coverage as well as lift from the Southern and eastern facing slopes scream half a foot for a lot of people. That just seems like the most for sure thing right now as east and west LF tracks still bring the core over the areas inland.
Click to expand...
Yeah…and it doesn’t seem to matter where the storms comes in…near Tampa or further north at the Big Bend. Also I would be at all suprised to start see a larger shield of rain spread further north out ahead of the storm as we get closer leading to an earlier onset rain for the Carolinas. This would probably be something that the short range models pick up on
 
I think the track now is important for the coastal regions of Florida .. I believe our impacts here in NC is pretty much set in stone. Lots of rain some gusty winds.. slight tornado threat especially along boundary.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
NAM was way west too on the 12Z run compared to the 06Z run.
Click to expand...
Strictly from a numbers perspective its about 60% west and 40% along east. The mean mslp gets skewed since the land interaction raises pressures and the ones far enough west are still in the 960s. Either way it's a delicate track here in that 48-96 hour window where 50-75 miles makes a huge difference
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top