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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Brent
Member
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable,
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today.
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable,
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today.
ICON, GFS, CMC, all close to Euro now but none ots as it either rides up spine of Fl and EC or gets just off coast and bends back west for 2nd LF. Back to a SE soaker for now
Still sheared system but appears more easterly shear and you can see some of the deep convection expanding north. This is very close to being a TD or TS
Shaggy
Member
Worst case for us would be it coming off Florida and keeping a due north heading and not crashing right back on shore. Long shot but it's what it would take to be a wind producer. Rain and tornados is another story. Plenty of time for things to change.
Winder when they are start running more Gulfstream missions.
Shaggy
Member
Euro is close to worse case scenario for the eastern seaboard
Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
2:00 am
1. Central Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable,
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today. The system is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northwestern
Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia through
Friday. Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Central Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable,
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today. The system is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central and western Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northwestern
Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia through
Friday. Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
iGRXY
Member
You can see the trough slowing down and getting deeper (hints why it looks like even without the cane we are going to be quite chilly especially for this time of year). This is what is veering it so sharp to the northeast. The thing is, the deeper and angling of the trough the more it’ll pull the storm back to the NW once in the Atlantic making the coast of SC and NC prime for a 2nd landfall and for it to drift further inland. The tough will absorb it as it’s exiting out and ridging builds over top. That makes potential flooding for wherever a 2nd landfall potentially is even a bigger issue as the you’re going to get more moisture output on the northern side from the incoming trough and pulling the hurricane in a elongated position that the models aren’t going to pick up and with ridging building overtop, this thing would almost certainly start slowing down once inland.
The globals are all showing this right now but it is all dependent on the the depth and positioning of the trough. CMC is the western track of this happening, GFS is right in the middle, and EURO is the eastern track. As the Mets in here said the EURO maybe having this thing a bit too far to the north and east initially because it’s making the storm stronger and deeper earlier which throws everything off down stream for our neck of the woods. Fiona is going to keep this thing under wraps for at least another 48 hours from northerly shear which will tug the center further south. Biggest thing to watch is where those hurricane spaghetti plots are going as the NHC really basis their track on them and right now they’re favoring a bit more westerly track vs the EURO but overall the same general idea. This would make a 2nd landfall likely around the low country of SC Potentially.
But remember we are roughly 8 days away from this thing really getting near a landfall and a center truly hasn’t formed yet so it’s all guessing at this time. And as a side note, this isn’t winter and we can get troughs that deep in the fall and it’s actually a little easier to get models honed in on them vs winter based on overall pattern and upper dynamics where there’s a ton of moving parts compared to the end of summer and fall type patterns.
The globals are all showing this right now but it is all dependent on the the depth and positioning of the trough. CMC is the western track of this happening, GFS is right in the middle, and EURO is the eastern track. As the Mets in here said the EURO maybe having this thing a bit too far to the north and east initially because it’s making the storm stronger and deeper earlier which throws everything off down stream for our neck of the woods. Fiona is going to keep this thing under wraps for at least another 48 hours from northerly shear which will tug the center further south. Biggest thing to watch is where those hurricane spaghetti plots are going as the NHC really basis their track on them and right now they’re favoring a bit more westerly track vs the EURO but overall the same general idea. This would make a 2nd landfall likely around the low country of SC Potentially.
But remember we are roughly 8 days away from this thing really getting near a landfall and a center truly hasn’t formed yet so it’s all guessing at this time. And as a side note, this isn’t winter and we can get troughs that deep in the fall and it’s actually a little easier to get models honed in on them vs winter based on overall pattern and upper dynamics where there’s a ton of moving parts compared to the end of summer and fall type patterns.
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iGRXY
Member
NAM will be useless like it always is for hurricanes until the 11th hour. You’re going to see the NAM be the furthest northernly and easterly track Because the NAM has a real issue with making hurricanes worst case scenarios and be on the lookout for sub 900mb NAM runs as that’s its absolute favorite thing to do. The stronger this thing is earlier, the more north and east it’s going to go and the NAM is going to do what the NAM does and paint the worst hurricane imaginable. Seen it time and time again
BHS1975
Member
The 12k NAM is pretty good for track and strength less than 48hrs out.
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Here we go, TD 9
Lot more members inland up the EC, SE soaker?
