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Tropical Hurricane Ian

metwannabe said:
Yep and even up here, 7 days out a couple hundred miles isn't huge just huge implications for sensible weather. Euro back to solid rain event, some gust but probably big time Tor threat in ENC
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Yeah I mean days 5-7 if the models are within 200 miles at verification that isn't bad.

The euro is actually right over my house at D7. prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma (1) (8).png

It would be an impressive system especially on the east side where you can bust the likely sfc wedge inversion
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and even up here, 7 days out a couple hundred miles isn't huge just huge implications for sensible weather. Euro back to solid rain event, some gust but probably big time Tor threat in ENC
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Yeah that would be a good look at 24 to 48 hours out but that's 168 hours away so it's good eye candy and nothing more
 
Such a big difference at 500mb across the eastern US between the euro and the gfs/cmc camp. Typically I would want to lean euro the verification scores say you should but I'm just not sure it's such a perfect scenario for this area it's hard to believe
 
SD said:
These swings aren't really that wild they just look incredibly dramatic bc of the shape of FL imo
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Agreed. Something else that should be discounted is the possibility of a stall close to the coast or just inland if the trough does pull away faster.
 
SD said:
Such a big difference at 500mb across the eastern US between the euro and the gfs/cmc camp. Typically I would want to lean euro the verification scores say you should but I'm just not sure it's such a perfect scenario for this area it's hard to believe
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I feel like lines are definitely starting to blur for weather in our back yards when it comes to the Euro vs GFS. Maybe on a complete global scale, Euro may still verify better at 500mb, but man.. it's getting hard to just assume it is right vs gfs these days.
 
Shawn said:
I feel like lines are definitely starting to blur for weather in our back yards when it comes to the Euro vs GFS. Maybe on a complete global scale, Euro may still verify better at 500mb, but man.. it's getting hard to just assume it is right vs gfs these days.
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Yeah the euro has really had an over amplification issue the past couple of years in my eyes. How many times in the D5-10 has it had a big eastern ridge/trough only to back down
 
That's another big shift to the west for the 2nd landfall in the Carolinas. Another shift like that and Anywhere from Savannah to Myrtle beach will quickly be in the landfall.
 
Is that 2nd landfall near Myrtle Beach a Cat2? Thought I saw 955mb but the graphic was moving pretty quick.
 
This is coming together North of Forecast. Take a look at the lightening data. The energy is clearly focusing to the N and NW of TD9. The SW convection and vorticity isn't going to survive long enough to pull this storm back down to 13.5-14N. The 18z Initialization is more NE than every GEFS member, and I believe the system is actually at 15N near that big area of lightening. I also think we have a quickly organizing Tropical System at the moment, and I would not be surprised if this is a 65MPH TS in 12 Hours.
20222661446-20222661746-GOES16-GLM-AL092022-EXTENT3-1000x1000.gifter.php?stormid=AL092022

The GFS solution of reformation is definitely off the table now.
 
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Shaggy said:
I would tend to agree but this is a later season trough so it's strength is a bit more believable
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This is a large difference in the trough between the euro and the rest with not much support from the ops but some of the gefs did look like this. I don't think its unbelievable but you are kind of looking at a south displaced sandy or Hazel type scenario here for usmodels-2022092312-f138.500hv.conus.gif
 
I'm gong with EPS. The model has been much closer to reality over the last 6 Hours, and I suspect we'll see more northern forecast points. The 500Mb vorticity is actually getting influenced to the north per latest maps. I can clearly see the system getting stacked on Satellite, because the both the LLC and MLC are converging from two opposite directions.

North Atlantic - 500mb Vorticity - Latest Available - Large Scale

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

I actually hope those eastern solutions are correct, because people are not prepared. I got my supplies like waters and batteries at 8AM. I actually panicked a few people that so me rolling out 12 cases of water. lol. This is going to be a very bad system for the new transplants.

116EB9BB-D787-444D-8331-5671EC16A8CA.thumb.jpeg.1ad11232c6004dbb3a79b0dbf11b9912.jpg
 
Sumterite said:
Is that 2nd landfall near Myrtle Beach a Cat2? Thought I saw 955mb but the graphic was moving pretty quick.
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Looks like it landfalls in the 960s. There's a lot going on though with it going across FL, potentially eating dry air from the west, maybe some jet assistance hard to guess what we would truly be looking at
 
SD said:
Looks like it landfalls in the 960s. There's a lot going on though with it going across FL, potentially eating dry air from the west, maybe some jet assistance hard to guess what we would truly be looking at
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Most if not all NC canes ingest decent amounts of dry air.


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