Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Skippy The Brat]

I'd think in between the GFS and the Euro.

Bend in the panhandle landfall.... that is my guess.

 

[NoSnowATL]

View attachment 121704

E more W….

 

[Arcc]

euro nearly 20mb stronger this run at 180

Euro probably gonna keep trending stronger with that look aloft if it is right. Hello Charley 2.0.

 

[iGRXY]

Likely going to be between the GFS and EURO which makes somewhere between apalachicola and Tampa the most likely landfall location as of today

 

[deltadog03]

well......yall see the 12z HWRF? I think firing warning shots..... heading like a NNW toward the western tip of Cuba at end of run...likely a major by looking at pressure and winds. Also, very moist all around the system.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

well......yall see the 12z HWRF? I think firing warning shots..... heading like a NNW toward the western tip of Cuba at end of run...likely a major by looking at pressure and winds. Also, very moist all around the system.

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Is this more euro or Gfs like?

 

[Chazwin]

Just catching up on the model runs today and right now I think some things are becoming evident. First is to give the slower developing solutions some attention simply because the outflow from Fiona leaving dry air behind could hinder development for the next 48 hrs… slower development could allow it go further west like the GFS is showing. Second there definitely looks to be a limit to how far west this goes as even ensemble members that go into Yucatán still have turn sharp towards the north and then northeast. I still think the overall H5 screams for the eastern Gulf coast, most likely the Panhandle down to Tampa for a landfall and then up through the eastern seaboard.

 

[Arcc]

Is this more euro or Gfs like?

About to make that sharp turn toward FL based on 500mb and system strength.

 

[deltadog03]

About to make that sharp turn toward FL based on 500mb and system strength.

I agree, this would split the 2, but favor EURO

 

[accu35]

Wonder why the Euro showing a bend back west after landfall? Whenever I see these happen it reminds me of other storms that done that before landfall.

 

[Arcc]

Wonder why the Euro showing a bend back west after landfall? Whenever I see these happen it reminds me of other storms that done that before landfall.

Capture more or less with the ULL/trough over the Midwest.

 

[Arcc]

well......yall see the 12z HWRF? I think firing warning shots..... heading like a NNW toward the western tip of Cuba at end of run...likely a major by looking at pressure and winds. Also, very moist all around the system.

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No doubt legit chance at a cat 5 if this look plays out.

 

[accu35]

Capture more or less with the ULL/trough over the Midwest.

Thanks!! I seen this before where the bend starts happening sooner before landfall If you notice CMC done that on todays 12z run. Had it going in the eastern gulf then bends west into La/Ms gulf coast. Something to watch as eps and gefs is hinting at

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[weatherfide]

From Charlie to Katrina, or maybe just a tropical depression...Who knows? (Katrina-esqe on the 18z GFS).

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we'll have a legit threat to the US mainland this season after all. And it could be a big one.

 

[NoSnowATL]

@accu35 - you ok?

 

[Thor]

On the spring break tour from Cancun to bourbon Street, have to respect that, I always doubt the sit and stall with storms this size though, although obviously a few notable outliers in recent memory.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The last few years we have seen canes strengthen quickly when they get into the Gulf, too.

 

[weatherfide]

Wait, now it's taking a hard right into Pensacola...