BHS1975
Member
That would put it over some of the warmest water on the planet.
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iGRXY
Member
It’s average. The NAM is way too strong until 24-36 hours max
Henry2326
Member
Cone covers both GFS and Euro landfall positions.
iGRXY
Member
Was just going to say, the EURO actually came back further west once in the Atlantic vs 12Z so a 2nd landfall somewhere from Savannah to kill devil hills looks really possible right now.
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet ( below) GFS and Canadian 0Z all demolish the bay area of Tampa Bay. Get the right side of the eye, head on up into the bay, worst case scenario. Euro Op was LF south of there, Charley like.
I'm watching this from selfish standpoint for my Backyard. CAnadian and GFS give me good rains. Euro keeps me dry with its track up EC. 6z GFS not gonna get it done, so on to the 12z. Should be a 950 mb storm on 1st landfall. If it stayed west of Florida up into big bend area for 1st landfall, would no doubt sub 930mb LF.
UKMET
GFS
I'm watching this from selfish standpoint for my Backyard. CAnadian and GFS give me good rains. Euro keeps me dry with its track up EC. 6z GFS not gonna get it done, so on to the 12z. Should be a 950 mb storm on 1st landfall. If it stayed west of Florida up into big bend area for 1st landfall, would no doubt sub 930mb LF.
UKMET
GFS
JHS
Member
6z GFS says it stays offshore with not 1 drop of fain for ANY of us unless you live within 20 miles of the coast. Fla gets slammed.
NCSNOW
Member
Brent
Member
110 mph peak on the first advisory ? this thing is gonna bomb out
I can only think of only a couple times I've seen that...
I can only think of only a couple times I've seen that...
Notice how in the near term, the members with quicker development (in teal) stick to a nearly due west track, probably feeling lingering Fiona outflow.
Brent
Member
?
lexxnchloe
Member
WOW, it slows down and falls apart after FLA.
lexxnchloe
Member
It will be interesting to see which model is right. Euro 953mb over Hatteras or the GFS with nothing at all.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Such a wide cone af day 2, still can't say anything different except its not going to Louisiana or west
BHS1975
Member
LLC looks like it's moving due north this morning. Will be interesting to see if it's an eddy in a larger gyre and gives up the ghost through the day to a new LLC more co located to the deep convection or if it runs away from the big convective mass to its SW
Couple of thoughts this morning...
- I was dismissive of the worthwhileness of model watching yesterday, but I wasn't expecting the short term model envelop for the track to become so tight. I think they're a good comparison tool to verify things at this point. So yeah I'm looking at models now.
- Biggest near term Q to me is how the LLC behaves, nascent visible loops this morning should an elongated circulation with a general axis paralleling the deepest convection. Recon is currently screwing around out there:
I've noticed that most ensembles had the LLC crossing 14 degrees of latitude of this point, I'm curious to know if that's just an artifact of the elongated circulation or whether that's a bona-fide south error. I'm hoping that recon will take a few passes to flesh this out. I also want to note that the 6z HWRF mapped this circulation pattern out really well. I think if there's any model that will nail the LLC's behavior, it's the HWRF.
So yeah this morning I'm definitely on "will the LLC reform to the SW" alert. If that happens you can bake in some more intensification in the short term as well as some model errors to the south. Also, fun fact about the HWRF- it projects 9L to be in LLC hell for a solid 48 hours, something to pay attention to.
I'm staying away from any long term proclamations, in general I think this storm will continue to tug south of the model envelop which would translate to more western solutions verifying downstream, but that really depends on how it behaves today.
- I was dismissive of the worthwhileness of model watching yesterday, but I wasn't expecting the short term model envelop for the track to become so tight. I think they're a good comparison tool to verify things at this point. So yeah I'm looking at models now.
- Biggest near term Q to me is how the LLC behaves, nascent visible loops this morning should an elongated circulation with a general axis paralleling the deepest convection. Recon is currently screwing around out there:
I've noticed that most ensembles had the LLC crossing 14 degrees of latitude of this point, I'm curious to know if that's just an artifact of the elongated circulation or whether that's a bona-fide south error. I'm hoping that recon will take a few passes to flesh this out. I also want to note that the 6z HWRF mapped this circulation pattern out really well. I think if there's any model that will nail the LLC's behavior, it's the HWRF.
