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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Meteorologist1999 said:
You mean western Cuba. Do you guys think that west turn into Carolina’s is possible?
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Definitely possible but trough orientation and strength is very key here .. there are multiple scenarios that get it to hook back towards us and multiple to keep it away .. that stuff won’t be cleared up this far out. My question is how strong would it really be even if it did come back our way. My guess is if it scraped through Florida like models show it will be much weaker and probably have less time to get going to give us a huge wind threat. Flooding potential would be the largest threat for us at this time imo.
 
metwannabe said:
Captain obvious here but dang look at that west shift, you start getting it to cross western Cuba (flatter terrain) or shoot the gap and becomes a much bigger deal intensity wise. Little more spread too now, I mean dang some almost into Central America before it turns N
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Also south FL is not really cane killer terrain and with decent forward speed it may do a good job of holding together on some of those tracks across the everglades etc... which encreases our odds of real impacts if there is a second landfall in NC.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
As has been my thinking the models continue to relocate the initialization of the storm further SW and there for the track long term does the same. You have an exposed LLC that is trying to relocate under the heaviest convection that continues to fire. As always you cant look at models 6-7 days away and not expect track changes, they WILL happen. As for models strength predictions they are UNDERDOING the strength forecast IMO by a long shot. Look at how much little shear is effecting this once it gets up into the NW Caribbean. Bath water, no shear, great ventilation = rapid intensification. This environment easily will facilitate a major hurricane. One much stronger than those euro ensembles are painting (999 mbs in this environment?!?! Not happening) View attachment 121850
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Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does. 1663943054916.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Also south FL is not really cane killer terrain and with decent forward speed it may do a good job of holding together on some of those tracks across the everglades etc... which encreases our odds of real impacts if there is a second landfall in NC.
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Also will be passing over 90 degree water an may even strengthen some over the everglades.


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I think you’ll continue to see some west corrections and I’m going minimum category 4 once it gets into those waters just south and west of Cuba. Highly doubt it’ll lose any strength even if it crosses western Cuba as terrain in minimum and the width of the island is extremely thin. The biggest issue is where the NE turn happens and how sharp will it be. The further west it gets the further north it’s going to likely get into Florida and the closer it’s going to be to the Carolina coast and the trough. There’s multiple scenarios where we could get some serious flooding rains through Georgia and the Carolinas. Florida looks all but ground zero at this point. Now it’s a matter of central Florida or potentially the far northeastern sections of the panhandle.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does. View attachment 121854
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Look at that potential if it shoots the gap and follows the west edge of the cone. That's a worst case scenario there as far as a monster is concerned.
 
The latest NHC intensity forecast has been increased
from the previous one and explicitly calls for rapid intensification
as the cyclone crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The system
is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and Cuba as a
strengthening hurricane, with additional intensification likely once
it emerges over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
 
Regarding areas outside of S. Florida, the air mass ahead of the storm would argue strongly for a rapidly weakening storm. So, it seems that the further west the storm tracks in the Gulf, the weaker it will be at landfall.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
 
accu35 said:
I mean, even if there’s a trend west in the furture, it gonna be hard to come up further with that trough. There’s no way it gets into the western Pandhandle while we at 50s at night lol.
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Yeah, I can't recall an air mass that cold with a hurricane plowing into it....wide right for us makes sense or a trapped/dying storm like the 6z GFS showed.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Regarding areas outside of S. Florida, the air mass ahead of the storm would argue strongly for a rapidly weakening storm. So, it seems that the further west the storm tracks in the Gulf, the weaker it will be at landfall.
gfs_Td2m_us_22.png
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I don't think I'd rely on this safeguard, if some of the intensity models are realized and this is an elite-level hurricane with a large/strong core, it will take a lot of time for dry air to get entrained and cause a difference. I think you could make this argument closer to the Carolinas latitude but Tampa-southward this won't be an issue. If it weakens it will likely be because of shear/ewrc.
 
Now that we have TD 10. I wonder if that will develop 1st into a tropical storm before this does and this will become Ian and not Hermine.
 
ncskywarn said:
My guess is they're going to have to cancel the attempt on the 27th. Because if it does not make that launch date they're not gonna have time to roll it back to the VAB before this thing hits.
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if they roll back, I believe they will miss this launch window as well. After all the mishaps, NASA prob pounding walls right now.
 
JimRussell said:
if they roll back, I believe they will miss this launch window as well. After all the mishaps, NASA prob pounding walls right now.
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Yeah if it misses this window the next launch window opportunity is the 17th to the 31st of October.
 
ILMRoss said:
I don't think I'd rely on this safeguard, if some of the intensity models are realized and this is an elite-level hurricane with a large/strong core, it will take a lot of time for dry air to get entrained and cause a difference. I think you could make this argument closer to the Carolinas latitude but Tampa-southward this won't be an issue. If it weakens it will likely be because of shear/ewrc.
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I'd agree with Tampa southward. Unless the storm is completely captured by the incoming trough and rockets NE, it'll be a shell of its former self anywhere north of 28N.
 
12Z GFS thru 78 hours is slightly slower and ever so slightly west of 6Z. The trough over the EC is digging a little deeper than the past few runs as well, which bodes for a sharper turn even with the more west-based placement.
 
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Okay. I finally have time to go all-in on this system. In my opinion, the storm is beginning to improve its structure as shear seems to be lessening to the north. I am aware of the area of vigorous Lower Level Spin to the NE of convection, but I believe there is a broad LLC that will start to focus to the W (or N/NNE of strongest convection/500MB vorticity). The HH sees the merging of these two areas based on the flight patten. Upper Level Divergence is improving over this area as well as the concentration of convergence now that Fiona is blasting off to the North. I believe we will start seeing more considerable strengthening in about 12-18 hours.

I think the models will move the storm west as we see the spin underneath the SW convection battle for supremacy, and the location of our eventual LLC starts to concentrate between the two areas of LLC. Once an LLC is established, I think we see Rapid Intensification happen much sooner than models anticipate (30-42 Hours). All the ingredients will be available (Bathtub Water, Amazing Upper Level Environment for exhaust, Good Forward Speed). The area it will traverse will be Lift as areas to its N and S will be suppressed (areas of subsidence). We already see the storm starting to fan out on the later satellite images. I think the models will shift the storm to East as (if) the storm rapidly intensifies. It will feel the effects of another East Coast Trough, which have been routinely getting stuck over Northern Florida for the last few weeks, and has finally allowed us to get a rainy season down in S. Florida this September.
 
Trough lifting sooner on the 12z GFS allowing the storm to resume more of a NNW movement rather than making the turn into mid-FL. Looking like a Big Bend hit on this run
 
ncskywarn said:
Not surprisingly I've also heard the NWS is ordering extra balloon launches for air sampling purposes.
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I heard that on the Weather Channel. This a very serious threat as opposed to the NHC just using up unused resources because of a relatively quiet season. We are literally 3-4 days before impacts could be felt, and I can honestly tell you that people in South Florida are not ready. Particularly the transplants.
 
Going to be interesting to see if the Euro agrees with the cmc and gfs on kicking the trough out and collapsing the steering so this really slows down west of FL and has to wait for the WAR to flex or something to the west to kick it. It's crazy that the cmc and gfs are almost on top of each other even at 192 hours
 
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