FWIW the Euro has less confluence and a weaker high. so... ?
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Just messing with us nowFWIW the Euro has less confluence and a weaker high. so... ?
Sure does, hmmFWIW the Euro has less confluence and a weaker high. so... ?
I think the Euro is very realistic in its shield of ZR, I'd just cut it in 1/2 or 1/4.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Same strength just a bit east of the 00Z or 06Z positionFWIW the Euro has less confluence and a weaker high. so... ?
I just don’t think this is really trending for places outside of places like Winston Salem and mountains ... you need that high pressure further south and or stronger to make anything happen outside of those areas .. maybe sleet onset to rain ?? I’m not trolling either i just really don’t know about this one .. we will see
I’m not trolling either i just really don’t know about this one .. we will see
How is euro with CADs ? Is it exact, to warm or to cool ?
Allan Huffman and Jonathan wall are having good convos about what I’m talking about on Twitter right now .. they know their stuff that’s for sureI just don’t think this is really trending for places outside of places like Winston Salem and mountains ... you need that high pressure further south and or stronger to make anything happen outside of those areas .. maybe sleet onset to rain ??
iGRXY
Member
Couple folks have said it’s too warm at the surface.
Euro is definitely more realistic tbh like said above
Yeah, I saw that. Really good points made by them! We really need the high to be over NY rather than Quebec/Ontario if we're getting an ice storm. I'm still sticking with ZR potential Winston Salem northwestward.
That a meso showing up in VA? ?
Yeah sure is, I just don’t know tbh, normally ukie agrees with euro at this range however euro has been the warmest but slightly more consistent solution
Actually I normally don’t cut ZR totals from euro it’s better than cmc. It is usually a tick too warm that’s when NAM is used. NAM is much better on temps I think east of mtns during cad
Doesn’t take much to make that wedge flex further down the spine. Leaning CAD areas in favored NC areas right now. Light icing event for those areas is my early gut call.
iGRXY
Member
Euro is good on moisture setup but the temp profiles are generally too warm, especially in CAD. Most globals temp profiles should not be trusted as they’re too warm. Mesoscale should be trusted for that
Euro has the right idea not far off. Winter weather advisory maybe a warning near the blue ridge. Any glaze is advisory so a lot of the piedmont included. Sleet-Snow is bonus wiggle room given it’s days away we shall see.
whatalife
Moderator
EURO says it’s not impressed with this event.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Damn perfection/ textbook high location! SE Canada or Upstate NY! I think somebody’s gonna get tree crushing glaze and not the good kind like at KK
Imo I think we should go more with the euro, GFS might be a little bit to cold (doesn’t it have a cold bias ?) same with CMC it’s to cold a lot of the time, NAM should be coming into range soon, let’s see what it shows with regards to thermals over the next few days