I think if a high pressure like that was a bittttt further south it would help us out more
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No doubt there's some seriously cold air over the CAD source region in Quebec & Ontario, widespread -20s on the DWD-ICON Wed am over top fresh snow cover.
Avalanche
Member
Funny our local mets raised the temp for this storm from 45 to 48. I knew Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill was never in the game anyways, but still comical.
Looks like the northeast may see some snow from the first system as well (per other models) on the first system that moves through, I wonder if it’s non-negligible and actually has a effect if system one lays down more snow in the NE/upper Mid Atlantic (at least more then what the icon shows)
iGRXY
Member
Cold source is pushing further south, trending stronger. If you live from GSP to CLT I think this is going to be a damaging ice storm. I40 corridor is looking like a sleet fest.
Clem282340
Member
What about Pickens county sc
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Is that down there where the horse is in the river or is that Pacolet?
iGRXY
Member
The heat dome around the lakes always has temperatures higher but the town of Pickens likely would be in on the ZR too.
I don't listen to local / TV mets. They have to play to the general audience, which means they're usually very conservative (which I understand why). They will start to catch up as the storm gets closer (and if it continues to show a wintery look). But, honestly you need to get your information from the NWS discussions and surprisingly from this site. There is a lot of really smart people here.
RAH NWS discussion: National Weather Service Text Product Display
GSP isn’t biting yet, which seems appropriate
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Idk, I read their discussion and it’s pretty appropriate/bullish for about 100 hours out.
Clem282340
Member
I live in liberty just south of Pickens
RVD
Meteorology Student
I was thinking about this too earlier. It looks like for this setup the GFS (for instance) shows a lot of rain for non-mountain areas, but it seems to mostly be a struggle with surface temps. That could be overcome if precip is undermodeled, and maybe we could lay down some snow cover in PA or even down to MD. At a glance, NAM shows more widespread snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our wave early next week that creates the big 50-50 low which sets this whole storm up looking stronger so far on the GFS. Ugh
Clem282340
Member
I don’t think so
Table setter 
Maybe we can say it’s trending that way... but without good model support for a situation like that I don’t think we can say for sure something like this is to happen. Do I believe we are trending this way just with all the things we know about biases and such? Yes. But nothings really been reflected too much in modeling and the euro 06z ensembles were .. eh if ur thinking major ice storm for Raleigh-Fayetteville on south west .... we really need this puppy in NAM range so we can really pull her apart and look under the hood a bit better
I’ve been watching that front slow way down (as you just posted). Does it have any real affect on our Wednesday system?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wave pattern amplifying more on the 12z GFS so far, likely gonna translate to even stronger/colder CAD on this run.
This trend can stop now, thanks.
This trend can stop now, thanks.
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