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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

wxdaniel said:
His word of the day is “onset”

Btw thanks to whoever said they wished the HP would move to upstate New York. You’re getting your wish.

Need to get the chainsaw ready Greenville.


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That's where me and Emerson said it needed to be to get the upstate in play. Classic position and when the General pays off!
 
NWS Raleigh seems a bit more interested than I thought they would be for around here this far out:

Tue night through Wed night: Wet weather is looking like a good bet
mid week, and our next system appears increasingly likely to bring a
risk of wintry weather to central NC, although at this range (day
5), the details remain murky and the uncertainty high. A mid level
trough moving onto the West Coast over the weekend will deepen while
diving into the Southern Plains early Tue, before tracking NE into
the Northeast states through Wed night. The GFS continues to be
quite sheared with this wave as it heads into the E CONUS, but the
latest Canadian and ECMWF are slower, stronger, and generate greater
forcing for ascent across our region, in tandem with increasing
upper divergence and lower level (850 mb) overrunning flow. At the
surface, strong Canadian high pressure (around 1035 mb central
pressure over SW Que Tue evening) nosing southward through central
NC will set us up for a Miller B cyclogenesis pattern, with
strengthening inverted troughing along and W of the S Appalachians
and coastal cyclogenesis just off the Carolina coast, trending
toward a weakening of the inverted trough as the coastal low
intensifies Wed and tracks NNE along the Mid Atlantic coast. It`s
still not entirely clear how much of the polar air and lower
dewpoints we`ll be able to tap into as the precip arrives. But based
on good model agreement regarding the density and origin of the
incoming parent high pressure and the cyclogenesis pattern, as well
as on the increasingly moist mid levels (suggesting a better chance
that there will be ice in the clouds), the risk of wintry weather is
growing, especially across the climatologically-favored N and W
Piedmont. Will keep the forecast simple for now, showing a rain/snow
mix across much of the Piedmont Tue night into Wed morning. But the
climatology of this pattern would suggest we`ll start out with a
light rain and light sleet mix at the onset Tue night, trending to a
freezing rain/sleet mix in the Piedmont before switching to mostly
freezing rain in the NW Piedmont by Wed morning and eventually
becoming mostly or all rain as the growing warm nose aloft
overwhelms the thermal structure. Again, though, this is still
several days away, and a lot can change, especially with a system
that is still out over the Pacific and likely not being well-
sampled. Stay tuned. Expect lows in the 30s Tue night, highs from
around 40 NW to mid-upper 50s SE Wed, and lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s Wed night.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Also, temps were the mid-low 20's when the storm started across central NC. This time around, things are much more marginal.View attachment 57262
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We stayed around 26-29 most of that storm in Greenville! Never saw a flake of snow, but had way more sleet than was forecasted
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really ready for the nam to come into range here, wonder if it can sniff out whether we’re gonna have a ice storm or whether we can get away with it with IP, my parents told me that dec 2002 storm was bad, I don’t remember it myself
Here’s to hoping we can somehow keep cooling that 925mb layer
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I lived in Concord during that December 2002 Ice Storm and it was every bit as bad as what I’m sure parents say. That storm also had that initial front end thump of snow then sleet that only amounted to about a 1/2 inch, but then when the ZR started it was the absolute perfect condition for the ice to accrue. 18 hours straight of light rain with the temp hovering between 28-30
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
gotta give it to you birdman you stuck with this storm and said it would get colder
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Thank you. If current trends continue, sleet would be more dangerous on roadways than ZR given the mild temps prior and current ground temps. Sleet takes time to melt and roadways would simply not keep up and sleet sticks on top of of each other versus freezing rain that would simply not stick to roads such as i40 or i77. I expect the heavier totals to be the typical northern foothills with extreme drop offs going to Mooresville south where it’s more of a light glaze issue. Still watching tho could change for them.
 
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No winter storm warnings expected here given sleet or freezing rain will keep any snow totals below 3”. You are not allowed to use Ice Storm warnings when ANY snow is predicted. Blacksburg/Raleigh follows this but GSP doesn’t always. I could see Winter Storm Watch then Winter Weather Advisory. Sleet will likely kill any ZR totals from going over a tenth or two of an inch.
 
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