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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
I've experienced that first hand on the BR parkway at grandfather snowing there with ice sleet in newland crossnore and at about the same elevation. The cold air from the cad gets pressed up against the escarpment and is the last to erode. Very cool to experience.
iGRXY
Member
Trough appears stronger and further south.
iGRXY
Member
The 50/50 low definitely stronger through hr51
Wouldn’t call it a 50/50 low yet since it’s not in the 50/50 region, but yeah this NAM run looks to have more confluence
iGRXY
Member
True let me rephrase. The LP that will become our 50/50 was stronger and the high was a little stronger as well
It’s the nam towards hour 60 so it’s getting towards it’s more flawed timeframe, but this is stuff that you don’t want to see
(Do not take serious !!)
Only our second glimpse on the NAM and we’ve already been NAMed, smh
Only our second glimpse on the NAM and we’ve already been NAMed, smh
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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NAM is a great model! It’s depiction of today’s event here, was spot on! The totals were inflated, but look and precip lines, were spot on
iGRXY
Member
NAM was 2-3 degrees colder from the previous run and the high was a couple 2 mbars stronger. NAM had pretty significant icing starting as well.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
It also has a pretty big snow event for the MA on Monday. That's a lot of snow cover to our north
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Is this even surprising ?! 
It is a great model but apple to oranges your event was today and ours is still 4 days away. Plus we deal w/ cad you don’t. Not saying it’s right or wrong but it’s likely far from the truth (could go much snowier or cold rain).
iGRXY
Member
It’s quite a bit more snow cover vs the previous run through the MA
Dang. Stephenb888
Member
A jump in what? What is it showing?
That’s a big jumpDang.
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iGRXY
Member
HP is stronger but the cold is pressing much further south and the barbs are much tighter which shows a much harder to erode CAD. NAM in this range has actually been too high on temperatures generally so for us to already be around 30-31 degrees is a scary sign for ICE.
Exactly, not only that the ULL is a tad bit slower over Texas. If it starts moving toward Houston we may receive more precipitation. Greenville-Spartanburg to Charlotte needs to start paying attention for major ZR possibilities.
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Oconeexman
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2m Temps at 7am!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I started using it at 4 days out. It nailed it, while GFS and Euro waffled positions of the low and track
Oconeexman
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DP at 7am
Someone broke the icon
iGRXY
Member
You’re seeing Dewpoints now down into the upper teens into Va and low to mid 20s in NC and SC. That’s not a good sign if you don’t want an ICE storm.
IDK, I would think you would have to see DP about 5 degrees lower up in Virginia during that time for this to be an event east of the mountains or south of I-40
It wouldn’t surprise me if this was a repeat of January 2019, although totals are questionable.
Yeah I agree, there’s still time to trend either way but Temps in the mid to low 30s over dews in the low 20s/upper teens is ideal for a ice storm
That looks about right.
Very expected of this model, but what I find interesting is how much the RGEM follows the CMC/Canadian ensembles with the low track and quicker transfer to the coast Note* (it’s cold biased a bit)
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Interesting, GFS is weakening our would-be 50/50 low a tad 
that trend with our S/W tho 
I wanna bet this run will be a tad warmer because we’re losing those slightly higher heights in Canada/near the GLs
oof I take that back^^....
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
1037 sitting pretty in a better position than 18Z. Nice front end thump of snow even down into Nc this run.
Yep, and the system is getting less amped as well.... Which means less WAA
That trend to a weaker system is beginning to reflect
iGRXY
Member
.This is my thinking right now. The blue is where I see more snow then a transition over to sleet. The Pink area would be more Sleet with a slow transition over to Freezing Rain. The purple area would be Freezing Rain. No accumulations but if we were to see frozen precip as of today, this is what I see is looking like. Below that is just the percentage of where I think we are as of right now to see ICE.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a good catch. Look in the mtns, actually goes back to snow around 18Z Wednesday. Probably for the very reason you’re mentioning.
iGRXY
Member
GFS is trying to erode the CAD as well. Which is a bias of the globals to do. A weaker LP isn't weakening a 1037 HP system.
NoSnowATL
Member
That’s the 1st map I’ve seen someone put it that far south into Georgia
Dews right before the precip, a bit lower than last run, while those upper 20s are still sorta meh, you gotta remember this is a classical CAD, and Low level CAA from The CAD is still happening during the system, really helps to when you system is trending less amped
If I were you, I would move the line out of RDU and CLT, and put the cutoff just over Alamance or GSO. I find that even if CAD gets stronger, it goes further south rather than east. Again, I’ve been burned in setups like this, the cutoff is always further west than modeled, albeit, further south.