Shaggy
Member
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
It’s odd seeing the mean actually have that left hook back inland into the Carolinas. Also, there appears to be a few more going up west of Peninsula
iGRXY
Member
Looked like a bit further west into Cuba this run from my untrained eye.
BHS1975
Member
Different angle of approach but some similarities
Taylor C
Member
Crazy how things are looking so much like Charlie. NHC current landfall locations in Cuba and Florida look good. May see this be a major as it landfalls in Cuba especially if it happens to travel longer over the Gulf of Batabono.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Hermine has formed in the Eastern Atlantic so TD9 will be Ian
Probably a good bit less strength wise. I’m thinking solid Cat 3(125mph) is a good bet at this point.
I doubt this verifies.That's practically a bullseye for me I live between the bottom of the two 9's on on the 992 MB's and the top of the L.
View attachment 121892
Henry2326
Member
iGRXY
Member
Look very similar to the GFS/CMC camp. A tick to the west with a quick turn to the north after landfall in Florida.
BHS1975
Member
Really starting to stack now.
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Shaggy
Member
MHX bringing up potential impacts of varying degrees.
Tuesday through Friday...High pressure continues to build in
from the west Tuesday, with mainly dry conditions and temps
generally near normal. The, the forecast becomes much more
uncertain mid to late week, as the front remains offshore while
what is expected to become a tropical cyclone potentially
interacts with it. This could bring increasing rainfall chances
late week, depending on the track of the low and orientation of
the front, with many solutions, including significant impacts
from tropical low pressure still on the table. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center
for the latest on Tropical Depression 9.
Tuesday through Friday...High pressure continues to build in
from the west Tuesday, with mainly dry conditions and temps
generally near normal. The, the forecast becomes much more
uncertain mid to late week, as the front remains offshore while
what is expected to become a tropical cyclone potentially
interacts with it. This could bring increasing rainfall chances
late week, depending on the track of the low and orientation of
the front, with many solutions, including significant impacts
from tropical low pressure still on the table. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center
for the latest on Tropical Depression 9.
I live in Emerald Isle and am flying to Orlando Sunday thru Thurs and back to RDU. Imma get it no matter what lol.
GFS a tad slower at hr84 but substantially stronger w 944mb entering the gulf just west of Cuba
metfascination
Member
Cancelled my first ever trip to Grand Cayman on Tuesday in anticipation of this - was set to fly out tomorrow. Looks like it’s going to get rowdy
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Shaggy
Member
Why;would you cancel? Trip of a lifetime
Shaggy
Member
Gfs with an almost +30 mb change on approach to the big bend
So, Apalachicola is the new Boston?
BHS1975
Member
SimeonNC
Member
That is legit insane lol, below freezing 850s during a tropical system.So, Apalachicola is the new Boston?
Didn't the mountains get snow out of Sandy? Imagine if that happened again.
Nevermind: Read the map wrong
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Those are surface dews!
Levi just posted a YT video that I thought was very informative. If links aren’t allowed let me know and delete!
Links are allowed, it's the over posting of Twitter that gets on nerves here. Levi's stuff is always gold anyway.
I’m not sure…but they are converging
DadOfJax
Member
Euro definitely trending back west, GFS still shooting the gap. I think they both continue the trend west over the next few runs. You are starting to see the westward extent of ensembles really move!
Levi's video is great. Basically, the trough situation is important, but first, we need to figure out where the center of this thing is going to actually be as it leaves the shear it's experiencing right now. We still have a little while, probably 18+ hours to figure that key out.
What are your thoughts for Landfall?
The shear must be starting to relax. The center has been tucked under the deep storms for a hot minute now.
Shaggy
Member
But at the same time a cluster of gefs members breaks off and supports the eps so there's still plenty of model mayhem to sort through
Attachments
The EPS is still “weighted” east by a good amount.
Yeah, after watching the video posted above you can see it relaxing once aligned longitudinal with Jamaica
DadOfJax
Member
Somewhere along the FL panhandle.
Henry2326
Member
5 pm NHC.....not much changed.
Forecast a cane at 2 am Monday.....middle of the cone is Cayman Islands at the "H". GFS intensity is 965 and HWRF is 976 as it passes through.
I lived there for a year and experienced both a cat1 and cat2. It's at sea level.....I've never seen so much water stack up in my life.
I would leave too.
Forecast a cane at 2 am Monday.....middle of the cone is Cayman Islands at the "H". GFS intensity is 965 and HWRF is 976 as it passes through.
I lived there for a year and experienced both a cat1 and cat2. It's at sea level.....I've never seen so much water stack up in my life.
I would leave too.
As much as we need to watch the trof over the east, the next 48 hrs is super critical to see what areas of energy take over and consolidate. Looks a little north as of now, but supposed to move westerly overnight.