brendan123
Member
Can’t remember if the HRRR is even close to reliable with tropical systems at this range, but it looked to be taking Ian inland between Ft. Myers and Venice.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Can’t remember if the HRRR is even close to reliable with tropical systems at this range, but it looked to be taking Ian inland between Ft. Myers and Venice.
967 with some wind, we are at 985ish when i woke up this morning, i would call this RI
weather bubba
Member
That brings me back to yesteryear when the Weather Channel actually broadcasted the weather 24/7 at times other than special situations. John Hope was the best the Weather Channel ever had although Steve Lyons and Richard Knabb knew what they were doing too. It seemed like John Hope would insert the phrase "As time goes by" into every sentence.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Totals keep going up here along the escarpment
Tornadocane
Member
The 200-700Mb Level of the atmosphere is trying to steer the system to the NNE as the 700-850Mb steering slows or completely collapses after Cuba. I can't imagine Ian just heading north without wobbling to the East with a strong storm. I suspect horizontal sheer will also blow convection towards the NE side of the storm, and it already looks like it's having an impact on the NW side.
Also, This system is Definitely Rapidly Intensifying at the moment. I'd say the strength is accelerating ahead of model outputs.
Also, This system is Definitely Rapidly Intensifying at the moment. I'd say the strength is accelerating ahead of model outputs.
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Tornadocane
Member
I think it's about 10Mbs lower than the pressure from just a few hours ago.
Impressive either way but is this over a 3 day period or a 1 day?
Here is current steering.
I agree
MichaelAndrews
Member
Somebody sneezes the wrong way and Charleston floods, that would be disaster and luckily not many here have faith in that model lol
Thor
Member
Hurricane models jumping east
I noticed while still headed for the big bend, the WRF is a whole degree east of 12z at 42hrs.
Recon punching center now.
Shaggy
Member
Will be interesting for real time motion becuase it sure looks almost due north
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Recon found a 967mb pressure so far…
965.2 mb with 27 kts per the NOAA.
232230 2040N 08319W 7511 02222 9652 +195 +163 249021 027 038 000 00
232230 2040N 08319W 7511 02222 9652 +195 +163 249021 027 038 000 00
Henry2326
Member
18z HMON crosses FL and enters Atlantic (continues its trend)
BHS1975
Member
Henry2326
Member
18z HWRF following GFS.....
Henry2326
Member
18z HMON moves across Charleston. Continuing its trend.
Is the HMON the Far East outlier?
Henry2326
Member
Uk, Icon, and Hmon all have 2nd LF at Charleston, as well as a couple in the spaghetti models.
UK
Only time will tell!
Euro East and stronger! Landfall I believe is now south of Tampa
Don’t pay to see the Euro, is the 48hr stall still on the table?
Finally starting to close off .. Cuba friction should help get this thing wound up tonight. Trends of a further East track and further south landfall track is very worrisome. This will allow less time for the storm to weaken. Not good.
It seems forecasting the track of hurricanes has become harder instead of easier, especially ones in the Gulf.
Tornadocane
Member
SE Florida needs to be put under Tropical Storm Watches immediately, and Hurricane Watches should be extended down the SW Coast down to the Naples area (Collier County).
TerryInTucker
Member
To be honest not really. Our track forecasts have improved drastically. Only reason this one is so tough is the lack of real strong driving steering flow. These are known to have wild shifts because models are trying to see what if anything is driving these storms during these patterns.
I don't know, seems it's been tough a lot the last decade or so with the ones in the Gulf to pinpoint the track.
Any of them to be honest! How many times did the track change for Florence?
Henry2326
Member
00z
JHS
Member
That is a very big shift by the Euro and it is probably going to be right. Comes out near Daytona and I'm willing to bet that if the run kept going it never would make the north turn or would do so in time to just scrape the Outer Banks of NC. The other models will follow suit with their next run and this will probably not be coming back west.