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Tropical Hurricane Ian

GEFS, if this stays west, bends back SW in direction of Central America, takes the wide turn, shoots the gap and very strong system heading to Gulf coast (weakening upon approach), stays north more crosses Cuba weaker, still formidable, into S. Fl. Might have a better idea within 36 hrs or so

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Said it yesterday, and will say it again....we have seen this far too many times. There is no way the trough is as strong as the models showed yesterday and even this morning. Its going to have a VERY hard time getting any kind of push. With that, our system is going to miss it and be left meandering in the Gulf. IMHO, the western panhandle to MS river better be prepared. Keep watching trends.

Edit: Not to mention that our system is currently trying to organize itself further SW, giving it even more of a chance at missing the trough.
 
Everyone is focused on the trough and I get it but at least on the ensembles the westward shift was more product of a strong camp of storms to the south. These storms missed the trough simply because they were hanging around Cancun instead of landfalling in Cuba. There's still short term kinks to iron out and my prerogative is to figure that out first until I worry about the trough, which I thought didn't change much in the grand scheme of things.
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Doesn't that guy realize that it's forecast to be a major at landfall?

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Going to be interesting to see if the Euro agrees with the cmc and gfs on kicking the trough out and collapsing the steering so this really slows down west of FL and has to wait for the WAR to flex or something to the west to kick it. It's crazy that the cmc and gfs are almost on top of each other even at 192 hours
This could end up as as LA hit, or even more west! These wild run to run swings just mean there are a lot of tiny variables, that can lead to major changes, if the trough misses it, anything in the gulf is possible, IMO
 
Better check Hazel: I had ole timers tell me over in western NC it was very cool.
It was very cool after Hugo. Like a few days later, highs in the 50s and rain. Can’t remember what it was like as it was occurring
 
One thing to remember is that at the current northerly-ish heading and considering the shape of the gulf side of Florida's coastline, what we consider and post as "a slight shift" one way or the other as models progress could mean 100+ miles for landfall.
 
50’s with an approaching hurricane moving inland. That’ll be something. Probably the coldest I’ve ever experienced a tropical storm/hurricane in this neck of the woods if it does verify.
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Irma did that a few years ago, I believe. We lost power and lit a fire in the fireplace for heat and light. Temps in the 50's with a howling northeast wind. That was 9/12/2017.
 
what was the question? sounds pretty dismissive on the surface
After reading the rest of the comments, he goes on to say unless the center is supposed to come over the Cape, then they won’t roll it back in the bay. Also says he’s not from Florida but DC so take that for what it’s worth
 
It was very cool after Hugo. Like a few days later, highs in the 50s and rain. Can’t remember what it was like as it was occurring
Not down here in the Charleston area after Hugo. In the 90s for several days until a cool down a little later. 2 weeks later, there was a small regional severe outbreak. A tornado hit in Goose Creek and wiped out a mobile home that survived Hugo.
 
Not down here in the Charleston area after Hugo. In the 90s for several days until a cool down a little later. 2 weeks later, there was a small regional severe outbreak. A tornado hit in Goose Creek and wiped out a mobile home that survived Hugo.
Yes, my mistake! I was in Gastonia. I remember it being cold and rainy at some point and still being without power, it could of been a week after! ??
 
Euro heading north over Cuba, again early on it is a good bit N/NE of the GFS, never really heads in direction of SW Caribbean
 
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