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Tropical Hurricane Ian

BullCityWx said:
If it pulls a michael, thats a whole nother thing for sure. I had the honor of being outside when that squall line came through.
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Yeah I made sure to be inside because I was not walking down morrill drive in ncsu campus to class whne that went through with its winds . All those pine trees
 
Lickwx said:
Son stop telling people what to like and what not to like. My like has 0 impact on reality . How about we stop being self righteous ? Would be great.
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How about we stop bickering already good lord. What's going to happen is going to happen whether people cheer for or against it
 
Quick note- I think a lot of models overdo strengthening/underdo weakening as storms get close to/ride the coast. Best example is Matthew in 2016, which model after model/even official NHC forecasts had a major landfalling/just off the coast of NC/SC. Matthew was obviously significant and a big deal but as far as *hurricane structure* goes it was hanging on to dear life as a low grade Cat 1 when it eventually made landfall. More often than not land interaction is a death blow and I doubt the Euro Op has any real shot of happening for NC. (Also some synoptic shenanigans, with an upper low capturing that... how many mistimed phases have we seen with winter storms over that exact latitude?)
 
ILMRoss said:
Quick note- I think a lot of models overdo strengthening/underdo weakening as storms get close to/ride the coast. Best example is Matthew in 2016, which model after model/even official NHC forecasts had a major landfalling/just off the coast of NC/SC. Matthew was obviously significant and a big deal but as far as *hurricane structure* goes it was hanging on to dear life as a low grade Cat 1 when it eventually made landfall. More often than not land interaction is a death blow and I doubt the Euro Op has any real shot of happening for NC. (Also some synoptic shenanigans, with an upper low capturing that... how many mistimed phases have we seen with winter storms over that exact latitude?)
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Agreed there. Thats why unless I see this thing moving like Hugo did(about 4 hours from landfall to charlotte), I doubt extreme wind solutions.
 
BullCityWx said:
Agreed there. Thats why unless I see this thing moving like Hugo did(about 4 hours from landfall to charlotte), I doubt extreme wind solutions.
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I actually somewhat disagree. Something I find interesting about hurricanes is how they all seem to choose their own adventure once they make it onto land. Sometimes they fizzle out, but sometimes their strength can carry well inland and the news will run "whoa, 10M people are without power" chyrons because 70+ gusts mixed down and nabbed a string of big cities, maybe NOLA-Nashville-Pittsburg (dumb example). There's been a little work investigating how dry air intrusion can actually cause high gusts to mix down and have big gusts translate well away from landfall. I think this happened in both Michael remnants and Zeta (or one of those weird greek storms in 2020) in the Triangle. Big wind will always be on the table. What I doubt is that this storm will be captured by a ULL and slung back into the coast- that feels extreme
 
spitting out outflows like crazy right now. Looking at sat images right now would not lead anyone to believe this will become what the models suggest it will become
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_17.png

GFS more further west and weaker than the 0z.
 
How many big gulf canes had this setup...wish Eric was around he would probably know off the top of his head.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4139600.png
 
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