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Tropical Hurricane Ian

metwannabe

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There ain’t no way that this is suddenly going out to see after all this. I can’t believe it.
It's not exactly out to sea, S. Fl still very much in play on the eps. Also, still longs way to go but with a trough that deep, ots is certainly a possibility
 

Stevo24

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It's not exactly out to sea, S. Fl still very much in play on the eps. Also, still longs way to go but with a trough that deep, ots is certainly a possibility
Was the trough not that deep in previous models? Any chance they are overdoing the trough?
 

NickyBGuarantee

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No it wasn't and yes it's possible.
Key will be along with strength of storm, strength of the trough and also orientation. This all can affect the track in huge ways that can still change a lot in 6+ days. The trend is east but I still think a correction west could still be in order over the next couple days.
 

KyloG

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Key will be along with strength of storm, strength of the trough and also orientation. This all can affect the track in huge ways that can still change a lot in 6+ days. The trend is east but I still think a correction west could still be in order over the next couple days.
It wouldn’t take much to get it tracking into the gulf again
 

Arcc

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The trend today on the EPS is for a much deeper/south trough which really helps keep the ts away from the coast…except for FL. That is one cold air mass.

View attachment 121804View attachment 121803
This is Charley all over again.

Edit: looking at 500mb there are similarities, although the trough next week is definitely farther East.

1663901466086.gif

Charley also came from almost scraping SA.

1663901759653.gif
 
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ILMRoss

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Really firing deep convection tonight, if this starts to develop quickly, more northern early and increases those far eastern tracks.
I think this is a rare case where a deeper storm will drift more southerly to start actually, since Fiona is still imparting a ton of northerlies (what’s shearing the storm) on 98L. The more it deepens the more it will feel these northerlies.
 

metwannabe

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I think this is a rare case where a deeper storm will drift more southerly to start actually, since Fiona is still imparting a ton of northerlies (what’s shearing the storm) on 98L. The more it deepens the more it will feel these northerlies.
Very good point indeed
 

Taylor C

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Where this system starts getting its act together most the northwest turn would start. The CMC/EURO/ICON/ACC, tropical models, and large set of GFS ensembles look like a good bet this goes through the Gulf of Batabano as it makes landfall in western Cuba next Monday afternoon/evening and emerges off the coast of southwest Florida with landfall there on Tuesday.
 
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