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Tropical Hurricane Ian

KyloG said:
It's lifting out and GFS becomes trapped
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Yeah, it's just meandering north there and what's worse is that it keeps it over water longer because there's nothing to pick it up yet. It just misses the trough so all it has is that slow northward component. Hopefully that doesn't end up happening because the storm surge with that is going to be terrible
 
Pensicola-bound this time it seems
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As that ASCAT pass showed earlier and you can clearly see it on vis sat now, there is a definitive vigorous spin over water off the South American coast... once the outflow from Fiona starts to subside might see this develop fairly quick. @Shawn 12Z guesstimate seems very plausible. Tomorrow at this time we may actually be tracking something or tomorrow evening
 
metwannabe said:
As that ASCAT pass showed earlier and you can clearly see it on vis sat now, there is a definitive vigorous spin over water off the South American coast... once the outflow from Fiona starts to subside might see this develop fairly quick. @Shawn 12Z guesstimate seems very plausible. Tomorrow at this time we may actually be tracking something or tomorrow evening
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Hey, who you callin' an ASCAT? ?
 
Imagine the strength the canadian would've shown had it bent back over water another 100 miles east. Looks like landfall directly over Edisto. Beach. If I remember correctly, a land falling cane down around Edisto or just further north is a worst case scenario for storm surge and the peninsula.
 
While not ideal for the central gulf coast, the fact that the trough completely whiffs on picking up the storm, this is going to allow for much needed rain inland from MS through NC. Would not want to be anywhere near NOLA to the western panhandle when it comes through.
 
BullCityWx said:
Imagine the strength the canadian would've shown had it bent back over water another 100 miles east. Looks like landfall directly over Edisto. Beach. If I remember correctly, a land falling cane down around Edisto or just further north is a worst case scenario for storm surge and the peninsula.
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Yep, Edisto is kind of a one way in and out deal too. I believe it was Matthew that wreaked havoc along that area which they had to rebuild the beaches over. Took a couple houses out into the ocean too.
 
Something else to bring up. I know we like to get caught up in the exact pressure on global models but when a global model computes for a strengthening system like this, they usually tend to underestimate the strength. This is why we use hurricane models to bring the scale size down to the hurricane or storm itself and therefor you get a much better read on pressure fluctuations along the path. Plus we know from a general sense that hurricane strength is very hard to predict vs path. I would focus more on where the storm is headed in global models and then look to mesoscale hurricane models to pin point potentials in strength more accurately.
 
metwannabe said:
As that ASCAT pass showed earlier and you can clearly see it on vis sat now, there is a definitive vigorous spin over water off the South American coast... once the outflow from Fiona starts to subside might see this develop fairly quick. @Shawn 12Z guesstimate seems very plausible. Tomorrow at this time we may actually be tracking something or tomorrow evening
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One thing I do know is to never underestimate the west Caribbean. If the east side is the graveyard, the west is the nursery.
 
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