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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Def a bit EAST in the GOM vs the 18z and 12z runs. Very strong coming into the GOM and slowly weakening over N GOM
Still GFS vs EURO camp.
 
Def a bit EAST in the GOM vs the 18z and 12z runs. Very strong coming into the GOM and slowly weakening over N GOM
Still GFS vs EURO camp.
Considering the fact that the GFS is thinking that a cold front can steer a tropical cyclone, I'm going with the Euro camp for now.
 
Looks like OP Euro may have a substantial shift. Still goes into FL, but grinds through and much slower instead of going immediately off the coast from what I see.

bad maps, though. high def soon
 
This is coming together North of Forecast. Take a look at the lightening data. The energy is clearly focusing to the N and NW of TD9. The SW convection and vorticity isn't going to survive long enough to pull this storm back down to 13.5-14N. The 18z Initialization is more NE than every GEFS member, and I believe the system is actually at 15N near that big area of lightening. I also think we have a quickly organizing Tropical System at the moment, and I would not be surprised if this is a 65MPH TS in 12 Hours.
View attachment 121882ter.php?stormid=AL092022

The GFS solution of reformation is definitely off the table now.
Well that was completely wrong
 
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Ian is still being affected by some north-northeasterly, however
short-wave infrared imagery suggests that the center is located
beneath the eastern edge of the colder convective cloud tops.
Deep convection over the western portion of the circulation has
increased overnight but there is still little banding evident in
conventional satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS have changed little this cycle, but given that the center
is more involved with the deep convection, the initial intensity
has been increased to 40 kt, which is between the objective
estimates and a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 3.0 or 45 kt.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian this morning, and should provide additional data on Ian's structure
and intensity.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Ian has turned westward
(270/12 kt) overnight to the south of a narrow ridge centered
near Hispaniola. By early Sunday, Ian is expected to reach the
western portion of the ridge, and the storm should turn
west-northwestward, and then northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, Ian is forecast to
turn north-northwestward and northward around the western portion
of the ridge. This will bring Ian near or over Western Cuba and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Late in the period, the
guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida.

As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with
this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track
spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in
the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean along the western side.

The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are Reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.

The shear that has been plaguing Ian is forecast to continue to
decrease over the next day or two while the cyclone moves over the
warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
should allow for strengthening, with steady to rapid
intensification (RI) quite possible once an inner core becomes
established. Although the updated NHC forecast is just shy of
forecasting RI (30 kt or greater increase over 24 h) during any 24-h
period over the next few days, it calls a 45-kt increase in wind
speed between 24 and 72 hours, and Ian is likely to be near major
hurricane intensity when it approaches western Cuba. Since Ian is
not expected to remain over Cuba long, little weakening is expected
due to that land interaction, and the forecast again shows Ian as a
major hurricane over the eastern Gulf when it is approaching the
west coast of Florida.
 
Yet another westward jump by the 06Z GFS. It weakens from here as it slowly pushes NNE to Apalachicola.

gfs_mslp_wind_seus_19.png
 
Def a little west trend in models. Looks like they are slowing a little bit slower Ian and that would help to miss that trof and landfall further north over FL and should be weaker. Plenty of time left for sure.
Shocking that the models would overdo an eastern trough 5 days out...not.

A sobering reminder for when the epic 5-day snowstorms this winter wind up in the Ohio Valley lol.
 
Shocking that the models would overdo an eastern trough 5 days out...not.

A sobering reminder for when the epic 5-day snowstorms this winter wind up in the Ohio Valley lol.
When I made the comment the other day if the NW trend was only applicable in the winter it was tongue in cheek but also knew in my mind, I’ve seen this movie waaaaay too many times.
 
When I made the comment the other day if the NW trend was only applicable in the winter it was tongue in cheek but also knew in my mind, I’ve seen this movie waaaaay too many times.
And just like winter, we're left with a CAD rain along with a miserable NE wind to chill ya to the bone.
 
Overnight, shear has been replaced with outflow in every quadrant. As has been modeled, once a core consolidates, it's clear it's bombs away.
 
Man waking up to see that a sheared TC is finally surrounded by convection is like running into an old high school friend at the bar who was a loser then but got it together and has a nice job and a girlfriend now. Proud of you ian ?
 
I love the EURO and EPS just as much as the next guy and 9/10 times you’re smart to go with that but when those 2 were clearly the furthest eastern outliers especially compared to the hurricane models/spaghetti graphs, I think it was safe to say that the GFS may have been on to something with the more western track. Especially when it was showing deep slow moving troughs that let’s face it, rarely materializes here. Still plenty of time to see changes and I could see a slight tick to the east but it appears the big bend to down around Tampa look prime for a landfall then a quick turn to the N and NW
 
I love the EURO and EPS just as much as the next guy and 9/10 times you’re smart to go with that but when those 2 were clearly the furthest eastern outliers especially compared to the hurricane models/spaghetti graphs, I think it was safe to say that the GFS may have been on to something with the more western track. Especially when it was showing deep slow moving troughs that let’s face it, rarely materializes here. Still plenty of time to see changes and I could see a slight tick to the east but it appears the big bend to down around Tampa look prime for a landfall then a quick turn to the N and NW
I agree.....I only say be careful, because the hurricane models run off the GFS conditions *I am pretty sure* someone correct me if I am wrong please.
 
The UK met has nailed tracks in the past and looks like it may nail this one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The only thing I’m confused about is the idea that with this western shift the storm should be weaker. Why? Just days ago this was forecasted to be a major hurricane anywhere in the gulf? Why now all the sudden it has shear to deal with?
I haven't studied the naps, but my guess is shear.
 
The only thing I’m confused about is the idea that with this western shift the storm should be weaker. Why? Just days ago this was forecasted to be a major hurricane anywhere in the gulf? Why now all the sudden it has shear to deal with?
There is a LOT of very cool dry and stable air to be ingested if it landfalls on the northern gulf coast.

gfs_Td2m_seus_22.png
 
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian this morning, and should provide additional data on Ian's structure
and intensity.
 
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