Good possibility and eventually it probably still comes north, just how far west before that happens, who knows. Euro probably shoot NE ots in a little bit lolWould think the further west solution is worse...meaning eventually stronger cane out in central gulf?
If it gets west, weak, slow its going to get caught under the ridge expanding east across the US and slow to a crawl. The outlet is still to the N/NE but it's not going to be a rocket like previous GFS and Euro runsIt's taking it's sweet time in the GOM on this GFS run that's for sure
I'd expect that the windshield wiper effect to continue until the transit near or over S America is resolved. The gfs is really more of a deep carribbean system versus a MDR or eastern carribbean origin system not that it changes a ton but the climo is differentCMC landfall just around New Orleans, it's come east while the GFS has gone west.... but as Shane points out, really a crap shoot until we have something legit to track. Models don't know what to do with a sheared land interacting trough axis. Would be funny as heck if this thing got obliterated by the South American coast and nothing developed.