Probably the best model agreement we’ve seen this whole time showing the big bend back NW. If it holds at 0Z I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet. Gonna be some rough mountain flooding and mudslides if it does come to fruition.
Tropical Hurricane Ian
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I live 10 miles south of West Palm beach and this line of storms about to come through sound pretty gnarly outside. A few minutes back a tornado warning interrupted the Yankees game. About to buckle in for an interesting 24 hours.
Climo would tend to make me agree, but the WAR is building and I don't think there is a whole lot of room for the system to move any further up the east coast.
Strongly agree, angular momentum argued a N/NNW wobble, guess is we are starting to see trough interaction which was pretty established this afternoon based on radar off east central FL, Volusia county in particular.
Food for thought.....models are jumping into Atlantic at:
Icon. 985
UK. ??
HMON. 995
HWRF. 987. (Only over water 15 hours)
GFS. 989 (only over water 15 hours)
EURO. 985
NAM. 993
It moves over the gulf stream in pristine bath water for 42 hours.
Gotta have intensification occur.....
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Its more about speed IMO, the models and ens that carry it into SC/GA border and NW from there etc tend to be slower and more NNE across Florida with Ian allowing time for the WAR to close the door, the ens that get it further north are quicker across Florida and further out into the ATL letting Ian get further north....if you go back and look at which ens have done the best so far with Ian it is the ones that are faster and further N with the second LF.....so I give them more weight until there is reason not to.
But if you compare the WAR from the 9/26 0Z GFS at 78 hrs to the most recent 18Z run at 36 hours, you will notice the strength of the WAR was over modeled on earlier runs which will allow Ian to make landfall in SW FL instead of the Panhandle. Is the strength of the WAR still over modeled at 72-96 hrs? Time will tell, but if that trend does continue, I think we could see Ian remain over the Atlantic longer and make a 2nd landfall farther north along the east coast.
Wral in Raleigh very bullish on this far western track. Not sure how that impacts rainfall for us though.
WAR retrogrades closer to verification, I'd be interested in your take of the 200mb jet sharpening off the MA.
Going to be quite funny if Atlanta doesn’t get much rain from this after all the local Mets have been hollering about this weekend being a washout
CDO really expanding on IR with ERC just about complete. I’m waiting on a big convective blow up in the north side to get it going.
At that point though, the storm isn’t moving north or northeast… it’s turned back NW as steering switches. In fact both the Icon and UK were further north up the coastline earlier between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, but both have now come noticeably further south close to Charleston.
One of those dang if you do, dang if you don’t. Imagine not saying anything and weekend plans getting ruined by rain.
What are you looking at?? If anything the models today have trended more towards that NW turn. Believe me, I didn’t buy into at first, but it’s very noticeable that the trough is moving too quickly to just grab the storm and continue pulling it NE. GSP mentioned it in there discussion. Without the trough to pull it away, the steering weakens and what steering is there would pull the storm back NW
There’s a slightly large series this weekend at the corner of I-75 and I-285 that a lot of people in that area are hoping for no washout.
I mean they have to make a decision for that series before the series starts, so they could move the games away from Atlanta and Atlanta end up getting no rain.
NAM has been showing landfall south of Tampa for past 36 hours now…my money is on whatever it shows tonight for the 2nd landfall in SC. ?
I get it, but so far the models have frankly stunk.....we are talking pretty big errors even in the 12-24 hr range.....hell Ian is currently east of the NHC cone from just 24 hrs ago....my point is when you compare what the storm is doing to the ensembles, the clusters that take the storm further east and ultimately north are doing better than the others, thats all. It in no way guarantees they will do better with Ian in 48 hrs but it does tell me that those ensembles had the best grasp on the trough and high placement and strengths so far, if that holds then I expect Ian will be further up the coast with the second LF....
Radar returns south of the eye have improved by a lot over the past hour or so.
CDO continues to expand and become more symmetrical. Two hours ago and now. 
That’s fair. I think the biggest thing I’m looking at is the steering that is there when the storm exits Florida. Like I was saying with the trough moving too quickly grab the storm and with a weaker storm at that time, the little steering there is should pull the storm back NW. It’s important to note that a couple days ago, pretty much all the models, the ones going north into the panhandle to the ones crossing Florida, all had that bend back to the NNW to NW at some point, and all have kept it, even with the storm being more east.
Outside the eye, the south and east side are becoming a little empty on radar.
Dry air might also be beginning to be pulled into the system
Is the forward speed expected to be much faster on a further eastern/southern track? Where is the storm currently located to what was expected in modeling? Not an argument but honest questions. I agree that the NW turn will occur but when and how far north?
A buddy of mine in Fort Myers already has ankle deep water in his street & he's miles from the coast. He's about to leave town now. I told him yesterday he needed to leave., but he was being extremely cavalier. A lot of people in his neighborhood have also not left. If this type of mentality is congruent throught SWFL it could be extremely devastating.
Ft myers, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte area appear to be the areas that are going to get it the worst assuming Venice/Englewood stay in the cross hairs. A lot of comments I'm seeing on-line from people down to Naples weren't planning on leaving.
Northern Volusia / Southern St John’s best guess on ATL exit. Mid to upper range TS.
As the trough pulls away and has less effects on the steering, the forward speed would slow, and yes where that NW turn occurs is very important to where that east coast landfall would take place. Earlier models that had the storm out in the Atlantic were turning it later and bringing in a landfall between Myrtle Beach and Cape Fear. Now those have trended to an earlier turn and bringing it in between Savannah and Georgetown.