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Tropical Hurricane Ian

NickyBGuarantee said:
Key take away from this is where is our center once we get to 80W are we close to if not on 15N or are we sitting at 13-14N.. closer to 15 we are by that time means east camp will win out. Closer to 13-14N west camp will win out. View attachment 121970
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Interesting to see several West AL and Western MS paths on this graphic.
 
I’m exhausted from LLC prognostication and this broad pressure field and red herring centers. If that NW hot tower remains consistent I could see it trying to consolidate around 14.7ish but who knows man. Everyone here would be better served arguing if mack brown gets fired after the fighting Irish get a dub in kenan
 
ILMRoss said:
I’m exhausted from LLC prognostication and this broad pressure field and red herring centers. If that NW hot tower remains consistent I could see it trying to consolidate around 14.7ish but who knows man. Everyone here would be better served arguing if mack brown gets fired after the fighting Irish get a dub in kenan
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It kind of feels like this...


"North is better"
"No. South is better" .
 
Pretty chaotic system from the recon flight. That new convective blow up to the north might to make a vort in that area dominant until it doesn't and we get a new puff of convection elsewhere.

The big take away from the 12z runs for me was that even if the actual core of the system is west the long fetch of moisture from the deep tropics will expand the heavy rain/flood threat well E/NE of the eventual track.
 
From KATL, KFFC:
LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Will have a dry start to the work week with some near normal max
temps starting Monday then gradually cooling trend into midweek as
regime stays near the southern extent of a lingering broad upper
trough. Definitely the main focus is on the tropics as now
Tropical Storm Ian in the southern Caribbean is forecast to have a
swing in the track to the NW likely placing the center near
western Cuba by Tuesday, then a more northerly track into Wed/Thu.
From pretty much this northern turn point, many ensemble members
of the varied models start to still have decent spread in east vs.
west tracks going into the northern Gulf or western coast of FL.
The GFS continues to be a more western solution that lifts/dampens
the persistent trough to the north quicker and loses some of the
steering potential for eastward influence. The HWRF solution also
favors a more westward track that could end up with a stronger
intensity over more of the warm Gulf and possible loop current. If
this does pan out then it would be close to the FL Panhandle or
south AL coast by late Thursday or early Friday and may bring
impacts to the area, though if it trends to more of what the Euro
has been indicating with a the trough lingering a bit longer then
it would favor more eastward potentially near western FL, but then
a stronger Bermuda high may steer it oddly back NW that could
still impact GA, but could be a weaker system with less of the
area in the "dirty" side east of the circulation center. Still
plenty of time for the models to continue to lack consensus or
some run-to-run consistency and will obviously keep a close eye on
any increased chance for impacts in central or northern GA near
the end of the work week. The official NHC track has been nudged
more west with some recent updates and now doing extra upper air
releases should allow for improved intermediate runs of guidance.

Baker
 
Memphis NWS is also talking about the uncertainty of Ian:


Full attention will brought to Tropical Storm Ian (likely
hurricane before too long) by the middle of next week as it
meanders through the GOM and makes landfall somewhere along the
Gulf Coast. Lots of uncertainty wrt to track and intensity
remains, so making any long term forecast with accuracy remains
low at this time. Nonetheless, the ECMWF does bring the remnants
of this storm potentially into eastern portions of the Mid-South
by next weekend. Stay tuned.
 
Birmingham Afternoon Discussion

LONG TERM...
Issued at 330 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2022

Little change to the forecast for Monday through Wednesday. A
cooler but very dry air mass will move in. Will continue to
monitor for any fire weather concerns especially Wednesday as
gradient winds increase between the high pressure to the north
and Ian to the south. RH red flag warning criteria is met, but
20ft winds are just below criteria, so will hold off on mentioning
in the HWO at this time.

There have been some notable westward shifts in the ensemble means
and NHC forecast track for Tropical Storm Ian over the least 24
hours, as it now appears it will not be completely picked up by
the trough. Uncertainty still remains in the track due to the
weaker steering flow south of the trough. There will be a sharp
moisture gradient on the western side of Ian until it begins to
undergo extratropical transition. Have begun to increase PoPs
Thursday night/Friday given the latest trends, and further
increases will be needed if trends continue. It`s beginning to
appear that there may be some potential for breezy conditions and
locally heavy rainfall somewhere in Central Alabama Thursday
night and Friday if these trends continue as well. Have held off
on mentioning anything in the HWO at this time given the
uncertainty and dry antecedent conditions, but may need to add
something within the next couple forecast cycles.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Memphis NWS is also talking about the uncertainty of Ian:


Full attention will brought to Tropical Storm Ian (likely
hurricane before too long) by the middle of next week as it
meanders through the GOM and makes landfall somewhere along the
Gulf Coast. Lots of uncertainty wrt to track and intensity
remains, so making any long term forecast with accuracy remains
low at this time. Nonetheless, the ECMWF does bring the remnants
of this storm potentially into eastern portions of the Mid-South
by next weekend. Stay tuned.
Click to expand...
LOL at KMEG..
 
SD said:
The icon really isn't any worse than any of the 250 ensemble members that get posted on here and really it's right in line with the eastern camp. Doesn't mean it's right but it's not some off the wall track it's showing
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As the 5pm stated the Ballon releases and G4 missions over the next 24 hours will settle them down hopefully
 
iGRXY said:
GFS feedback issues apparent as we have almost 48 hours straight of precip with several hours of heavy stuff but some how only ended up with an inch of QPF lol
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Looking beautiful if you want rain in the upstate.
 
Dropsonde (14.8, 77.4)
1005mb (29.68 inHg)Surface (Sea Level)26.0°C (78.8°F)24.1°C (75°F)35° (from the NE)33 knots (38 mph)

54MPH Flight Level and 46MPH Ground Level Wind. (15.4,78).

Ian (2022) - Sonde - Atlantic NOAA Miss. 5 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Ian in 2022 from NOAA mission 5 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
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Maybe banter, don’t care of the track or intensity as long as we get much needed rain! Not to sound uncaring if the effects are bad along landfalling areas!
 
iGRXY said:
GFS feedback issues apparent as we have almost 48 hours straight of precip with several hours of heavy stuff but some how only ended up with an inch of QPF lol
Click to expand...
This is what I was mentioning earlier. Firehose of moisture riding up and over CAD is gonna produce a widespread soaker…the GFS wants to focus all the QPF to those bright bands it shows at the coast and SC low country
 
Once we get a little more agreement on track we will probably start an Ian inland impact thread since there's likely to be a large heavy rain, gradient wind, tornado threat well removed from the CoC. Before anyone complains we as staff believe this makes sense and helps the posts flow better regarding impact. What doesn't make sense is a page like:

Recon data
Radar picture
How much rain for Jonesville
Tornado threat for South ga
It's windy in Greenville nc
Comment on Ian landfall point
Satellite image

This gets messy and confusing
 
SD said:
Once we get a little more agreement on track we will probably start an Ian inland impact thread since there's likely to be a large heavy rain, gradient wind, tornado threat well removed from the CoC. Before anyone complains we as staff believe this makes sense and helps the posts flow better regarding impact. What doesn't make sense is a page like:

Recon data
Radar picture
How much rain for Jonesville
Tornado threat for South ga
It's windy in Greenville nc
Comment on Ian landfall point
Satellite image

This gets messy and confusing
Click to expand...
Big kidney bean threat ?️
 
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