Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Snowfan]

Wait, now it's taking a hard right into Pensacola...

That’s a weird track.

 

[Avalanche]

The last few years we have seen canes strengthen quickly when they get into the Gulf, too.

This!! Its been like gasoline for a while!!

 

[weatherfide]

The general idea is that somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico there will be a tropical storm around the first of October. It will likely take the very common parabolic path to the right as it moves out of the Caribbean Sea. How soon can we pin down the path to a meaningful strike zone? Probably another 7 days. If I was on the gulf coast, I'd go ahead and prepare now, especially with supply chain issues. Get your plywood and book your hotel inland.

 

[deltadog03]

No doubt legit chance at a cat 5 if this look plays out.

View attachment 121712

Agreed

 

[severestorm]

The flooding from this is going to be catastrophic if the GFS plays out.

 

[Snowfan]

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in
organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the
central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands tonight, and northern Venezuela, northeastern
Colombia, and the ABC island chain during the next couple of days.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying
the system, and data from this mission will be assimilated into
tonight's forecast models.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

This should clear up the model differences somewhat.

 

[Shaggy]

Looks like most of the ens members are east of the Yucatan so the op appears to he the western outlier

 

[Zander98al]

Latest GFS run has landfall in the same approximate area as hurricane Michael a few years ago. That'd be a doozy to still recovering areas, although giving credit to the GFS 200+ hours out on landfall area is hardly recommended at this point.

 

[accu35]

definitely a S&W shift on the 18z Euro compared to the 12z

 

[jeremyt]

Can’t wait for a storm to actually form and see the responses to each individual model run!?

 

[deltadog03]

My guess.....

 

[lizajane]

Whaat! Is this a pop up?

 

[Taylor C]

A strengthening and northwest turn all taking place from now through this time tomorrow. Interesting short term things to watch. Long term seems like things are consolidating on western Cuba taking a hit.

 

[Snowfan]

Now the GFS has it stalling in the western Gulf of Mexico this run.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS now has it making landfall in Louisiana.

 

[accu35]

GFS now has it making landfall in Louisiana.

?

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS now has it making landfall in Louisiana.

Katrina-esque, ont that GFS run

 

[Brent]

GFS ensembles are still all over the place

 

[Metwannabe]

Lol CMC after having the most west track is now the most east, south FL, off EC and very little impact for SE. Euro consistent around Tampa area. Thing still a mess right now with no discernable vort.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yeah I’m going to have to put more eggs in the euro model basket. Stayed the most consistent, initially has a stronger system in the Caribbean which helps that more right turn track to put it over Cuba and then up the East coast in some fashion. With the CMC most East and the Gfs most west it just makes sense to split the difference with the euro right down the middle.. also it would be realllyyyy helpful for models to get an actual area of low pressure to initialize to help out so we need that piece first for much greater accuracy. let’s see how todays 12z goes