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Tropical Hurricane Ian

It's not clean kick ots with the eastern most members and those turn north the earliest.

AL98_2022092212_ECENS.png
 
The difference in landfall intensity from the 0z to 12z Euro is stark. In the upper panhandle last night you had a rapidly weakening ~Cat 2 and on the 12z in south Florida you have a rapidly strengthening Upper Cat 3/possible Cat4.

Landfall location (if it happens) is huge.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Why are models showing a bend back west into Carolinas? Are the feeling the effects of trough?
Click to expand...
Yes. If you live in the Carolinas that short trip across FL back into the Atlantic then quick hook back into the coast is a concern if the trough is deeper into the upper south or across the Ohio Valley or it cuts off
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Why are models showing a bend back west into Carolinas? Are the feeling the effects of trough?
Click to expand...
Yep, @SD answered it of course. And if you look at this image of the 12z Euro you can see interaction with that diving trough, even starting to tug it some but it's too late and basically pulls it back up into Atlantic Canada, but it's not far off from pulling it sooner. All depends on timing of both, TC and the trough, and how deep/location of that trough

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_52.png
 
1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that an area
of low pressure has formed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, though
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized. The environment is forecast to become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and
be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend where conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands,
northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts
are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening.
Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Definitely a swirl, naked, but a swirl moving due north around 66 deg. However, I'm betting this dies of and another forms. Looks more like an eddie caught in a greater elongated circulation. Any centers that do form, aren't going to survive long with that shear. Fiona is just ripping it to shreds.

1663879210515.png
 
SD said:
Yes. If you live in the Carolinas that short trip across FL back into the Atlantic then quick hook back into the coast is a concern if the trough is deeper into the upper south or across the Ohio Valley or it cuts off
Click to expand...

This may or may not be good for comparison. Everyone is so use to just seeing storms , once they hook NE head OTS. There's a few other tracks besides this one that shows you how the troughs coming and going/timing do some out of the norm stuff.

Memorable-October-Hurricanes-solisC.jpg
 
NCSNOW said:
This may or may not be good for comparison. Everyone is so use to just seeing storms , once they hook NE head OTS. There's a few other tracks besides this one that shows you how the troughs coming and going/timing do some out of the norm stuff.

Memorable-October-Hurricanes-solisC.jpg
Click to expand...
I think practically every one of these scenarios has been modeled in the past couple of days. Lol
 
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