Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Here's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.

ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA

Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)

weather.us

View attachment 57260

Yeah I thought so. Don't think we will see the snow part but maybe sleet

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[Webberweather53]

Here's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.

ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA

Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)

weather.us

View attachment 57260

ERA-5 shows way too much snow here esp east of the mtns

 

[Ollie Williams]

Here's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.

ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA

Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)

weather.us

View attachment 57260

Also, temps were the mid-low 20's when the storm started across central NC. This time around, things are much more marginal.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Flizzard

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Flizzard View attachment 57263

Onset snow!

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[Myfrotho704_]

Yikea

 

[jackendrickwx]

Of course the ice storm trends inside 100 hours

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is way weaker with initial system that develops the 50/50, hmmmm

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Of course the ice storm trends inside 100 hours
View attachment 57265

Wow the strength of some of those CAD signals going all the way into Georgia ... leads me to believe we could have a long way to go with this one (in terms of how much that high can trend even colder and closer)

 

[iGRXY]

CMC still pops a 1038 H in a good position so the cold air would definitely be stout.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We still have 4 days until this arrives.... please trend to sleet

 

[Broken024]

Brad p starting to honk

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Wont say who, but a certain met just tweeted out a lot of cold rain for Tuesday Wednesday system. Said some ice could mix in for favored CAD areas. LOL I can’t even.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Brad p starting to honk

It's quite early for him

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[FortMillSCWx]

He's been burned many times. Smartly waves the super conservative flag "favored" areas aak Mountains and NW Piedmont.

 

[iGRXY]

Wont say who, but a certain met just tweeted out a lot of cold rain for Tuesday Wednesday system. Said some ice could mix in for favored CAD areas. LOL I can’t even.

So Brad P lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a lot

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Really could go either way at this point. This is when the small stuff starts to matter between 30 degree ZR and 32-33 degree heavy rain. Can we pop a meso high? Too early to tell. I will say that usually when things are this marginal at this lead, at least for my area down in the upstate, they usually turn out to be chilly rain. This one has my attention though. Once again, I’ll play.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC could honestly be much bigger, it’s not even strong with our first low that becomes the 50/50 yet manages to give NC a winter storm...
This thing basically has more potential to get colder imo

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

heres what That dec 2002 ice storm looked like if y’all aren’t familiar View attachment 57256

That was a good one! We had a couple good ice storms back in the early 2000’s here. I can still close my eyes and remember the sound of branches snapping. I stayed at my buddies, either 2000 or 2002, and half a tree fell and slammed his chimney in the middle of the night. Nearly knocked the house off the foundation. Fun times.