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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS went a good jump west
Word of caution, it’s out there on its own.
Snowflowxxl
Member
And the ping-pong GFS continues.
Henry2326
Member
Goodness.....what a change
BHS1975
Member
ICON/UKmet/euro vs GFS
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Quite the fire hose setting up on the east side into NC
BHS1975
Member
That's a ton of CAD overrunning on the GFS.
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Henry2326
Member
Same change on cmc as gfs.....
Cary_Snow95
Member
The cad erodes over NC setting up a major rain event. Interesting trend here. This keeps backing to the west and pulling PWAT values offshore into NC after the CAD breaks down
There have been similar changes with those models as the Gfs .. all westward trends continue as of right now. These I believe have more credit to them since model data has been getting recon data and environment data from extra weather balloons and hurricane hunter missions.
BHS1975
Member
Last edited:
Looks like recon might find the dominant LLC about where I had the circle. Let’s see
severestorm
Member
Glad the coast has a fighting chance to avoid the brunt with the cold front. Might be a great storm to track with reduced impacts to land, hopefully.
iGRXY
Member
Expect QPF to be underdone as well
Agreed… I don’t think we get a really good idea on total QPF until we get to short range models. This definitely has the ingredients to be a big time widespread event
Itryatgolf
Member
The reality is most likely Ian will miss the trough, hence the westward shift in guidance so far
JHS
Member
Hopefully the Euro and Canadian models are right about precip. The GFS dry slots many of us and I'm afraid it may be right with the dry air wrapping around. It's a shame that the 70 degree dewpoints are long gone with this system possibly coming in. If this does miss, it'll be another 2+ weeks before we get another shot at any real rain.
JHS
Member
I would normally agree but we will have a LOT of dry air to overcome.