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Tropical Hurricane Ian

KyloG said:
Euro strengthens the ts quicker and thus further north early which is all it takes to get a whiff, outside of FL.

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Exactly. To me this thing still has at least another 36-48 hours before it can truly even get off the ground much less become a sub 1000mb low pressure and while I do think RI is going to happen the best bet is going to be in the waters west of Cuba and into the Gulf itself. The Euro really has this thing going bonkers within the next 72 hours which just doesn't look all that plausible based on current satellite and the fact that it's fighting of the outflow from Fiona
 
iGRXY said:
Crazy because previous runs have had temps in the low 50s in my neck of the woods while the hurricane is rolling through which is insane to think about.
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Its the October Cane: Flavor: Hazel did the same thing
 
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iGRXY said:
Exactly. To me this thing still has at least another 36-48 hours before it can truly even get off the ground much less become a sub 1000mb low pressure and while I do think RI is going to happen the best bet is going to be in the waters west of Cuba and into the Gulf itself. The Euro really has this thing going bonkers within the next 72 hours which just doesn't look all that plausible based on current satellite and the fact that it's fighting of the outflow from Fiona
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I agree. All of the models that wanting to bring it up further east are also the ones that want to develop it much quicker in the short term. Just simply from the eye test and the current environment, it just seems unlikely that we have much more than a TD or minimum TS in the next 48-72 hours. Still a lot of dry air to contend with to inhibit development.
 
Fewer Yucatan solutions on the 12z EPS. Overall trend is clearly northeast
 
Chazwin said:
I agree. All of the models that wanting to bring it up further east are also the ones that want to develop it much quicker in the short term. Just simply from the eye test and the current environment, it just seems unlikely that we have much more than a TD or minimum TS in the next 48-72 hours. Still a lot of dry air to contend with to inhibit development.
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If you look at the latest run of the Hurricane spaghetti plots I posted above, the EURO is easily the east outlier while the GFS is the furthest west outlier. Even the western tracks of the spaghetti models have it starting it's NE turn pretty soon after reentering the Gulf.
 
Stays weak, shoots the gap, misses the trough, creates its on path to the northern Gulf.....seen this story too many times.

Edit: At least everyone on this board better hope so...if not, this will almost guarantee another week of dry conditions
 
DadOfJax said:
Stays weak, shoots the gap, misses the trough, creates its on path to the northern Gulf.....seen this story too many times.

Edit: At least everyone on this board better hope so...if not, this will almost guarantee another week of dry conditions
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2 Weeks of dry weather if this misses us. Euro is bone dry for the entire board outside of FLA through day 10 and the GFS has very little precip either, if you take off the stuff from the possible tropical system.
 
Looks to be about 3 days before we can tell which model is completely off its rocker on where it goes. I'm not exactly buying anything yet nor would I be quick to just go euro for the sake of going euro. Once this thing takes off I'd definitely pool some chips into the hurricane models since they perform best with existing systems.
 
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