So yeah this morning I'm definitely on "will the LLC reform to the SW" alert. If that happens you can bake in some more intensification in the short term as well as some model errors to the south. Also, fun fact about the HWRF- it projects 9L to be in LLC hell for a solid 48 hours, something to pay attention to.
I'm staying away from any long term proclamations, in general I think this storm will continue to tug south of the model envelop which would translate to more western solutions verifying downstream, but that really depends on how it behaves today.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Regarding the HWRF, it also went a bit further west as did the HMON from 6Z. While the HMON puts the low under the envelope faster, the HWRF keeps it exposed until early saturday where it reforms SW as mentioned. The globals seem to act like its mostly surrounded already or will be very soon, which might not be the case. If there's a lot of struggling/SW reformation, we're going to see a westward shift in the modeling some.Couple of thoughts this morning...
- I was dismissive of the worthwhileness of model watching yesterday, but I wasn't expecting the short term model envelop for the track to become so tight. I think they're a good comparison tool to verify things at this point. So yeah I'm looking at models now.
- Biggest near term Q to me is how the LLC behaves, nascent visible loops this morning should an elongated circulation with a general axis paralleling the deepest convection. Recon is currently screwing around out there:
I've noticed that most ensembles had the LLC crossing 14 degrees of latitude of this point, I'm curious to know if that's just an artifact of the elongated circulation or whether that's a bona-fide south error. I'm hoping that recon will take a few passes to flesh this out. I also want to note that the 6z HWRF mapped this circulation pattern out really well. I think if there's any model that will nail the LLC's behavior, it's the HWRF.
So yeah this morning I'm definitely on "will the LLC reform to the SW" alert. If that happens you can bake in some more intensification in the short term as well as some model errors to the south. Also, fun fact about the HWRF- it projects 9L to be in LLC hell for a solid 48 hours, something to pay attention to.
I'm staying away from any long term proclamations, in general I think this storm will continue to tug south of the model envelop which would translate to more western solutions verifying downstream, but that really depends on how it behaves today.
One of the things I'm watching, which I think is a main player, is the incoming trough. The modeling has it deeper and slower, which is accounting for the more northerly and eastern solutions that we're seeing now. Often in the winter, we see these troughs appear deeper out in time than they actually turn out to be. Usually, we're watching intently, looking for a phase or worrying about squash city.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see if we go back to a shallower trough scenario over the next couple of days. We certainly haven't seen much in the way of deep troughing lately. That has not been the trend. But the seasons are changing, so I guess we'll see
Anyway, it will be interesting to see if we go back to a shallower trough scenario over the next couple of days. We certainly haven't seen much in the way of deep troughing lately. That has not been the trend. But the seasons are changing, so I guess we'll see
The issue is how the two models handle the storm getting absorbed by the trough and what the result of it is. This is something that the Euro has done really well with in the past… it picked up on what would happen with Sandy 10 days out 2012 and ended up being right. If the Euro is onto something here about how deep and sharp that trough is, then it will likely be correct on the strength
As has been my thinking the models continue to relocate the initialization of the storm further SW and there for the track long term does the same. You have an exposed LLC that is trying to relocate under the heaviest convection that continues to fire. As always you cant look at models 6-7 days away and not expect track changes, they WILL happen. As for models strength predictions they are UNDERDOING the strength forecast IMO by a long shot. Look at how much little shear is effecting this once it gets up into the NW Caribbean. Bath water, no shear, great ventilation = rapid intensification. This environment easily will facilitate a major hurricane. One much stronger than those euro ensembles are painting (999 mbs in this environment?!?! Not happening)
Captain obvious here but dang look at that west shift, you start getting it to cross western Cuba (flatter terrain) or shoot the gap and becomes a much bigger deal intensity wise. Little more spread too now, I mean dang some almost into Central America before it turns N
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Yep...could be really bad for FL
vsublazer
Member
Does anyone know how recon is doing this morning? Trying to get ready to fly out for my daughter’s fall break this afternoon. We are going to West Palm Beach area. Glad we already got a rental. Prayers this thing doesn’t go beast mode.
You mean western Cuba. Do you guys think that west turn into Carolina’s is possible?