Honestly with that convective plume and the some banding, it’s probably near TD status.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm expecting an advisory and a cone tomorrow
I could see a Charley type track as well.
Taylor C
Member
Where this system starts getting its act together most the northwest turn would start. The CMC/EURO/ICON/ACC, tropical models, and large set of GFS ensembles look like a good bet this goes through the Gulf of Batabano as it makes landfall in western Cuba next Monday afternoon/evening and emerges off the coast of southwest Florida with landfall there on Tuesday.
GFS has trended to the Euro. 
Idk why we even watch the gfs. It always caves.
Gonna be near Tampa. The bad news is it’s gonna stay in a favorable environment much longer with a explosive northern outflow channel. Any shear it does encounter will be neutralized due to a more NE motion.
The 00z GFS floods central FL
It just stalls out on the eastern Florida coast.
Taylor C
Member
NAM
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Meanwhile Tallahassee gets no rain.The 00z GFS stalls and puts the entire I-4 corridor under water.
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And gives the NE it’s first snowacane of the season!
Shaggy
Member
If the gfs would clear off the east coast of Florida by a 100 or 200 miles this could be a stronger storm on 2nd landfall
How is it even possible to get pushed back to SC? The trough would have to speed by it and the ridge build in and shunt it west for a bit?? On that GFS run