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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Likely going to be between the GFS and EURO which makes somewhere between apalachicola and Tampa the most likely landfall location as of today
 
Just catching up on the model runs today and right now I think some things are becoming evident. First is to give the slower developing solutions some attention simply because the outflow from Fiona leaving dry air behind could hinder development for the next 48 hrs… slower development could allow it go further west like the GFS is showing. Second there definitely looks to be a limit to how far west this goes as even ensemble members that go into Yucatán still have turn sharp towards the north and then northeast. I still think the overall H5 screams for the eastern Gulf coast, most likely the Panhandle down to Tampa for a landfall and then up through the eastern seaboard.
 
Wonder why the Euro showing a bend back west after landfall? Whenever I see these happen it reminds me of other storms that done that before landfall.
 
Capture more or less with the ULL/trough over the Midwest.
Thanks!! I seen this before where the bend starts happening sooner before landfall If you notice CMC done that on todays 12z run. Had it going in the eastern gulf then bends west into La/Ms gulf coast. Something to watch as eps and gefs is hinting at
 
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