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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Belle Lechat said:
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He lookin very raggedy on that satellite presentation! ?
 
Looks like some dry air trying to wrap in on the S and SE side. It’s struggling. I don’t think it makes it to a 4, if something doesn’t change soon2EF18A2B-C63F-4938-BC0E-1C6E4C532088.png
 
06z NAM with strengthening 964mb off the SC coast vs 990mb same time last run. It's probably crazy though.



Edit: 3KM NAM completely different all the way around, weak etc. Tracks into Southern GA.
 
metwannabe said:
Might see another eastward shift with track forecast as NHC track is on west side of guidance

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I agree, though I will say these guidance plots seem to be fairly consistent since yesterday at 12z with obviously the normal 30-40 mile waffle back and forth from run to run. Also looking at the water vapor it appears to be a bit more on a due north heading for the last little while… could just be a wobble, but I know the latest HWRF was back to a landfall close to Tampa again
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Eye warming. Explosive lightning continuing to fire in the center. This thing doesn’t give a crap about shear. This area of maxed out velocities has grown substantially. We’re about to witness something horrific in Florida.View attachment 122380View attachment 122379
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and looking at the water vapor right now, there is absolutely no sign of dry air getting into the core… it definitely has a shot at cat 5
 
Cold cloud tops continue to fire and wrap. Models did have this weakening upon landfall but that was mainly for the north Florida coast landfalls where shear is way stronger. I tried to convey that the further south this goes the less it would weaken and caveat it would actually strengthen upon approach since less shear interaction but also less time over water.. turns out it didn’t need time to explode. I mean I’ve never seen a storm withstand for so long these extremely cold cloud tops wrapping the system. F5F560C1-E2AA-4855-B471-978F2FF746EA.jpeg
 
Chazwin said:
I agree, though I will say these guidance plots seem to be fairly consistent since yesterday at 12z with obviously the normal 30-40 mile waffle back and forth from run to run. Also looking at the water vapor it appears to be a bit more on a due north heading for the last little while… could just be a wobble, but I know the latest HWRF was back to a landfall close to Tampa again
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Yeah pretty solid consensus now of exit off NE coast of FL, short trek over Atl back inland Ga/SC.
 
SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...100 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

 
SimeonNC said:
This is just insane, a few days ago models and the NHC had this storm being shredded before landfall.
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The interesting thing about that is that if it were still heading towards the panhandle or Big Bend, it would have been sheared greatly before landfall there, but at this latitude the shear has actually aided the storm and helped it vent its outflow
 
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