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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Meteorologist1999 said:
You mean western Cuba. Do you guys think that west turn into Carolina’s is possible?
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Definitely possible but trough orientation and strength is very key here .. there are multiple scenarios that get it to hook back towards us and multiple to keep it away .. that stuff won’t be cleared up this far out. My question is how strong would it really be even if it did come back our way. My guess is if it scraped through Florida like models show it will be much weaker and probably have less time to get going to give us a huge wind threat. Flooding potential would be the largest threat for us at this time imo.
 
metwannabe said:
Captain obvious here but dang look at that west shift, you start getting it to cross western Cuba (flatter terrain) or shoot the gap and becomes a much bigger deal intensity wise. Little more spread too now, I mean dang some almost into Central America before it turns N
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Also south FL is not really cane killer terrain and with decent forward speed it may do a good job of holding together on some of those tracks across the everglades etc... which encreases our odds of real impacts if there is a second landfall in NC.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
As has been my thinking the models continue to relocate the initialization of the storm further SW and there for the track long term does the same. You have an exposed LLC that is trying to relocate under the heaviest convection that continues to fire. As always you cant look at models 6-7 days away and not expect track changes, they WILL happen. As for models strength predictions they are UNDERDOING the strength forecast IMO by a long shot. Look at how much little shear is effecting this once it gets up into the NW Caribbean. Bath water, no shear, great ventilation = rapid intensification. This environment easily will facilitate a major hurricane. One much stronger than those euro ensembles are painting (999 mbs in this environment?!?! Not happening) View attachment 121850
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Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does. 1663943054916.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Also south FL is not really cane killer terrain and with decent forward speed it may do a good job of holding together on some of those tracks across the everglades etc... which encreases our odds of real impacts if there is a second landfall in NC.
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Also will be passing over 90 degree water an may even strengthen some over the everglades.


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I think you’ll continue to see some west corrections and I’m going minimum category 4 once it gets into those waters just south and west of Cuba. Highly doubt it’ll lose any strength even if it crosses western Cuba as terrain in minimum and the width of the island is extremely thin. The biggest issue is where the NE turn happens and how sharp will it be. The further west it gets the further north it’s going to likely get into Florida and the closer it’s going to be to the Carolina coast and the trough. There’s multiple scenarios where we could get some serious flooding rains through Georgia and the Carolinas. Florida looks all but ground zero at this point. Now it’s a matter of central Florida or potentially the far northeastern sections of the panhandle.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does. View attachment 121854
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Look at that potential if it shoots the gap and follows the west edge of the cone. That's a worst case scenario there as far as a monster is concerned.
 
The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased
from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification
as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system
is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a
strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once
it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Regarding areas outside of S. Florida, the air mass ahead of the storm would argue strongly for a rapidly weakening storm. So, it seems that the further west the storm tracks in the Gulf, the weaker it will be at landfall.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
 
accu35 said:
I mean, even if there’s a trend west in the furture, it gonna be hard to come up further with that trough. There’s no way it gets into the western Pandhandle while we at 50s at night lol.
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Yeah, I can't recall an air mass that cold with a hurricane plowing into it....wide right for us makes sense or a trapped/dying storm like the 6z GFS showed.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Regarding areas outside of S. Florida, the air mass ahead of the storm would argue strongly for a rapidly weakening storm. So, it seems that the further west the storm tracks in the Gulf, the weaker it will be at landfall.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
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I don't think I'd rely on this safeguard, if some of the intensity models are realized and this is an elite-level hurricane with a large/strong core, it will take a lot of time for dry air to get entrained and cause a difference. I think you could make this argument closer to the Carolinas latitude but Tampa-southward this won't be an issue. If it weakens it will likely be because of shear/ewrc.
 
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