Tropical Hurricane Ian

[ForsythSnow]

Recon is, quite interesting. Don't think it's strong but recon is getting sub 990 pressure now at FL at the center so it's definitely below 994 at this point or so.

 

[Chazwin]

GFS returns are so trash man. It’s a shame it has this much of an issue painting a true reflectivity outside of 3 days.

and no matter what upgrades they do it never improves

 

[Stevo24]

Am I the only one who saves vacation days for days like Friday? I just like to sit around the house and watch the radar and enjoy the rain and wind.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Another thing to note is the massive convective blowup at the center to the north beginning. Very cold tops are firing now so we're likely to see intensification truly start if it holds.

 

[Stormsfury]

Well extrapolated they're stating 999.7mb but graphics wise, that would look like 990ish.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Well extrapolated they're stating 999.7mb but graphics wise, that would look like 990ish.
View attachment 122080

Looks to me per the drop near the center it is 992 if I'm interpreting this correctly.

 

[TerryInTucker]

Jim Cantore is stationed in Clearwater.... what do y'all think?

 

[Henry2326]

Jim Cantore is stationed in Clearwater.... what do y'all think?

Ha....that's a better indicator than the models.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Jim Cantore is stationed in Clearwater.... what do y'all think?

So it will hit Destin Fla now.

 

[Brent]

The much expected RI may be beginning 992 mb and an eye

 

[BHS1975]

The much expected RI may be beginning 992 mb and an eye View attachment 122081

Huge blowup -90C tops over the LLC.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[accu35]

There are a good bit of 18z Gefs members that curve back west before landfall. Most putting it western panhandle. Anyone see this? Kinda like what the operational shown.

 

[Arcc]

Honestly track wise I’m gonna lean with the eastward leak will continue. Going with just south of Tampa.

 

[WeatherNC]

Honestly track wise I’m gonna lean with the eastward leak will continue. Going with just south of Tampa.

I'm around Tampa, just under a major, 974 and decaying, does appear though we have booster ignition and liftoff. Finally, about time, a major by this time tomorrow is on the table, Tampa area is definitely on watch, research shows only two majors to make landfall in the Bay Area directly over the past 150 years.

 

[Stormsfury]

Looks to me per the drop near the center it is 992 if I'm interpreting this correctly.

Going to be correct. 992mb on last pass plus the RECON is reporting a C18 eye feature open on the W side

 

[$alt]

Away she goes, -#s look good. Warm waters, nothing to impede his strengthening in the grand scheme for quite a while. Awesome satellite imagery coming over the next day (ortwo)!

 

[Stevo24]

Honestly track wise I’m gonna lean with the eastward leak will continue. Going with just south of Tampa.

Could be right but I think it’s gonna be a little north north and west of that area. Somewhere around this yellow arrow.

 

[Arcc]

I'm around Tampa, just under a major, 974 and decaying, does appear though we have booster ignition and liftoff. Finally, about time, a major by this time tomorrow is on the table, Tampa area is definitely on watch, research shows only two majors to make landfall in the Bay Area directly over the past 150 years.

I’m waffling between 110-120mph. Agree with the weakening part; that or about to start.

 

[NoSnowJoe]

Honestly track wise I’m gonna lean with the eastward leak will continue. Going with just south of Tampa.

Jeff Piotrowski agrees with you. He said he thinks there will be evacuations in low lying areas starting tomorrow from Ft. Myers to Tampa. He is 90 percent sure major hurricane Ian will hit the area around noonish and later on Wednesday.

 

[Taylor C]

Satellite shows an interesting northward component this evening.