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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Nick_boynton_ said:
Allan Huffman and Jonathan wall are having good convos about what I’m talking about on Twitter right now .. they know their stuff that’s for sure
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Yeah can't disagree with their thoughts. Most models only get RDUs dew down into the mid 20s and we may be losing the real quality tap into the cold dry feed by Wednesday morning. Still wouldn't be surprised to see a start as sleet or a period of 32/32 freezing rain
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Imo I think we should go more with the euro, GFS might be a little bit to cold (doesn’t it have a cold bias ?) same with CMC it’s to cold a lot of the time, NAM should be coming into range soon, let’s see what it shows with regards to thermals over the next few days
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Idk man I feel like I remember the euro being too warm at 2m in some previous CAD scenarios but that could have been before the upgrades. Thing is right now we are in a situation where 2-3 degrees makes such a big difference.
 
whatalife said:
EURO says it’s not impressed with this event.


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No its not. And until you have the Euro you don't have a chance. I'll believe that until I get burned by it. And so far I haven't. NC foothills are in play for minor event and thats it. Could change but not likely.
 
SD said:
Idk man I feel like I remember the euro being too warm at 2m in some previous CAD scenarios but that could have been before the upgrades. Thing is right now we are in a situation where 2-3 degrees makes such a big difference.
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That’s a good point, we just gotta wait for NAM at this point, because euro for many areas was rain and 33-35 which is to close of a call
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
No its not. And until you have the Euro you don't have a chance. I'll believe that until I get burned by it. And so far I haven't. NC foothills are in play for minor event and thats it. Could change but not likely.
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True, but we got burned by it last February. Every single model had us with snow, while the Euro and its ensembles kept us mostly rain until 24 hours before the event.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
No its not. And until you have the Euro you don't have a chance. I'll believe that until I get burned by it. And so far I haven't. NC foothills are in play for minor event and thats it. Could change but not likely.
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Euro hasn’t been great lately either tho, for example last February’s snow in NC it was suppressed even when the CAMs showed something and the NAM/GFS/CMC/UK showed something
I still agree it’s probably one of the best models right now but all models have taken a hit especially from C19 and lack of planes getting data
 
So catching up, yeah I think the Euro is the way to go. With dew points marginal, surface temps marginal, I just don't see any real issues other than mountains and north of I-40 perhaps. For MBY some token ice then rain is what I'm expecting. I'll be watching surface temps and dew points but so far I'm not really impressed for the southern piedmont.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro hasn’t been great lately either tho, for example last February’s snow in NC it was suppressed even when the CAMs showed something and the NAM/GFS/CMC/UK showed something
I still agree it’s probably one of the best models right now but all models have taken a hit especially from C19 and lack of planes getting data
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Euro in years past has had some trouble with 2m Temps and Dp with Cad events. At least down here and into ne GA. But howling has it been since we've had a decent Cad event and the upgrades since the...so who knows. Will be fun to see how it scores and its still not a good idea to bet against. Mesoscale is for sure the way to go with so many variables and a couple degrees here and there meaning sooo much with these.
This idea on Ukie of a Meso high developing in VA has me more interested...could really help areas that aren't quite cold enough at the beginning(not ONSET)..LOL
 
Tarheel1 said:
Damn perfection/ textbook high location! SE Canada or Upstate NY! I think somebody’s gonna get tree crushing glaze and not the good kind like at KK
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Can't believe you're in Iowa and not here awaiting a 33 rain! But that high location has trended very favorable for us..Its gonna be slick in NC for sure..not sure if we get in on it or not
 
Euro had been nowhere near where it used to be since Covid. It definitely has its flaws and even in the past overdid the temperatures for CAD by 2-4 degrees around here during past events
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Y'all do you realize just a couple of days ago the Euro showed a snow storm for the Mid-South for Monday lol

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Of course. Like any model beyond 7 days it isn't great. But by 96 hrs it has a handle on the pattern and very rarely trends favorable around here this close to an event. I hate that model with a passion but respect it. I love the CMC but know it's full of ----
 
The European suite is the least enthusiastic about the 50/50 low. While basically every other model has trended this feature stronger and/or further SW, the Euro had it weaker and further NE at 12z than previous runs. This feature is over SW Canada right now, so it's a little bizarre to see this sort of disagreement. I guess hopefully that means we'll get a consensus soon? Maybe?
 
Sleet City USA said:
Another thing GSP is talking about some potential onset flurries before midnight Tuesday night, they actually have a slight chance of a mix IMBY 9-11pm Tuesday. GFS showed this today
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I have noticed in the past it’s not uncommon for those guys to go by two different models on two different shifts.

1st - GFS
2nd - Euro


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FallsLake said:
I don't listen to local / TV mets. They have to play to the general audience, which means they're usually very conservative (which I understand why). They will start to catch up as the storm gets closer (and if it continues to show a wintery look). But, honestly you need to get your information from the NWS discussions and surprisingly from this site. There is a lot of really smart people here.

RAH NWS discussion: National Weather Service Text Product Display
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Youve completely missed the point.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS has been trending unfavorably for wintry precip, might be the start of something here View attachment 57300
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Euro is hard to beat inside 3-5 days usually. Like someone said earlier it is usually a couple degrees to warm with the CAD though. What I'm more concerned with is not being very much moisture and a fast mover.......... I'm going to bet models move towards the EURO in the next few runs. But hope I'm wrong!!
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Euro is hard to beat inside 3-5 days usually. Like someone said earlier it is usually a couple degrees to warm with the CAD though. What I'm more concerned with is not being very much moisture and a fast mover.......... I'm going to bet models move towards the EURO in the next few runs. But hope I'm wrong!!
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Agree with this, euro/eps is really hard to beat at this range, this is there time to shine 90% of the time
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Euro is hard to beat inside 3-5 days usually. Like someone said earlier it is usually a couple degrees to warm with the CAD though. What I'm more concerned with is not being very much moisture and a fast mover.......... I'm going to bet models move towards the EURO in the next few runs. But hope I'm wrong!!
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Hmm.. RAH AFD...


The main forecast challenge in the long term is precipitation types
for the next system Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cold air at the
surface will be in place as precipitation develops Tuesday night,
and temperatures will only increase to the 30s for most areas in the
Triad and near the NC/VA border through the day. Although some snow
may be mixed in at times, this looks more like a Miller Type B
scenario which would yield a better likelihood of freezing
rain/sleet for the NW Piedmont. Forecast soundings continue to show
a warm nose in the lower-levels that would melt falling
precipitation, and where surface temps are below freezing, freezing
rain would be possible. There could be brief periods early Wednesday
morning and late Wednesday evening that a rain/snow/sleet mix could
reach as far southeast as the western edge of the Triangle, but
considering this event is days away, confidence remains low. Total
precipitation from the storm is currently around 0.50".
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Frozen precip breaking out at hour 84 on nam
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I’d be wary of putting stock in the 84 hour NAM. It’s probably about as reliable as the GFS is 5-6 days out. That’s not to say it’s wrong, I’d just focus more on ops/ens than meso models right now.
 
Sleet City USA said:
I’d be wary of putting stock in the 84 hour NAM. It’s probably about as reliable as the GFS is 5-6 days out. That’s not to say it’s wrong, I’d just focus more on ops/ens than meso models right now.
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I don't think he/and anybody else was necessarily taking stock in what it has, more-so just a report on what it has verbatim, and you're right, that's the way to go.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I don't think he/and anybody else was necessarily taking stock in what it has, more-so just a report on what it has verbatim, and you're right, that's the way to go.
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Sure, I’m just making sure we all know lol. A reminder since we tend to get all excited about NAMs
 
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