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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

That's where me and Emerson said it needed to be to get the upstate in play. Classic position and when the General pays off!
Yessir. Wedges usually mean 33-35 and rain IMBY. However, a few of those ensembles show the wedge turning the corner in north GA and heading up the great valley into TN. That’s the ones that get us good.
 
When do the next models of any importance come out?

Monday-Tuesday. While we will begin to get a general consensus over today/tomorrow, we won't know the specifics until then. Once the short-range models start coming into play. And once the NAM gets to its time range, we can start sniffing out those warm noses and such. And as always, as quickly the models showed this storm, they can just as easily rip it away. Leaving us in the dust. Seen/been there countless times.
 
It just seems that it is the general consensus on here that a winter storm can disappear in a matter of hours the closer you get...but no one ever seems to think one can get better organized (more cold, etc) the closer we get. Why is that? I’m guessing too many fails.
Monday-Tuesday. While we will begin to get a general consensus over today/tomorrow, we won't know the specifics until then. Once the short-range models start coming into play. And once the NAM gets to its time range, we can start sniffing out those warm noses and such. And as always, as quickly the models showed this storm, they can just as easily rip it away. Leaving us in the dust. Seen/been there countless times.
 
Among other things, if we can get our southern stream wave to be over the TX/OK panhandle instead of closer to the MS river & Arkansas-Missouri at this time step on the GFS, we'd have basically optimal synoptic-scale timing here to allow our low-level cold/dry air mass to build in and become well established ahead of this storm. Right now, while it's not bad overall, it's just a little too fast and our cold air doesn't have as much time as it ideally should have to maximize our chances for snow/ice.

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It's the kind of trend that's very doable even inside day 2 and the GEFS is certainly trending this way.


Yesterday's 12z GEFS at 84 hr had the wave over the Ozarks already by 0z Wed

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Today's 12z GEFS is now over east-central Oklahoma 0z Wed. Another shift like that towards the TX & OK panhandle and we're basically right where we wanna be for this storm synoptically wrt timing and southern stream wave placement


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I think the NAM is the model to pay the most attention to with regard to thermals once it gets into range. So, a couple more days...
Yeah and the Hrrrv4 since it goes out to 48 hours now, they removed the terrible boundary layer mixing bias /issues where it would scour out CAD to fast I think to
 
It just seems that it is the general consensus on here that a winter storm can disappear in a matter of hours the closer you get...but no one ever seems to think one can get better organized (more cold, etc) the closer we get. Why is that? I’m guessing too many fails.
I honestly can't answer that. I guess because of so many fails. One big rule here is you need the cold already in place. When you don't have that and you're already marginal on temps 4 days out it usually doesn't end well.
 
Among other things, if we can get our southern stream wave to be over the TX/OK panhandle instead of closer to the MS river & Arkansas-Missouri at this time step on the GFS, we'd have basically optimal synoptic-scale timing here to allow our low-level cold/dry air mass to build in and become well established ahead of this storm.
It's the kind of trend that's very doable even inside day 2 and the GEFS is certainly trending this way.
Yesterday's 12z GEFS at 84 hr had the wave over the Ozarks already by 0z Wed
Today's 12z GEFS is now over east-central Oklahoma 0z Wed. Another shift like that towards the TX & OK panhandle and we're basically right where we wanna be for this storm synoptically wrt timing and southern stream wave placement
To add, while the op euro is good it often completely misses how much dry air/cold actually gets deposited in the foothills/piedmont even at hour zero. Ensembles and short range NAM are the ones to watch now. No reason to stay up for a high res op euro when it can’t handle surface conditions across the cad particularly north and west.
 
I honestly can't answer that. I guess because of so many fails. One big rule here is you need the cold already in place. When you don't have that and you're already marginal on temps 4 days out it usually doesn't end well.
Yep. If we can get sleet tho that could enhance the cad and create a layer of freezing conditions at the surface. Otherwise most people are tracking a brief glaze of ice on metal surfaces etc.
 
ICON is slightly colder than last run, even with a slightly weaker CAD, and a even closer call for Charlotte
12z
EC55AEE0-6BD7-4A23-A91E-067BAC09DC03.png18z
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Mentioned the NAM, it's way out there and certainly can change but even it's not cold enough for east of the mountains at this point.

View attachment 57315
Yeah that’s never good. You want ZR breaking out in Macon GA once the NAM gets into range tbh
 
To add, while the op euro is good it often completely misses how much dry air/cold actually gets deposited in the foothills/piedmont even at hour zero. Ensembles and short range NAM are the ones to watch now. No reason to stay up for a high res op euro when it can’t handle surface conditions across the cad particularly north and west.

This x100. The NAM, RGEM, & perhaps even the CMC are worth staying up for when we get closer, the ECMWF historically hasn't been that great w/ CAD.
 
As of right now what locations do you think gas the best shot for a serious ice storm or maybe they get cold enough and get a bit of snow as well?

Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
 
This x100. The NAM, RGEM, & perhaps even the CMC are worth staying up for when we get closer, the ECMWF historically hasn't been that great w/ CAD.
I can buy that. And I'll stop being so pessimistic over Euro runs. It may have a warm bias somewhat. But I do know for a fact the CMC and the GFS has been too cold even for CAD events in the last few years. That said I think a blend of the two is usually the way to go. At this moment I really don't see this being an issue for GSP, CLT and GSO. Hickory to Wilkes maybe some ice but not buying a major storm at the moment. Just my opinion.
 
Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
I am now in Anderson, SC. Been watching this. Think we have a decent shot?
 
I can tell you from personal experience living in this h3ll hole we call Anderson, it will be a cold rain and you can take that to the bank. Anything else and I would be amazed.
Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
 
GFS basically has the same coverage of ZR with a slight decrease outside of the main affected areas. However it backed off on accums
 
I can tell you from personal experience living in this h3ll hole we call Anderson, it will be a cold rain and you can take that to the bank. Anything else and I would be amazed.

I've been burned too many times inside the short range on strong CADs like this to assume 3-4 days out that the upstate of SC will remain entirely liquid in this event.
 
View attachment 57322
I'd be amazed if this low pressure placement verifies on 00z Thursday. GFS does not respect the CAD.
Been saying these globals love to run LP into CAD. No one truly thinks this low would run right into a 1037 HP? The NAM, RGEM, and maybe CMC for temp profiles and maybe the globals for general moisture timing and output at this point and time should be used, IMO.
 
I’m not really sure where this one goes mods, so move as needed.
What are you seeing that’s got you so bullish on this one?
I'm curious as well. A 1037 high is strong. But just because the high is the same strength as some previous bad storms probably doesn't mean the same result. Seems like every one would perform differently. Allan Huffman says the high is too far NE.
 
We are just in the communication stage. SREF, bufkit, NAM are days away for professional use. Anyone telling you the county or amount is trolling you. Science is not there yet nor will it be in your life time.
 
Most know their climo, if you do well in Miller B’s your likely to get a solid event, maybe storm level for Triad and 77 corridor with this setup. GFS continues to look lackluster at 500mb, it’s really a strung out mess vs amplification of the trough axis. We want the primary developing off GA with a wholesale transfer underway before it makes it to latitude of HAT, further south the better. Climo strongly supports a track along the natural baroclinic zone just offshore, I’d be surprised to see a B track just inland through VA and the MA, it’s happened just not often.
 
Im new to all of these models and stuff, but is there any chance a high pressure could come in ALOT colder than expected? Or is it usually always pretty accurate within a few degrees.
 
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