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Tropical Hurricane Ian

smast16 said:
My best quess of where the wave pocket is, but it's really hard to tell. This is not very defined at the moment and still getting blasted with northerly shear. Fiona needs to get on before this has a change to lift north more over water and organize.
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I think this is accurate, little west of your arrows now, but vis loop sure would indicate this is where there is some slight turning.... but yeah shear is brutal. Still seems as if land interaction is helping or may help with the spin up
 
smast16 said:
My best quess of where the wave pocket is, but it's really hard to tell. This is not very defined at the moment and still getting blasted with northerly shear. Fiona needs to get on before this has a change to lift north more over water and organize.
View attachment 121734
Click to expand...
Hmmm I spy with my little eye 1663859151769.png
 
It seems like we will start to see more organization of the system by 12z tomorrow morning, which (if it happens at all) will give us a lot more details even versus today's data.

From my understanding the weaker a storm, the more it kind of "meanders" around slowly and needs more influence to steer around and on the other hand, the stronger the system, the easier it is influenced in it's steering.

If the above is true, I'd assume the stronger solutions would be quicker and on the Eastern side of guidance.

Edit: 12z GFS is coming in with a faster system versus previous run and it may even miss the Yucatan on future frames. :confused:
 
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