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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Arcc said:
One thing I do know is to never underestimate the west Caribbean. If the east side is the graveyard, the west is the nursery.
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This is a nice little analogy. While not always the case, I think if we have a well defined low pressure moving into this region over the next week the modeled environment is very supportive of a period of rapid intensification if not just modest intensification. Divergence aloft is amazing in the wake of Fiona’s shear leaving an area that could well ventilate this systems outflow. On top of waters untouched from cyclones this year that are quite warm. Recipe for an explosion
 
Shawn said:
Yep, Edisto is kind of a one way in and out deal too. I believe it was Matthew that wreaked havoc along that area which they had to rebuild the beaches over. Took a couple houses out into the ocean too.
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I spent spring break at Edisto. I loved that place, very quiet and secluded. Perfect.
 
The good news is conditions along the northern gulf still look pretty hostile as the hurricane approaches which would take a decent chunk out of some the bite. Surge would probably still be a big issue if we get a few RIC before hand.
 
Ollie Williams said:
On the bright side, pressure isn't in the 920s like the runs from Yesterday.
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Hate sounding provocative but strength/pressure is the probably the thing I'm most sure about, ocean heat content and upper air pattern scream RI and this becoming an elite hurricane. tracking this thing once it gets into the NW Caribbean is going to be a trip
 
So the Canadian, Euro, and Icon heading to the southern tip of Florida. The GFS is literally in left field with the UK splitting the difference. Going to be a fun model battle coming up folks.
 
ILMRoss said:
Hate sounding provocative but strength/pressure is the probably the thing I'm most sure about, ocean heat content and upper air pattern scream RI and this becoming an elite hurricane. tracking this thing once it gets into the NW Caribbean is going to be a trip
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I agree with this as well. Eastern GOM and this could ignite quickly all the way to the coast
 
Crazy because previous runs have had temps in the low 50s in my neck of the woods while the hurricane is rolling through which is insane to think about.
 
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