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Tropical Hurricane Ian

My best quess of where the wave pocket is, but it's really hard to tell. This is not very defined at the moment and still getting blasted with northerly shear. Fiona needs to get on before this has a change to lift north more over water and organize.
View attachment 121734
I think this is accurate, little west of your arrows now, but vis loop sure would indicate this is where there is some slight turning.... but yeah shear is brutal. Still seems as if land interaction is helping or may help with the spin up
 
My best quess of where the wave pocket is, but it's really hard to tell. This is not very defined at the moment and still getting blasted with northerly shear. Fiona needs to get on before this has a change to lift north more over water and organize.
View attachment 121734
Hmmm I spy with my little eye 1663859151769.png
 
It seems like we will start to see more organization of the system by 12z tomorrow morning, which (if it happens at all) will give us a lot more details even versus today's data.

From my understanding the weaker a storm, the more it kind of "meanders" around slowly and needs more influence to steer around and on the other hand, the stronger the system, the easier it is influenced in it's steering.

If the above is true, I'd assume the stronger solutions would be quicker and on the Eastern side of guidance.

Edit: 12z GFS is coming in with a faster system versus previous run and it may even miss the Yucatan on future frames. :confused:
 
On the bright side, pressure isn't in the 920s like the runs from Yesterday.

GFS is questionable always with it's pressure forecasts, thankfully. It's Cat 3 and strengtehning based off current run though, just chillin' off the Gulf coast. Cat 4 forecast incoming? Time will tell.
 
It's lifting out and GFS becomes trapped
Yeah, it's just meandering north there and what's worse is that it keeps it over water longer because there's nothing to pick it up yet. It just misses the trough so all it has is that slow northward component. Hopefully that doesn't end up happening because the storm surge with that is going to be terrible
 
Pensicola-bound this time it seems
sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png
 
As that ASCAT pass showed earlier and you can clearly see it on vis sat now, there is a definitive vigorous spin over water off the South American coast... once the outflow from Fiona starts to subside might see this develop fairly quick. @Shawn 12Z guesstimate seems very plausible. Tomorrow at this time we may actually be tracking something or tomorrow evening
 
As that ASCAT pass showed earlier and you can clearly see it on vis sat now, there is a definitive vigorous spin over water off the South American coast... once the outflow from Fiona starts to subside might see this develop fairly quick. @Shawn 12Z guesstimate seems very plausible. Tomorrow at this time we may actually be tracking something or tomorrow evening
Hey, who you callin' an ASCAT? ?
 
Imagine the strength the canadian would've shown had it bent back over water another 100 miles east. Looks like landfall directly over Edisto. Beach. If I remember correctly, a land falling cane down around Edisto or just further north is a worst case scenario for storm surge and the peninsula.
 
While not ideal for the central gulf coast, the fact that the trough completely whiffs on picking up the storm, this is going to allow for much needed rain inland from MS through NC. Would not want to be anywhere near NOLA to the western panhandle when it comes through.
 
Imagine the strength the canadian would've shown had it bent back over water another 100 miles east. Looks like landfall directly over Edisto. Beach. If I remember correctly, a land falling cane down around Edisto or just further north is a worst case scenario for storm surge and the peninsula.

Yep, Edisto is kind of a one way in and out deal too. I believe it was Matthew that wreaked havoc along that area which they had to rebuild the beaches over. Took a couple houses out into the ocean too.
 
Something else to bring up. I know we like to get caught up in the exact pressure on global models but when a global model computes for a strengthening system like this, they usually tend to underestimate the strength. This is why we use hurricane models to bring the scale size down to the hurricane or storm itself and therefor you get a much better read on pressure fluctuations along the path. Plus we know from a general sense that hurricane strength is very hard to predict vs path. I would focus more on where the storm is headed in global models and then look to mesoscale hurricane models to pin point potentials in strength more accurately.
 
As that ASCAT pass showed earlier and you can clearly see it on vis sat now, there is a definitive vigorous spin over water off the South American coast... once the outflow from Fiona starts to subside might see this develop fairly quick. @Shawn 12Z guesstimate seems very plausible. Tomorrow at this time we may actually be tracking something or tomorrow evening
One thing I do know is to never underestimate the west Caribbean. If the east side is the graveyard, the west is the nursery.
 
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