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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Time : 102020 UTC
Lat : 26:01:48 N Lon : 82:38:23 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925mb / 135kts

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.2 7.2

The last two #s went up .1 since 30 min ago.

Time : 105020 UTC
Lat : 26:01:48 N Lon : 82:45:00 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925mb / 135kts

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0
And now the last two #s down .2.
 
Dustin, Cape Coral is where you want to be!
 
I can’t believe how stout the eye wall is around this thing right now. Does anyone have the current wind field for the storm. I’d be interested to know how wide the area of strongest winds are and how long they would take to clear a given area
 
last48hrs.gif
 
Is there some hype, yep, but I don't know I'd call it sensationalizing. This is 2mph from being a catastrophic Cat 5 at landfall in Florida. Getting hype over basically a 60 mile wide EF3 tornado is hype worthy, it's a weather forum for crying out loud.
 
metwannabe said:
Is there some hype, yep, but I don't know I'd call it sensationalizing. This is 2mph from being a catastrophic Cat 5 at landfall in Florida. Getting hype over basically a 60 mile wide EF3 tornado is hype worthy, it's a weather forum for crying out loud.
Click to expand...

Total devastation wouldn't be sensationalizing either.


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I wonder why when these monster canes make it all the way up to 155 there seems to be a hesitancy to bump it the 2 mph to a cat 5? Michael was like that, made landfall at the time at 155 and then reclassified to a 5. I know the numbers have to support it, but it seems odd that they classify it that close to a 5.
 
BHS1975 said:
Why hasn't the eye cleaned up?


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Click to expand...
Probably shear and such but in terms of internal mechanics this thing doesn’t give a ---- about shear. It’s too big at this point to have that effect it. It would affect satellite presentation though .. what’s under the hood is what matters.
 
CLTwx said:
Hmm....wonder if this verifies:


Posted just now
Isaiah_Wx CODE RED
@IsaiahHartzell2
RECON has support for a 140 kt storm, 160 MPH, Cat. 5. The next plane is going in for another pass

and: 933.1 mb
Click to expand...
Yep. It looks like Ian has nudged right up to CAT 5. I know there's an argument pressure is irrelevant, but I've always been of the mind that a CAT 5 needs to have a pressure at least in the 920s. Ian looks to make it shortly.
 
So it looks like he's a good measure stronger than advertised on the modelling valid at 12z today. Larger, stronger hurricanes are generally harder to turn, right? I wonder if this affects the next 48 hours.
 
BullCityWx said:
So it looks like he's a good measure stronger than advertised on the modelling valid at 12z today. Larger, stronger hurricanes are generally harder to turn, right? I wonder if this affects the next 48 hours.
Click to expand...

Ian has been stubborn to even move much plus overnight he's definitely bent left. Almost due north.
 
Clearly we have a Cat 5 at this point. That eyewall is going to be hell on Earth this afternoon. Recon had serious issues passing this last time and turned around after going through one time.
 
Snow_chaser said:
I wonder why when these monster canes make it all the way up to 155 there seems to be a hesitancy to bump it the 2 mph to a cat 5? Michael was like that, made landfall at the time at 155 and then reclassified to a 5. I know the numbers have to support it, but it seems odd that they classify it that close to a 5.
Click to expand...
I often wonder about that too. There isn't much difference as far as the damage that a strong Cat 4 with winds of 150 MPH causes compared to a minimal Cat 5. Both are going to be devastating and there are several examples of what were considered strong Cat 4 storms that were later reclassified to a Cat 5 after analysis of the effects of a storm on an area. I think a storm with winds of 150 MPH or above should receive a Cat 5 designation.
 
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