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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Stevo24 said:
There ain’t no way that this is suddenly going out to see after all this. I can’t believe it.
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It's not exactly out to sea, S. Fl still very much in play on the eps. Also, still longs way to go but with a trough that deep, ots is certainly a possibility
 
metwannabe said:
It's not exactly out to sea, S. Fl still very much in play on the eps. Also, still longs way to go but with a trough that deep, ots is certainly a possibility
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Was the trough not that deep in previous models? Any chance they are overdoing the trough?
 
metwannabe said:
No it wasn't and yes it's possible.
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Key will be along with strength of storm, strength of the trough and also orientation. This all can affect the track in huge ways that can still change a lot in 6+ days. The trend is east but I still think a correction west could still be in order over the next couple days.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Key will be along with strength of storm, strength of the trough and also orientation. This all can affect the track in huge ways that can still change a lot in 6+ days. The trend is east but I still think a correction west could still be in order over the next couple days.
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It wouldn’t take much to get it tracking into the gulf again
 
KyloG said:
The trend today on the EPS is for a much deeper/south trough which really helps keep the ts away from the coast…except for FL. That is one cold air mass.

View attachment 121804View attachment 121803
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This is Charley all over again.

Edit: looking at 500mb there are similarities, although the trough next week is definitely farther East.

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Charley also came from almost scraping SA.

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DadOfJax said:
Absolutely no chance in hell that cold of an airmass and that deep of a trough happens…classic timeframe for globals to lose their minds, only to come back to previous solutions.
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That is the EPS mean at just beyond day 5. It probably isn’t wrong by much.
 
metwannabe said:
Really firing deep convection tonight, if this starts to develop quickly, more northern early and increases those far eastern tracks.
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I think this is a rare case where a deeper storm will drift more southerly to start actually, since Fiona is still imparting a ton of northerlies (what’s shearing the storm) on 98L. The more it deepens the more it will feel these northerlies.
 
ILMRoss said:
I think this is a rare case where a deeper storm will drift more southerly to start actually, since Fiona is still imparting a ton of northerlies (what’s shearing the storm) on 98L. The more it deepens the more it will feel these northerlies.
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Very good point indeed
 
Where this system starts getting its act together most the northwest turn would start. The CMC/EURO/ICON/ACC, tropical models, and large set of GFS ensembles look like a good bet this goes through the Gulf of Batabano as it makes landfall in western Cuba next Monday afternoon/evening and emerges off the coast of southwest Florida with landfall there on Tuesday.
 
The 00z GFS stalls and puts the entire I-4 corridor under water.

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FWIW the 00z CMC shows a stall over Florida as well. A more south to north orientation though.

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How is it even possible to get pushed back to SC? The trough would have to speed by it and the ridge build in and shunt it west for a bit?? On that GFS run
 
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