Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Snow_chaser]

Yep, @SD answered it of course. And if you look at this image of the 12z Euro you can see interaction with that diving trough, even starting to tug it some but it's too late and basically pulls it back up into Atlantic Canada, but it's not far off from pulling it sooner. All depends on timing of both, TC and the trough, and how deep/location of that trough

Ummm that would smack me with the northern wall eventually

I haven’t been keeping up, when did you relocate to Pensacola?

 

[Shaggy]

Gefs mslp map.shows stronger members clustered further north compared to 12z and very much in line with the euro

 

[Shaggy]

Thats a pretty tight cluster actually

 

[$alt]

I've always liked the blend of the Euro and GFS. Still a long ways out; and we need a defined area of circulation to even get an idea of what's going to happen track wise. Hopefully tomorrow will answer some questions.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I haven’t been keeping up, when did you relocate to Pensacola?

I think he's in Port Saint Lucie. I could be wrong.

 

[Snowfan]

PSL is the abbreviation for Port Saint Lucie.

I think he's in Port Saint Lucie. I could be wrong.

 

[$alt]

 

[deltadog03]

Yes Port St. Lucie FL

 

[Henry2326]

955 to 979 in 12 hours as comes on shore....

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 121798

Well I said between Panama City beach and Tampa look like the best landfall locations right now and sure enough, it’s smack right in the middle

 

[Snowfan]

955 to 979 in 12 hours as comes on shore....

View attachment 121799

It's crossing into some high wind shear in the northern Gulf. The Euro is a worse case scenario because it doesn't move in too much wind shear.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Rare landfall location if it happened

 

[Shaggy]

The change on the gefs is pretty significant

 

[Metwannabe]

Still sheared like crazy but some decent convection with it tonight, can still see the rotation too. Just need Fiona outflow outta here

 

[iGRXY]

Updates hurricane models look like a perfect blend of the GFS and EURO

 

[Stevo24]

View attachment 121802
Updates hurricane models look like a perfect blend of the GFS and EURO

I was really hoping we would get a drought buster here in the upstate. Looking less and less likely. I’m tired of all these Eastern tracks.

 

[weatherboyy]

There's no way this storm is going to make a hard right turn like it's showing on the model guidance I seen this done before or I'm tripping

 

[Snowflowxxl]

There's no way this storm is going to make a hard right turn like it's showing on the model guidance I seen this done before or I'm tripping

Tripping bruh

 

[weatherboyy]

Tripping bruh

lol

 

[KyloG]

The trend today on the EPS is for a much deeper/south trough which really helps keep the ts away from the coast…except for FL. That is one cold air mass.