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Tropical Hurricane Ian

This is a large difference in the trough between the euro and the rest with not much support from the ops but some of the gefs did look like this. I don't think its unbelievable but you are kind of looking at a south displaced sandy or Hazel type scenario here for usView attachment 121884
The next couple of days with the increased balloon launches should help nail it down.
 
Crazy how things are looking so much like Charlie. NHC current landfall locations in Cuba and Florida look good. May see this be a major as it landfalls in Cuba especially if it happens to travel longer over the Gulf of Batabono.
 
MHX bringing up potential impacts of varying degrees.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure continues to build in
from the west Tuesday, with mainly dry conditions and temps
generally near normal. The, the forecast becomes much more
uncertain mid to late week, as the front remains offshore while
what is expected to become a tropical cyclone potentially
interacts with it. This could bring increasing rainfall chances
late week, depending on the track of the low and orientation of
the front, with many solutions, including significant impacts
from tropical low pressure still on the table. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center
for the latest on Tropical Depression 9.
 
I live in Emerald Isle and am flying to Orlando Sunday thru Thurs and back to RDU. Imma get it no matter what lol.
 
GFS a tad slower at hr84 but substantially stronger w 944mb entering the gulf just west of Cuba
 
Euro v/s GFS day 5....who you got.

Euro is probably more right but usually it's a blend of sorts.

eurogfs.gif
 
Levi's video is great. Basically, the trough situation is important, but first, we need to figure out where the center of this thing is going to actually be as it leaves the shear it's experiencing right now. We still have a little while, probably 18+ hours to figure that key out.
 
Euro definitely trending back west, GFS still shooting the gap. I think they both continue the trend west over the next few runs. You are starting to see the westward extent of ensembles really move!
What are your thoughts for Landfall?
 
Euro definitely trending back west, GFS still shooting the gap. I think they both continue the trend west over the next few runs. You are starting to see the westward extent of ensembles really move!
But at the same time a cluster of gefs members breaks off and supports the eps so there's still plenty of model mayhem to sort through
 

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5 pm NHC.....not much changed.
Forecast a cane at 2 am Monday.....middle of the cone is Cayman Islands at the "H". GFS intensity is 965 and HWRF is 976 as it passes through.
I lived there for a year and experienced both a cat1 and cat2. It's at sea level.....I've never seen so much water stack up in my life.
I would leave too.
AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1).png
 
As much as we need to watch the trof over the east, the next 48 hrs is super critical to see what areas of energy take over and consolidate. Looks a little north as of now, but supposed to move westerly overnight.
 
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