• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ian

Agree with Shane. Euro will be interesting for sure. Stay the path or adjust. Usually lean euro, but not always. If it stays the same I will probably lean that way too. This isn’t a trof trying to come down in July or August. It’s almost October
 
Yeah the QPF output was likely off on those runs. CAD dome and lift along the mountains could really start cranking up the totals. Widespread 3-6" with locally higher type event.
 
Do we know if recon data was put into the 12z GFS and CMC? If so this could explain such drastic shifts in guidance.
 
Now I would start to argue that IF (and that’s a big if) these west trends continue and the storm has a chance to ride the Eastern gulf and hit somewhere along the Florida panhandle you then have to start thinking that shear could become an issue for it along with some phasing potential with the dropping trough. This would weaken the storm as it heads to a landfall at that location. Regardless the impacts would be strongly felt regardless but that scenario is on the table as well.
 
The Naked COC looks like it's already past 15N after heading NW, but is now trekking WNW towards the NE part of the Convection. There's clearly another weaker spin to it's SW. I think TD9 eventually consolidates around 15.7N, 71.8. This system is much further NE than models are indicating.
 
deltadog03 said:
Agree with Shane. Euro will be interesting for sure. Stay the path or adjust. Usually lean euro, but not always. If it stays the same I will probably lean that way too. This isn’t a trof trying to come down in July or August. It’s almost October
Click to expand...

IDK... I would wait for another Recon Flight before leaning any direction. I don't know exactly where the COC is located, but I suspect it will establish itself further north. In fact, the latest Thunderstorm bursts are occurring further north where the naked swirl is entering.
 
The latest GFS run has the center of TD 9 going over the Appalachians on it's inland track northward after making landfall. That would bring disastrous flooding to mountain communities in North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia in highly flood prone areas.
 
GEFS, if this stays west, bends back SW in direction of Central America, takes the wide turn, shoots the gap and very strong system heading to Gulf coast (weakening upon approach), stays north more crosses Cuba weaker, still formidable, into S. Fl. Might have a better idea within 36 hrs or so

AL09_2022092312_GEFS_large.png
 
Said it yesterday, and will say it again....we have seen this far too many times. There is no way the trough is as strong as the models showed yesterday and even this morning. Its going to have a VERY hard time getting any kind of push. With that, our system is going to miss it and be left meandering in the Gulf. IMHO, the western panhandle to MS river better be prepared. Keep watching trends.

Edit: Not to mention that our system is currently trying to organize itself further SW, giving it even more of a chance at missing the trough.
 
Everyone is focused on the trough and I get it but at least on the ensembles the westward shift was more product of a strong camp of storms to the south. These storms missed the trough simply because they were hanging around Cancun instead of landfalling in Cuba. There's still short term kinks to iron out and my prerogative is to figure that out first until I worry about the trough, which I thought didn't change much in the grand scheme of things.
gfs-ens_z850_vort_watl_fh78_trend.gif
 
Doesn't that guy realize that it's forecast to be a major at landfall?

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Going to be interesting to see if the Euro agrees with the cmc and gfs on kicking the trough out and collapsing the steering so this really slows down west of FL and has to wait for the WAR to flex or something to the west to kick it. It's crazy that the cmc and gfs are almost on top of each other even at 192 hours
Click to expand...
This could end up as as LA hit, or even more west! These wild run to run swings just mean there are a lot of tiny variables, that can lead to major changes, if the trough misses it, anything in the gulf is possible, IMO
 
NCSNOW said:
Better check Hazel: I had ole timers tell me over in western NC it was very cool.
Click to expand...
It was very cool after Hugo. Like a few days later, highs in the 50s and rain. Can’t remember what it was like as it was occurring
 
One thing to remember is that at the current northerly-ish heading and considering the shape of the gulf side of Florida's coastline, what we consider and post as "a slight shift" one way or the other as models progress could mean 100+ miles for landfall.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
50’s with an approaching hurricane moving inland. That’ll be something. Probably the coldest I’ve ever experienced a tropical storm/hurricane in this neck of the woods if it does verify.
View attachment 121868
View attachment 121869
Click to expand...
Irma did that a few years ago, I believe. We lost power and lit a fire in the fireplace for heat and light. Temps in the 50's with a howling northeast wind. That was 9/12/2017.
 
Euro little west of it's 0z run, close to where it was heading with it's 06z still east of the GFS
 
JimRussell said:
what was the question? sounds pretty dismissive on the surface
Click to expand...
After reading the rest of the comments, he goes on to say unless the center is supposed to come over the Cape, then they won’t roll it back in the bay. Also says he’s not from Florida but DC so take that for what it’s worth
 
Tarheel1 said:
It was very cool after Hugo. Like a few days later, highs in the 50s and rain. Can’t remember what it was like as it was occurring
Click to expand...
Not down here in the Charleston area after Hugo. In the 90s for several days until a cool down a little later. 2 weeks later, there was a small regional severe outbreak. A tornado hit in Goose Creek and wiped out a mobile home that survived Hugo.
 
Stormsfury said:
Not down here in the Charleston area after Hugo. In the 90s for several days until a cool down a little later. 2 weeks later, there was a small regional severe outbreak. A tornado hit in Goose Creek and wiped out a mobile home that survived Hugo.
Click to expand...
Yes, my mistake! I was in Gastonia. I remember it being cold and rainy at some point and still being without power, it could of been a week after! ??
 
Euro heading north over Cuba, again early on it is a good bit N/NE of the GFS, never really heads in direction of SW Caribbean
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top