BHS1975
Member
Looks like the broad center is near Trinidad.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
DadOfJax
Member
Very favorable trend for AL….much needed rain appears to be on the way. Not so favorable if you are on the coast however. Anywhere from NOLA to PCB looks to be in the zone. Should slowly begin to narrow from here on out.
iGRXY
Member
Still think the eastern panhandle is the most favorable track and then up the 85 corridor. If you look at the upper dynamics and with a trough rolling through that just makes the most sense.
This has tightened up a good bit and really not huge spread for that far out. Euro really hasn't wavered
Yeah, until there is an actual low pressure center, I still think we’re gonna see a wide variety in what we see models do. The overall theme from the H5 look still leads me to believe the biggest threat is the eastern Gulf coast. The latest CMC wants to develop the system too quickly IMO… still a good deal dry air from Fiona’s outflow to deal with in the next day or two. The GFS looks to be too slow as I think once the dry air is overcome development should take off in a hurry. The Euro appears to be a good mean to follow.
The GEFS however showing the Shetley rain shield doing work....
With the potential interaction with the trough as it comes in, much of the southeast could be in for heavy rain as moisture get pulled well north and northeast of the system. Opal in 1995 is good example of that.
UK pretty much agrees with the Euro, might not be quite as deep with the EC trough but still eastern GOM with our system
Yep, doubt seriously the models have a good handle on totals at this point. TC interacting with a trough can lead to some massive qpf that models will struggle with initially
This is an unsatisfying answer but I’m not really paying attention to models until Saturday when there should be a little more substance with our invest.
This is wise, it's just the rest of us have nothing better to do lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Truly all we can do is look at the possibilities. Sure, there's a strong indicator that this system that has yet to form will hit the US, but where and how strong has yet to even be determined. Too many fine factors that we need to just wait on. Sure the Euro has a tight consensus and consistency but there's been past cases where modeling is consistent and wrong because some monkey wrench shows up and suddenly throws the entire thing into a new path. Too early to make any calls as to where it'll go.
One thing that I’ve seen trip up both hobbyists and seasoned mets alike over the years is overweighting model consensus and consistency. Which don’t get me wrong, are two great things to have. But when those two factors are there people are liable to treat a forecast like a stone cold lock, and almost all of us know better than that lol. Humans crave order. At this point it’s smart to factor in a wide error range so that those inevitable monkey wrenches are easy pills to swallow and not breaking your entire order of how a storm should go.
I have absolutely nothing better to do either I’m cleaning my apt because for some reason I volunteered to host people for Thursday night football, I don’t care about the Steelers or browns, why am I doing this to myself
This a great point and really why I focus more on the H5 set up as opposed to the individual solutions. The caveat right now is that we don’t as of yet have an organized system and we may still be 48 hours or more from having one if we do.
One thing we need to keep in mind as well is as has been brought up a 1000 times in the other threads, the GFS loves to over so long term ridging. The wall to wall heat wave showing a week or so ago, turned out to be three days.
Henry2326
Member
That is a really great point. Model consensus and consistency 10 days out (and really, you can substitute 7 days out) for a specific weather feature isn't worth the screen it's printed on. Pattern-wise, you could make a case for consensus. But for a hurricane, not so much.
Right now, I would give the system a high probability of becoming a named system and making it into the Gulf. Based on experience and the pattern to date, I would place the higher probability on it being a little slower to develop. I would also place a lower probability on deep troughing shunting it hard right down the line. I still like east/central-ish Gulf going up west of the apps somewhere. If it stalls or slows to a crawl in the Gulf, then it will probably take a hard right at some point.
Very true it seems with the models of late on specific weather features. However I was looking back at the last few years and I gotta say that the Euro has done really well with the path of tropical systems, especially once there is a actual center to track… the Euro was within 50 miles of the landfall points of both Michael and Laura at 7 days out.
smast16
Member
My best quess of where the wave pocket is, but it's really hard to tell. This is not very defined at the moment and still getting blasted with northerly shear. Fiona needs to get on before this has a change to lift north more over water and organize.
