BHS1975
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- tropical
Henry2326
Member
Watch the crawl outside of Tampa Bay.
This is a 48 hour period drilling the coast.
A cat 4 coming to a crawl. Sure it's shredding, but thst energy has to go somewhere.
This is a 48 hour period drilling the coast.
A cat 4 coming to a crawl. Sure it's shredding, but thst energy has to go somewhere.
iGRXY
Member
I’ve got a feeling this thing is going to get uncomfortably close to Tampa yo the point that it’ll be in the eyewall for several hours without an actual LF happening before Ian creeps up the coast and makes a true LF in the big bend. A couple things I think worth noting is while there is shear and dry air that has this thing weakening on approach, as ILM stated I wonder if it’s somewhat being overdone to an existent. We’ve seen for probably at least a the last 5 or 6 years that these hurricanes often have been strengthening on approach for a variety of reasons (biggest thing is those 2 words we aren’t allowed to say changing how traditional weather and forecasting used to behave. Also the forward motion of the storm going to the NE I think could actually get a little venting help from the shear and if this thing gets up to CAT 4 strength which I think is almost a given at this point, it’s going to take a while for dry air to even breakdown the eyewall to get into the core. I also am not sold on the front making it as far south as these things tend to stall right off the coast of the Atlantic and just north of the Gulf which would give it additional time to get north without weakening. Will be interesting to see in the coming days.
Side note, it’s finally nice to see that the GFS is catching a hint with the QPF and moisture fetch. All models paint widespread 4-6” of rain for most of our areas now.
Side note, it’s finally nice to see that the GFS is catching a hint with the QPF and moisture fetch. All models paint widespread 4-6” of rain for most of our areas now.
Yeah that cone is definitely narrowing… I still like a landfall about Cedar Key or just to the south of there. That track from the NHC really is about a worse case scenario for Tampa. A major crawling slowly just to the west is really gonna be piling the water up in the bay even as it weakens
JHS
Member
The models are also starting to show a small severe threat with this too. The CAD erodes a little faster, letting higher dewpoint air come a little farther NW into the upstate
iGRXY
Member
Doubt is erodes. CAD’s are self reliant as moisture falls over the dome is further locks the CAD into place. This is just globals eroding them too fast again that I’m almost certain you won’t see on the short range models once we get in their range. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 40’s on Friday around here
If we know one the about CAD, it’s always going to hold on longer than modeled. I certainly expect that back your way and into the NC foothills could definitely drop back into the upper 40s during the day on Friday… I expect to be in the low 50s here most of the day. There should be a decent severe threat right along the wedge boundary and just to the south and east of wherever it sets up
Taking a look at KGSP, the NBM barely gets the dewpoints to 60 on Saturday... mainly 50s for the entire event duration.
KCAE on the other hand gets up to 64 or so...
Now looking towards @Stormsfury 's way in Charleston, it is around 70
Charlotte barely breaks 60.
KCAE on the other hand gets up to 64 or so...
Now looking towards @Stormsfury 's way in Charleston, it is around 70
Charlotte barely breaks 60.
The HWRF paints the best possible scenario to avoid major damage from Ian. It keeps it well west of the Florida peninsula with a ghost of Ian making landfall west of Apalachicola.
JHS
Member
That boundary I bet sets up somewhere within 10 miles either side of an Abbeville, Union, Rock Hill line. The I-85 corridor will most likely stay in the CAD all the way through though.Taking a look at KGSP, the NBM barely gets the dewpoints to 60 on Saturday... mainly 50s for the entire event duration.
KCAE on the other hand gets up to 64 or so...
Now looking towards @Stormsfury 's way, it is around 70
Always have severe threat with landfalling and post landfall TC now add in that wedge boundary, could see potential serious threat along that
JHS
Member
The Euro at one point has over 400 SBCAPE and a cluster of storms over my area. If it verifies, we may have problems.
It will interesting to see how the WPC lines up watch boxes on Friday because the area with the best chance of tornadoes might be on the wedge boundary, but that could also be outside the right front quadrant of the storm where most tornadoes occur in a tropical system.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’d expect this to keep trending up as well. Gfs still under modeling returns given the setup. It’s a good thing too, it’s crazy dry here
Some way too early rainfall amounts for key areas from this mornings NBM:
CLT - 3.16 in
GSP - 3.6 in
ATL - 2.7 in
CHS - 6.89 in
TLH - 5.06 in
SAV - 5.75 in
HKY - 3.92 in
RDU - 4.07 in
MRH - 8.27 in
JAX - 10.83 in
MOB - 0.07 in
TPA - 10.04 in
CAE - 3.97 in
CLT - 3.16 in
GSP - 3.6 in
ATL - 2.7 in
CHS - 6.89 in
TLH - 5.06 in
SAV - 5.75 in
HKY - 3.92 in
RDU - 4.07 in
MRH - 8.27 in
JAX - 10.83 in
MOB - 0.07 in
TPA - 10.04 in
CAE - 3.97 in
Cary_Snow95
Member
First look at Ian. Quite a different storm from 12 hours ago 
Wouldn't doubt a major by tomorrow morning this time. Maybe even sooner
This is low for the GSP area.
Here's a great website with data on IAN: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL092022
Nerman
Member
I was trying to insert that GOES-16 of the sun rising on IAN but the GIF wouldn't take. Beautiful storm this morning.
The NBM blends a ton of models together and gives higher weighting to the more reliable ones, while less to the non reliable ones. It's just an idea. 4-6 inches seems to be a good idea but track (which we still do not know) will dictate all the #s in the end.
Avalanche
Member
We NEED this!!
blueheronNC
Member
06z EURO shifted west bigtime offshore Tampa. It’s west of the 06z GFS
current steering (for how the storm strength is now) until it gets stronger
I just realized the ICON wasn't exactly an outlier, the Ukie came inland south of Tampa, basically ran up the peninsula, exited briefly off the NE part of Fl and 2nd LF up the coast as very weak system but tons of rain. Curious to see if it shifts back west with it's 12z run. It and the Euro have diverged a little bit.
The system being stronger now should bias the track a little west
Keep in mind it only runs out to 72 hrs, while it is west of it's previous track, it is heading N/NNE and would probably still end up in the big bend area of Fl. Just didn't want anyone to read that west shift as it heading towards Destin or something that far west.
Henry2326
Member
Yep.....there is some indication in the spaghetti models of some movement toward the east coast of FL.I just realized the ICON wasn't exactly an outlier, the Ukie came inland south of Tampa, basically ran up the peninsula, exited briefly off the NE part of Fl and 2nd LF up the coast as very weak system but tons of rain. Curious to see if it shifts back west with it's 12z run. It and the Euro have diverged a little bit.
This 00z ICON model is devastating for Tampa Bay. Front and East quadrant into the bay...... geez
2nd LF in SC.
I don't see it happening just put out there as part of the discussion, I'd be shocked if the Uk didn't move back west with it's track at 12z.
Henry2326
Member
I just put the models out there. If the NHC can't figure out day 3 to 5, then we are all just guessing. LOL
smast16
Member
What system was that last year (Or two ago) that models kept inching west and west, and was progged to be a direct hit on NO. And It did, but it was just a naked swirl of low pressure and nothing more than a breezy day.
Wondering.
Zeta
Henry2326
Member
12z ....
genuinely baffled on how the 12z models will run. shift east? shift west? i don't know. i have absolutely no read. i spent 20 minutes trying to find the synoptic difference on why the icon is doing what it's doing and didn't see it. steering based on vibes. good luck.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
The northeast ended up getting snow from Zeta.