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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)


Things that you hate to see: That ^

Knowing that global NWP models almost always underestimate CAD and we still have another 3-4 days for this to keep trending towards more intense/colder CAD, this trend is making me a bit nervous for folks in the central-eastern piedmont of NC & upstate SC.
 
So kinda like what the pre event before the big one on Feb 12th did, (which helped to amplify the cold air with snow pack just to the North) I wonder if we can get this first event Monday to overproduce, which will lay somewhat of a snow cover to our North, which may help deepen the cold air for the Carolinas. I specifically remember here in the Midlands, it trending colder at the last second 12 before the storm. We went from being in the worst forecasted area of ice to just North of it, which eventually led to catastrophic ice totals South of Columbia. I think maybe that first event could be a variable in what the mid week storm does. Just a thought.
 
Of course the ice storm trends inside 100 hours
View attachment 57265
Wow the strength of some of those CAD signals going all the way into Georgia ... leads me to believe we could have a long way to go with this one (in terms of how much that high can trend even colder and closer)
 
He's been burned many times. Smartly waves the super conservative flag "favored" areas aak Mountains and NW Piedmont.
 
Really could go either way at this point. This is when the small stuff starts to matter between 30 degree ZR and 32-33 degree heavy rain. Can we pop a meso high? Too early to tell. I will say that usually when things are this marginal at this lead, at least for my area down in the upstate, they usually turn out to be chilly rain. This one has my attention though. Once again, I’ll play.
 
CMC could honestly be much bigger, it’s not even strong with our first low that becomes the 50/50 yet manages to give NC a winter storm...
This thing basically has more potential to get colder imo A15276BA-978D-4446-9230-AA68FE6278BF.png
 
heres what That dec 2002 ice storm looked like if y’all aren’t familiar View attachment 57256
That was a good one! We had a couple good ice storms back in the early 2000’s here. I can still close my eyes and remember the sound of branches snapping. I stayed at my buddies, either 2000 or 2002, and half a tree fell and slammed his chimney in the middle of the night. Nearly knocked the house off the foundation. Fun times.
 
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