Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Avalanche]

Yeah, I can't recall an air mass that cold with a hurricane plowing into it....wide right for us makes sense or a trapped/dying storm like the 6z GFS showed.

Did Sandy a few years back do something similar to this?

 

[ncskywarn]

This is really going to make things tricky for NASA and the Artemis launch scheduled for next Tuesday.....

My guess is they're going to have to cancel the attempt on the 27th. Because if it does not make that launch date they're not gonna have time to roll it back to the VAB before this thing hits.

 

[deltadog03]

You got me on ignore? I said that twice. Someone else even posted a map.


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No I don’t. Lol. I agree with that. Sorry didn’t see it

 

[ncskywarn]

Now that we have TD 10. I wonder if that will develop 1st into a tropical storm before this does and this will become Ian and not Hermine.

 

[deltadog03]

11am NHC update now forecasting a major at landfall

View attachment 121857

Honestly spot on IMHO. I would be a major for Cuba landfall.

 

[Arcc]

Now that we have TD 10. I wonder if that will develop 1st into a tropical storm before this does and this will become Ian and not Hermine.

If it does, be afraid. I named storms are bad news.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[JimRussell]

My guess is they're going to have to cancel the attempt on the 27th. Because if it does not make that launch date they're not gonna have time to roll it back to the VAB before this thing hits.

if they roll back, I believe they will miss this launch window as well. After all the mishaps, NASA prob pounding walls right now.

 

[ncskywarn]

if they roll back, I believe they will miss this launch window as well. After all the mishaps, NASA prob pounding walls right now.

Yeah if it misses this window the next launch window opportunity is the 17th to the 31st of October.

 

[SD]

Icon is rough for FL trough leaves it behind waiting for something it move it

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I don't think I'd rely on this safeguard, if some of the intensity models are realized and this is an elite-level hurricane with a large/strong core, it will take a lot of time for dry air to get entrained and cause a difference. I think you could make this argument closer to the Carolinas latitude but Tampa-southward this won't be an issue. If it weakens it will likely be because of shear/ewrc.

I'd agree with Tampa southward. Unless the storm is completely captured by the incoming trough and rockets NE, it'll be a shell of its former self anywhere north of 28N.

 

[iGRXY]

GFS roughly unchanged through 78

 

[alfoman]

12Z GFS thru 78 hours is slightly slower and ever so slightly west of 6Z. The trough over the EC is digging a little deeper than the past few runs as well, which bodes for a sharper turn even with the more west-based placement.

 

[Tornadocane]

Okay. I finally have time to go all-in on this system. In my opinion, the storm is beginning to improve its structure as shear seems to be lessening to the north. I am aware of the area of vigorous Lower Level Spin to the NE of convection, but I believe there is a broad LLC that will start to focus to the W (or N/NNE of strongest convection/500MB vorticity). The HH sees the merging of these two areas based on the flight patten. Upper Level Divergence is improving over this area as well as the concentration of convergence now that Fiona is blasting off to the North. I believe we will start seeing more considerable strengthening in about 12-18 hours.

I think the models will move the storm west as we see the spin underneath the SW convection battle for supremacy, and the location of our eventual LLC starts to concentrate between the two areas of LLC. Once an LLC is established, I think we see Rapid Intensification happen much sooner than models anticipate (30-42 Hours). All the ingredients will be available (Bathtub Water, Amazing Upper Level Environment for exhaust, Good Forward Speed). The area it will traverse will be Lift as areas to its N and S will be suppressed (areas of subsidence). We already see the storm starting to fan out on the later satellite images. I think the models will shift the storm to East as (if) the storm rapidly intensifies. It will feel the effects of another East Coast Trough, which have been routinely getting stuck over Northern Florida for the last few weeks, and has finally allowed us to get a rainy season down in S. Florida this September.

 

[ncskywarn]

Not surprisingly I've also heard the NWS is ordering extra balloon launches for air sampling purposes.

 

[Stevo24]

I mean what are the chances we get a big cold front right now when a hurricane is coming. If there was no hurricane it would be 95 degrees and no cool down in sight.

 

[alfoman]

Trough lifting sooner on the 12z GFS allowing the storm to resume more of a NNW movement rather than making the turn into mid-FL. Looking like a Big Bend hit on this run

 

[Tornadocane]

Not surprisingly I've also heard the NWS is ordering extra balloon launches for air sampling purposes.

I heard that on the Weather Channel. This a very serious threat as opposed to the NHC just using up unused resources because of a relatively quiet season. We are literally 3-4 days before impacts could be felt, and I can honestly tell you that people in South Florida are not ready. Particularly the transplants.

 

[mrdaddyman]

GFS and Canadian with a huge shift West:

 

[SD]

Going to be interesting to see if the Euro agrees with the cmc and gfs on kicking the trough out and collapsing the steering so this really slows down west of FL and has to wait for the WAR to flex or something to the west to kick it. It's crazy that the cmc and gfs are almost on top of each other even at 192 hours