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Tropical Hurricane Ian

deltadog03 said:
Any thoughts? I feel like its around this area.
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IDK. Thoughts are dangerous with this system. lol

I completely agree. Recon took some dropsondes from their high altitude aircraft. They found the lowest pressures in the area that you marked, and there's definitely some higher winds to the N and NE. In fact, I'd say there's vigorous spin and convection all the way up to 15.4, 78 where 54MPH winds were found. The Northern Area is constantly producing electric storms. Hopefully we get this resolved in the next HH Flight, because I really want to go sleep. Going to the Bills/Dolphins Game tomorrow.

EDIT: NE Convection is wrapping around the dominant area on Satellite.
 
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Stevo24 said:
Too bad the wedge never verifies that strong.
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We'd have to get closer and have way more sampling to know what the trough will end up doing as it moves through. The modeling likely shows an intensified wedge because the low is pulling the wedge down entirely, so what would only reach maybe N GA at the most would penetrate deep into AL and further south in GA and maybe SC too.
 
Chris says flooding not looking like a threat here in the upstate. Am I missing something because it looks like a huge threat.
 

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Stevo24 said:
Chris says flooding not looking like a threat here in the upstate. Am I missing something because it looks like a huge threat.
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Just reading his post and he mentions that he thinks this is a fast mover.

Edit: it should be noted that by the end of this week it will have been at least 2 weeks since a lot of these areas have seen significant rain, so the ground should be able to handle it to an extent.
 
So the position is being moved towards the area in Deltadog's image. Shear on the West Side probably from that 200MB trough and 500MB vorticity over Cuba, but I could be wrong. The Dvork method suggest we have a 52MPH storm, which is supported by the upper level 54MPH wind found during Recon.

A. 09L (IAN)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 14.9N

D. 77.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVR W
QUAD SUGGESTING SOME SHEAR. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2035Z 14.7N 76.5W SSMIS


...KONON
 
JHS said:
I would normally agree but we will have a LOT of dry air to overcome.
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Stevo24 said:
Maybe where you are located. My town it always underperforms. Always.
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Except that time in ‘14, when Greenville wasn’t supposed to get any freezing precip , and the wedge over performed and massive damage occurred into Athens Georgia!
The weaker more disorganized storm that’s showing on model runs today, will make for nice rainfall for a lot of the SE!
 
Stevo24 said:
Maybe where you are located. My town it always underperforms. Always.
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Did you used to post as JHS? Asking for a friend.???
 
iGRXY said:
Maybe if we are talking about getting a wedge to work for snow but regular wedges over perform 9/10 times. Seen countless times where we are 5-10 degrees colder than models show from wedges
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Yep and they NEVER erode on time. They have kept us out of many severe weather outbreaks.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If the center is under there .. already above 15N .. this will have big implications downstream and tomorrows runs could have the final adjustments and we can zone in on an actual area
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From what I can tell, the center looks to be about where the red X I put is. There's a clear swirl component on the last few frames around there. It could be a little NW of there as well but it's not above 15N yet unless recon confirms it in a little bit.
1664071008280.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Almost 0 chance this makes it even west of AL with the setup we have no matter what the fine details end up being. Higher chance it cuts the state south of tampa than goes to LA
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Yeah that ridge to the west blocks how far west it can go. There seems to be an alley for this to move through
 
FallsLake said:
18z GFS for 21z (midafternoon) Friday:
View attachment 121999
With that kind of cool wedge, you would expect a quick conversion to extratropical.
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How does this even define CAD though? I'm not an expert, but isn't this just a result of cooler, dryer air being pulled in on the northwest side of a strong low pressure system? You have the same cooled air west of the mountains, and there are no mountains in southern Alabama for any damming.

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"Classic cold air damming is usually initiated by strong high pressure moving eastward toward New England or Eastern Canada following a cold air outbreak. The cold air flows out over the eastern United States as the parent high becomes established over eastern Canada or New England. Ridging will appear on the MSLP chart east of the Appalachians as cold air becomes entrenched and surface pressures rise. In most cases, an area of low pressure exists west of the mountains and weakens as cyclogenesis occurs over the Gulf or Atlantic coastal areas. This first area of low pressure acts to enhance the pressure gradient, which strengthens the dam. The coastal cyclogenesis initiates onshore flow, overrunning of moist air, and increased precipitation. The classic cold air dam is usually the most difficult to scour."
 
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J.C. said:
How does this even define CAD though? I'm not an expert, but isn't this just a result of cooler, dryer air being pulled in on the northwest side of a strong low pressure system? You have the same cooled air west of the mountains, and there are no mountains in southern Alabama for any damming.

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CAD is just cold air falling down the mountains due to the position of high pressure and low pressure. That image you attached is kinda wonky lol, got me confused for a second.
 
I can't believe we're talking about CAD in September. I did love epic CAD events in NE New Jersey, because they were so unreliable given my proximity to 40-45 degree water that'd blow from SE and E. Those poor souls on Long Island missed out on so many 2-3 foot snowstorms. We had one CAD event in NJ that was like a 1,000 year event in which 10" of sleet covered the ground with a quarter inch of freezing rain.

Does this CAD scenario have the effect of drenching areas along the cool, dry boundary?
 
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