ForsythSnow
Moderator
Recon is, quite interesting. Don't think it's strong but recon is getting sub 990 pressure now at FL at the center so it's definitely below 994 at this point or so.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
and no matter what upgrades they do it never improves
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Another thing to note is the massive convective blowup at the center to the north beginning. Very cold tops are firing now so we're likely to see intensification truly start if it holds.
Stormsfury
Member
Well extrapolated they're stating 999.7mb but graphics wise, that would look like 990ish.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks to me per the drop near the center it is 992 if I'm interpreting this correctly.
TerryInTucker
Member
Jim Cantore is stationed in Clearwater.... what do y'all think?
Henry2326
Member
Ha....that's a better indicator than the models.
NoSnowATL
Member
So it will hit Destin Fla now.
Brent
Member
The much expected RI may be beginning 992 mb and an eye 
BHS1975
Member
Honestly track wise I’m gonna lean with the eastward leak will continue. Going with just south of Tampa.
I'm around Tampa, just under a major, 974 and decaying, does appear though we have booster ignition and liftoff. Finally, about time, a major by this time tomorrow is on the table, Tampa area is definitely on watch, research shows only two majors to make landfall in the Bay Area directly over the past 150 years.
Stormsfury
Member
Going to be correct. 992mb on last pass plus the RECON is reporting a C18 eye feature open on the W sideLooks to me per the drop near the center it is 992 if I'm interpreting this correctly.
Could be right but I think it’s gonna be a little north north and west of that area. Somewhere around this yellow arrow.
Attachments
I’m waffling between 110-120mph. Agree with the weakening part; that or about to start.
NoSnowJoe
Member
Jeff Piotrowski agrees with you. He said he thinks there will be evacuations in low lying areas starting tomorrow from Ft. Myers to Tampa. He is 90 percent sure major hurricane Ian will hit the area around noonish and later on Wednesday.
Taylor C
Member
Satellite shows an interesting northward component this evening.
I’m gonna take the blend of the models with a lean to the Euro camp and go a bit north of there near Cedar Key… though that can obviously change. That’s still gonna put Tampa in danger of a major storm surge, even from weakening storm as winds would be pushing water straight up the Bay for 12 hours or more.
60 mph and 991 mb.
Henry2326
Member
And it begins.....
Henry2326
Member
18z ICON......wow.....and doesn't look like ots.
957 at Tampa.
957 at Tampa.
It’s definitely getting that look now. I had a feeling Friday that it would take until sometime this afternoon or this evening to really start to see it get going… now that it looks like it is, it should be off to the races
This thing is not gonna cross Florida and come out the other side. It’s just not going to happen.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks to have a similar movement as the 18z gfs. Maybe the cone is really narrowing?
LickWx
Member
Why?
NoSnowATL
Member
BHS1975
Member
Covection still collapsing from dry air.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
00z.....east is the word.
NoSnowATL
Member
In fairness the ICON is a bit on its on island with that now. Even though a few EPS members still do it, more now are actually west of the mean. Of course two days ago the ICON was having it cross FL then become a fish storm, so slowly but surely it’s coming into line with others
SnowwxAtl
Member
This is old? Right?
NoSnowATL
Member
About 15 mins
Notice by landfall on all model sets there show somewhat significant weakening ..major hurricane to high end cat 1
I don’t really see any movement to the east compared to 18z… maybe the western plots have tightened up a bit to narrow the cone, but the eastern plots haven’t really moved all day. I think you’ll see the NHC stay pretty close to the previous forecast tracks at the 11pm update
Hurricane watches up from Venice to Panama City best guess with the 9/26 morning package.
One thing to remember though is that even with the weakening, this still would create a significant to major storm surge. Tampa for instance, would see wind coming straight up the bay for at least 12 hours