Yeah I meant western Cuba, thanks.You mean western Cuba. Do you guys think that west turn into Carolina’s is possible?
Sure anything is possible, too early to be concerned not too early to be prepared.
Yeah I meant western Cuba, thanks.You mean western Cuba. Do you guys think that west turn into Carolina’s is possible?
Definitely possible but trough orientation and strength is very key here .. there are multiple scenarios that get it to hook back towards us and multiple to keep it away .. that stuff won’t be cleared up this far out. My question is how strong would it really be even if it did come back our way. My guess is if it scraped through Florida like models show it will be much weaker and probably have less time to get going to give us a huge wind threat. Flooding potential would be the largest threat for us at this time imo.You mean western Cuba. Do you guys think that west turn into Carolina’s is possible?
Pretty nice western shift as well as more members shooting the gap....sticking to my prediction.
Captain obvious here but dang look at that west shift, you start getting it to cross western Cuba (flatter terrain) or shoot the gap and becomes a much bigger deal intensity wise. Little more spread too now, I mean dang some almost into Central America before it turns N
Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does.As has been my thinking the models continue to relocate the initialization of the storm further SW and there for the track long term does the same. You have an exposed LLC that is trying to relocate under the heaviest convection that continues to fire. As always you cant look at models 6-7 days away and not expect track changes, they WILL happen. As for models strength predictions they are UNDERDOING the strength forecast IMO by a long shot. Look at how much little shear is effecting this once it gets up into the NW Caribbean. Bath water, no shear, great ventilation = rapid intensification. This environment easily will facilitate a major hurricane. One much stronger than those euro ensembles are painting (999 mbs in this environment?!?! Not happening) View attachment 121850
Also south FL is not really cane killer terrain and with decent forward speed it may do a good job of holding together on some of those tracks across the everglades etc... which encreases our odds of real impacts if there is a second landfall in NC.
Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does. View attachment 121854
All assuming it does go for south Florida. It'd anywhere from the keys to the panhandle still. It's these fine early shifts that will tell us in the next 2 days.Also will be passing over 90 degree water an may even strengthen some over the everglades.
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Look at that potential if it shoots the gap and follows the west edge of the cone. That's a worst case scenario there as far as a monster is concerned.Added to this check out the ocean heat content available here. As an almost met If this don’t scream rapid intensification I dont know what does. View attachment 121854
This should travel over the best ocean temp/heat content around. I think a Major at both landfalls very possible.
I mean, even if there’s a trend west in the furture, it gonna be hard to come up further with that trough. There’s no way it gets into the western Pandhandle while we at 50s at night lol.
Yeah, I can't recall an air mass that cold with a hurricane plowing into it....wide right for us makes sense or a trapped/dying storm like the 6z GFS showed.I mean, even if there’s a trend west in the furture, it gonna be hard to come up further with that trough. There’s no way it gets into the western Pandhandle while we at 50s at night lol.
I don't think I'd rely on this safeguard, if some of the intensity models are realized and this is an elite-level hurricane with a large/strong core, it will take a lot of time for dry air to get entrained and cause a difference. I think you could make this argument closer to the Carolinas latitude but Tampa-southward this won't be an issue. If it weakens it will likely be because of shear/ewrc.Regarding areas outside of S. Florida, the air mass ahead of the storm would argue strongly for a rapidly weakening storm. So, it seems that the further west the storm tracks in the Gulf, the weaker it will be at landfall.
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Did Sandy a few years back do something similar to this?Yeah, I can't recall an air mass that cold with a hurricane plowing into it....wide right for us makes sense or a trapped/dying storm like the 6z GFS showed.
My guess is they're going to have to cancel the attempt on the 27th. Because if it does not make that launch date they're not gonna have time to roll it back to the VAB before this thing hits.This is really going to make things tricky for NASA and the Artemis launch scheduled for next Tuesday.....
No I don’t. Lol. I agree with that. Sorry didn’t see itYou got me on ignore? I said that twice. Someone else even posted a map.
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Honestly spot on IMHO. I would be a major for Cuba landfall.
If it does, be afraid. I named storms are bad news.Now that we have TD 10. I wonder if that will develop 1st into a tropical storm before this does and this will become Ian and not Hermine.
if they roll back, I believe they will miss this launch window as well. After all the mishaps, NASA prob pounding walls right now.My guess is they're going to have to cancel the attempt on the 27th. Because if it does not make that launch date they're not gonna have time to roll it back to the VAB before this thing hits.
Yeah if it misses this window the next launch window opportunity is the 17th to the 31st of October.if they roll back, I believe they will miss this launch window as well. After all the mishaps, NASA prob pounding walls right now.
I'd agree with Tampa southward. Unless the storm is completely captured by the incoming trough and rockets NE, it'll be a shell of its former self anywhere north of 28N.I don't think I'd rely on this safeguard, if some of the intensity models are realized and this is an elite-level hurricane with a large/strong core, it will take a lot of time for dry air to get entrained and cause a difference. I think you could make this argument closer to the Carolinas latitude but Tampa-southward this won't be an issue. If it weakens it will likely be because of shear/ewrc.
Not surprisingly I've also heard the NWS is ordering extra balloon launches for air sampling purposes.