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Tropical Hurricane Ian

DadOfJax said:
Somewhere along the FL panhandle.
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Definitely a possibility. IMO it’s a little early for a call as there are a lot of wrinkles to be ironed out. Will be bad for whoever gets the initial landfall if intensity is close to being modeled correctly. I know the Carolinas could sure use the rain but my wishing has never led to being correct in the end.
 
The HWRF depicts two LLCs with the SW circulation becoming dominant while the LLC we've been watching in visible sat slides to the NW and dissipates.

hwrf_mslp_wind_09L_5.png
 
Something crazy is it may not even be a hurricane at landfall on the 18z GFS, but a tropical storm. Would definitely look like a hybrid on satellite and radar.
 
Tornadocane said:
I'm gong with EPS. The model has been much closer to reality over the last 6 Hours, and I suspect we'll see more northern forecast points. The 500Mb vorticity is actually getting influenced to the north per latest maps. I can clearly see the system getting stacked on Satellite, because the both the LLC and MLC are converging from two opposite directions.

I actually hope those eastern solutions are correct, because people are not prepared. I got my supplies like waters and batteries at 8AM. I actually panicked a few people that so me rolling out 12 cases of water. lol. This is going to be a very bad system for the new transplants.

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per my young daughter working/living in Fort Myers water is sold out.
 
Arcc said:
Something crazy is it may not even be a hurricane at landfall on the 18z GFS, but a tropical storm. Would definitely look like a hybrid on satellite and radar.
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If it doesn’t make landfall until it’s up to the panhandle, that would be a distinct possibility… though I would suspect we would be dealing with a hybrid that still is equivalent strength of a category 1, like Sandy was. The problem with that is that while you may not have as strong a storm, the effects would be spread over a much wider area
 
Chazwin said:
If it doesn’t make landfall until it’s up to the panhandle, that would be a distinct possibility… though I would suspect we would be dealing with a hybrid that still is equivalent strength of a category 1, like Sandy was. The problem with that is that while you may not have as strong a storm, the effects would be spread over a much wider area
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I’m not even sure that would be the case. Winds at 850mb quickly wind down as well. Probably some gusty winds inland and some heavy rain to the north and Northwest of the center, but doesn’t look like a huge deal.

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Arcc said:
I’m not even sure that would be the case. Winds at 850mb quickly wind down as well. Probably some gusty winds inland and some heavy rain to the north and Northwest of the center, but doesn’t look like a huge deal.

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True if the GFS is taken verbatim on this. However, it has had issues in the past of resolving the effects of tropical systems being absorbed into troughs. Just something to keep in an eye on as this gets closer
 
Ok why are we talking about a weak hurricane when just earlier today we were talking about major?
 
Stevo24 said:
Ok why are we talking about a weak hurricane when just earlier today we were talking about major?
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As he said above shear and a boatload of dry/stable air. A major hurricane hit is still very much on the table, but it will depend of landfall location. A hit on central FL is much more environmentally conducive to a major hurricane hit, but should the track veer toward the panhandle, that chance drops substantially.
 
Stevo24 said:
Ok why are we talking about a weak hurricane when just earlier today we were talking about major?
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If it goes by the GFS solution, it would sent into higher wind shear in the northern Gulf of Mexico but if it goes by the Euro solution, it will experience less wind shear before landfall and will potentially still be a intensifying major hurricane upon landfall.
 
Stevo24 said:
Ok why are we talking about a weak hurricane when just earlier today we were talking about major?
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This will still become imo a major hurricane the question is where does it go past Cuba. If east towards a landfall on SW Florida coast I would expect a major hurricane landfall.. if it stays west over the eastern gulf I would expect strengthening but an eventual weakening trend as it starts to feel the impacts of shear from the trough more. Still I believe where ever this goes there will be high impacts in terms of a possible tornado threat and obvious flooding threat for a lot of the SE especially along the track on the storm.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This will still become imo a major hurricane the question is where does it go past Cuba. If east towards a landfall on SW Florida coast I would expect a major hurricane landfall.. if it stays west over the eastern gulf I would expect strengthening but an eventual weakening trend as it starts to feel the impacts of shear from the trough more. Still I believe where ever this goes there will be high impacts in terms of a possible tornado threat and obvious flooding threat for a lot of the SE especially along the track on the storm.
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I’ve been wondering since that 18z GFS came out earlier, what kind of effect the sharp contrast in airmasses would have on the tornado potential. You always watch the right front quadrant of a landfalling system and the GFS has dewpoints in the 40s quickly going to dewpoints in the 70s over an extremely short distance. What are your thoughts?
 
So fun fact, if this storm makes landfall as a hurricane, it would be the third straight year that a I named made landfall in the US as a hurricane.
 
metfascination said:
Couldn’t convince the other party to go down and ride out a storm


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I would highly suggest rescheduling. My wife and I have been twice…both times in mid February and it’s absolutely gorgeous
 
00z tropical intensity models show as follows:

7am CST Sunday= tropical storm
7pm CST Sunday= tropical storm nearing hurricane strength
7am CST Monday= category 1
7pm CST Monday= category 2
7am CST Tuesday= category 3
7pm CST Tuesday= category 3
7am CST Wednesday= category 3
7pm CST Wednesday= weakening
 
Found this to be am interesting tidbit.

The track models
agree on this general scenario, and the guidance envelope is
flanked by the major global models, with the ECMWF taking a route
over South Florida and the GFS farther west, remaining over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The new NHC forecast lies between
these two scenarios and is not much different from the previous
forecast. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both show a similar amount
of spread as the deterministic guidance, but both ensemble means
are close to the multi-model consensus aids, which helps to give
more credence to the position of the official forecast.
 
A big 24 hours for this system. Still have a bit of competing vort maxes. EURO says something different vs GFS. both ENS suites are different as well. Tried to show the EURO with it.
euro 1.pngeuro 2.pngeuro 3.pngeuro 4.pngeuro 5.pngeuro 6.png
 
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