A More amped first system is no beuno since it means stronger/further south 50/50 low
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things that you hate to see: That ^
Knowing that global NWP models almost always underestimate CAD and we still have another 3-4 days for this to keep trending towards more intense/colder CAD, this trend is making me a bit nervous for folks in the central-eastern piedmont of NC & upstate SC.
So kinda like what the pre event before the big one on Feb 12th did, (which helped to amplify the cold air with snow pack just to the North) I wonder if we can get this first event Monday to overproduce, which will lay somewhat of a snow cover to our North, which may help deepen the cold air for the Carolinas. I specifically remember here in the Midlands, it trending colder at the last second 12 before the storm. We went from being in the worst forecasted area of ice to just North of it, which eventually led to catastrophic ice totals South of Columbia. I think maybe that first event could be a variable in what the mid week storm does. Just a thought.
Plus, if the NE gets snow cover, we can maximize the effects of a CAD.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GFS HAS ONSET SNOW
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Poop
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
jeremy.ashley79
Member
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Anyway this translate to more of a snow event for central Piedmont of NC?
This one is gonna be lights out in NC
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not at all. Could possibly translate to more of a sleet storm
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These types of sharp cutoffs like the GFS always fringe over GSO.
iGRXY
Member
Figured that was gonna happen sooner or later
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The scary part is the GFS sucks with CAD.
I’ll pass thanks
Freezing rain for many areas for up to 12-15 hours.... that’ll do damage 
heres what That dec 2002 ice storm looked like if y’all aren’t familiar 
Yup....I live in the most vulnerable neighborhood in Charlotte. In 2002 it was devastated. I think a week without power.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
If I'm not mistaken didn't that storm start out with snow and ip?
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Here's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.
ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA
Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)
weather.us
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I thought so. Don't think we will see the snow part but maybe sleetHere's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.
View attachment 57260ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA
Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.
View attachment 57260ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA
Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)
ERA-5 shows way too much snow here esp east of the mtns
Also, temps were the mid-low 20's when the storm started across central NC. This time around, things are much more marginal.Here's the ERA5 analysis for the storm. That one started out with a lot of snow over NC.
View attachment 57260ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis) | 12/04/2002, 03:00pm | USA
Historical weather maps from 12/04/2002, 03:00pm, USA - Significant Weather | ECMWF ERA5 (Reanalysis)
Flizzard 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yikea
Of course the ice storm trends inside 100 hours
CMC is way weaker with initial system that develops the 50/50, hmmmm 
Wow the strength of some of those CAD signals going all the way into Georgia ... leads me to believe we could have a long way to go with this one (in terms of how much that high can trend even colder and closer)
iGRXY
Member
CMC still pops a 1038 H in a good position so the cold air would definitely be stout.
We still have 4 days until this arrives.... please trend to sleet
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Brad p starting to honk
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wont say who, but a certain met just tweeted out a lot of cold rain for Tuesday Wednesday system. Said some ice could mix in for favored CAD areas. LOL I can’t even.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
He's been burned many times. Smartly waves the super conservative flag "favored" areas aak Mountains and NW Piedmont.
iGRXY
Member
So Brad P lol
That’s a lot 
Really could go either way at this point. This is when the small stuff starts to matter between 30 degree ZR and 32-33 degree heavy rain. Can we pop a meso high? Too early to tell. I will say that usually when things are this marginal at this lead, at least for my area down in the upstate, they usually turn out to be chilly rain. This one has my attention though. Once again, I’ll play.
CMC could honestly be much bigger, it’s not even strong with our first low that becomes the 50/50 yet manages to give NC a winter storm...
This thing basically has more potential to get colder imo
This thing basically has more potential to get colder imo
That was a good one! We had a couple good ice storms back in the early 2000’s here. I can still close my eyes and remember the sound of branches snapping. I stayed at my buddies, either 2000 or 2002, and half a tree fell and slammed his chimney in the middle of the night. Nearly knocked the house off the foundation. Fun times.