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Tropical Hurricane Ian

The cad erodes over NC setting up a major rain event. Interesting trend here. This keeps backing to the west and pulling PWAT values offshore into NC after the CAD breaks down
 
BHS1975 said:
ICON/UKmet/euro vs GFS


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There have been similar changes with those models as the Gfs .. all westward trends continue as of right now. These I believe have more credit to them since model data has been getting recon data and environment data from extra weather balloons and hurricane hunter missions.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
There have been similar changes with those models as the Gfs .. all westward trends continue as of right now. These I believe have more credit to them since model data has been getting recon data and environment data from extra weather balloons and hurricane hunter missions.
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Yeah I expect the euro to go far west too.


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Glad the coast has a fighting chance to avoid the brunt with the cold front. Might be a great storm to track with reduced impacts to land, hopefully.

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iGRXY said:
Expect QPF to be underdone as well
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Agreed… I don’t think we get a really good idea on total QPF until we get to short range models. This definitely has the ingredients to be a big time widespread event
 
Chazwin said:
Agreed… I don’t think we get a really good idea on total QPF until we get to short range models. This definitely has the ingredients to be a big time widespread event
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Hopefully the Euro and Canadian models are right about precip. The GFS dry slots many of us and I'm afraid it may be right with the dry air wrapping around. It's a shame that the 70 degree dewpoints are long gone with this system possibly coming in. If this does miss, it'll be another 2+ weeks before we get another shot at any real rain.
 
Recon finding the center maybe south of 14 north. Close to where gfs initialize
 
12z Euro initialized the system about where the 12z GFS did. Question is if the Euro will yank it SW as much as the GFS did in future frames
 
JHS said:
Hopefully the Euro and Canadian models are right about precip. The GFS dry slots many of us and I'm afraid it may be right with the dry air wrapping around. It's a shame that the 70 degree dewpoints are long gone with this system possibly coming in. If this does miss, it'll be another 2+ weeks before we get another shot at any real rain.
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The GFS is having its normal convective feedback issues which is normal this far out. The fact is it’s showing a firehouse of moisture coming in over the top of a CAD… we all know that’s a recipe for heavy rainfall
 
ILMRoss said:
The chart conveys an overinflated degree of confidence with this storm in both track and intensity. There’s nothing here beneficial to the public that the NHC cone doesn’t bring. Nothing about this feels like a good faith effort to inform the public and instead just feels like clickbait. Charts like this give mets a bad name in my opinion and damage credibility. You’re technically not wrong but just because it could happen doesn’t mean it should be published
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I do think this chart is hyperbole and I see your point. The real problem with charts like this is that many people who know little or nothing about the weather take forecasts like this as gospel rather than looking at other data and sources to make decisions. The NWS should be the first source that the public should go to for details on possible impacts from an approaching tropical system of any type.
 
HWRF and HMON shifting west, at same position, but not as far west as GFS.
HMON shredded on approach.
But....
HWRF at 955.....hope that doesn't verify.

hwrf_ref_09L_42.png

hmon_ref_09L_42.png
 
Trend of the day has been further west with Ian. We have seen the track of tropical systems change just 24 hours from landfall, so not surprising to see this.
 
Henry2326 said:
HWRF and HMON shifting west, at same position, but not as far west as GFS.
HMON shredded on approach.
But....
HWRF at 955.....hope that doesn't verify.

View attachment 121960

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Will be some pretty impressive inland flooding and storm surge in the eastern panhandle if the HWRF OR HMON are correct. Honestly this would be devastating for this area as Michael ravaged this area a few years ago. michael_track_finalbesttrack.png
 
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